Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Recommended Posts

Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

npsh500.png

A powerful UK high and a vortex that looks as if it's melting... good signs going forward.

Model's still having mishaps stratosphere-wise though.

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gifECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

The more progressive MJO trend has continued with today's updates - another good sign. Something's up with the obs data though. I remember seeing something similar during the big stratospheric warming of mid-Feb this year.

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

A wee bitty nippy, methinks!:cold: Netweather GFS Image

But ends on a rather disappointing note: Netweather GFS Image

But probably nothing to worry about, in the grand scheme of things.

Edited by Ed Stone
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

So far to day 10 

GFS, fairly quiet with high pressure over the top of us, unfortunately there are decaying weather fronts trapped underneath with lots of mild air aloft so unfortunately we don't see surface cold develop. High single figures likely.

gfs-0-144.png?12   gfs-0-192.png?12   gfs-0-240.png?12

GEM has the high further south into week 2, if anything this brings mild or even very mild conditions into the fray, especially in the north where there will be more breeze and the risk of more changeable conditions.

gem-0-144.png?12   gem-0-192.png?12   gem-0-240.png?12

Hopefully as the strat warming takes effect we will see the position of the high move northwards a little bit.

 

Edited by Captain Shortwave
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)

No one mentioned the strat on the 12z, a v good split ending with this.

231AFCAD-6133-4FB5-BA98-760415443203.png

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted
8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

No one mentioned the strat on the 12z, a v good split ending with this.

231AFCAD-6133-4FB5-BA98-760415443203.png

Split?...don't see one but I do see an old man playing basketball.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Split?...don't see one but I do see an old man playing basketball.

There isnt a split on GFS..

Clearly the model is not backing down..

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

No one mentioned the strat on the 12z, a v good split ending with this.

231AFCAD-6133-4FB5-BA98-760415443203.png

Its a displacement - here is the corresponding height chart.

https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2018122212&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its a displacement - here is the corresponding height chart.

https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2018122212&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

Yep, my bad. Ok, well on a positive note the GEFS are good again. 

Nice.

CF8261C9-5307-490C-BAF2-6093AADF5918.png

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
Posted

Can't post anything due to lack of wifi but some very exciting GEFS ensembles again! Lots of Greenland blocking, iceland ridging and even a couple of scandi blocks. Heighest 500mb mean area of uncertainty by t300 is directly over iceland, which says everything for how things have positively evolved in last 48hours on NWP

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yep, my bad. Ok, well on a positive note the GEFS are good again. 

Yes, NW flow might actually deliver non-marginal events at this time of the year and a proper N'ly might ensue.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted
6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yep, my bad. Ok, well on a positive note the GEFS are good again. 

Looking at the spread from around D12 you can see that the GEFS are clueless. Whether that is a precursor to a change only more runs will tell:

tempresult_bne4.gif

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
3 minutes ago, IDO said:

Looking at the spread from around D12 you can see that the GEFS are clueless. Whether that is a precursor to a change only more runs will tell:

tempresult_bne4.gif

Spreads will always be big at that timeframe though, it just takes one member to go off on a tangent surely?  clusters more revealing surely?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Spreads will always be big at that timeframe though, it just takes one member to go off on a tangent surely?  clusters more revealing surely?

Same thing, about 4 clusters in FI covering most possible outcomes, hence the spread:

gens_panel_qzn5.png

Not many conclusions from that set.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Same thing, about 4 clusters in FI covering most possible outcomes, hence the spread:

gens_panel_qzn5.png

Not many conclusions from that set.

Yes, the high is pretty much nailed on longitude but massive variation on lattitude.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
Just now, karyo said:

GFS p is stuck on 156 hours.

Drones sighted in the area!

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted
2 minutes ago, karyo said:

GFS p is stuck on 156 hours.

It’s more or less completed on Wetterzentrale.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted

Think it was Nick that mentioned about the energy coming off the Eastern seaboard being the biggest factor in how North our HP gets. The latest LP doesn`t have much energy but one of those weird times you want it to fire up a bit and trough/drag up our HP 

gfsnh-0-156.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Kirkcaldy Weather Maestro

Kirkcaldy Weather

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Popular Post
Posted

Some from the 12z GEFS

gensnh-10-1-384.thumb.png.2b4a97192003041c2ed095c3a0c7f311.pnggensnh-10-0-384.thumb.png.18275b283eaf8bf1d7105e4546af2bfd.pnggensnh-12-1-384.thumb.png.d5eaa50c79ec847688fcd5eadf71ca8d.pnggensnh-12-0-384.thumb.png.541814f7bb6415ee242bbe10f42392a8.pnggensnh-16-1-384.thumb.png.e650a2da782988daae489477a25f0e39.pnggensnh-16-0-384.thumb.png.feb2efe9a3670d3519d8e58282c981e5.pnggensnh-20-1-384.thumb.png.aaa010117ca6816ac94a9a2ec19154ee.pnggensnh-4-7-384.thumb.png.dadd983ab7fc9d930b8b8dbbbe61efd1.pnggensnh-9-7-384.thumb.png.72d3d3b731eb30a109165b5257053a65.pnggensnh-11-7-384.thumb.png.65579d416aa657306329c3bc6edaa065.png 

gensnh-13-7-372.thumb.png.8d47b582eb235d3915f9792e299353fe.pnggensnh-14-7-384.thumb.png.0fdcf52cfb9bb61bc99a5d67c11e9c22.pnggensnh-16-7-384.thumb.png.339e0ab65b6b81ec6d9080bc78093bdd.png 

tempresult_mws1.thumb.gif.5aae842ab1500b3c25c57976571575bd.gif

I still believe that things will get interesting from a cold / snow POV from the 2nd week of Jan onward (8th Jan onward)   ❄️

  • Like 9
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Badgers01 Seasoned

Badgers01

Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
Posted
16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its not great ..

Uk high/mid Atlantic high til the end..

 

and a weakened pv could keep us locked into that pattern... cold is by no means a certainty.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
1 minute ago, Badgers01 said:

and a weakened pv could keep us locked into that pattern... cold is by no means a certainty.

 

You have perfectly stated the importance of the displacement placement. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...