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Paul

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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1 minute ago, KTtom said:

Obviously frustration is getting to a few in here...

 

My original point was that strat charts used to be confined to the strat thread, the model thread used to contain numerous NWP output charts, the fact there have been very few over the last few days speaks volumes for the output. Even in the mildest winters you used to get some outrageous fi charts to post. 

I know its frustrating mate but keep your pecker up..

IMO things slowly improving this morning, esp wrt EC and its mean.. 🙂

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I wouldn`t be too upset if the GFSP gave me this scenario for my Birthday. HP transitions nicely to Scandi.

gfsnh-1-288.png

Jan 4

 

gfsnh-0-312.png

Edited by Stuie W

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Zonal wind speed at 60’N increased to 28.6 at midnight. This was forecast and could indicate why NWP is showing such strength in the Jet stream. The good news is that this will fall like a stone from today to a possible reversal around the 28th. This should severely deflate energy in the jet stream around the New Year. The question is whether the models have factored this in? 

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2 minutes ago, Shunter said:

Zonal wind speed at 60’N increased to 28.6 at midnight. This was forecast and could indicate why NWP is showing such strength in the Jet stream. The good news is that this will fall like a stone from today to a possible reversal around the 28th. This should severely deflate energy in the jet stream around the New Year. The question is whether the models have factored this in? 

I suspect EC is now factoring it in, the high gets far enough north at day 10 to offer optimism of a change..

But of course there could be a lot of volatility over the coming days..only yesterday Exeter were musing over an unsettled spell early Jan, EC not having much to do with that this morning..

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By Jan the 6th, not a great deal of blocking spotted(Atlantic ridging) and a raging jet straight at us. Plenty of water to pass under the bridge prior to this chart but it`s still a chart with a possible outcome. 

gfs-5-372.png

Edited by Stuie W

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Just now, Stuie W said:

By Jan the 6th, not a great deal of blocking spotted and a raging jet straight at us. Plenty of water to pass under the bridge prior to this chart but it`s still a chart with a possible outcome. 

gfs-5-372.png

GFS/EC chalk and cheese stu..

No cross model agreement for end of Dec onwards ..

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS/EC chalk and cheese stu..

No cross model agreement for end of Dec onwards ..

Yes mate, all FI and no agreement at all. I suppose what it does show is that there is zero sign of any positives being sniffed out by the models at this distance by matters above.

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Just now, swilliam said:

Pretty good split on the GEFS mean against the operational anyway.

gensnh-21-7-384.thumb.png.b584e09eb16f9fa2c9bc882aff13eb26.png

The positing not great though

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The positing not great though

Thats being generous !!

'Tis a GEFS mean though so i'm sure we wont lose any sleep over that chart..

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2 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Hope Mods don't mind me posting this in here. I remember reading a post by Stuart Rampling (Glacier Point), in the Strat, Thread a few weeks ago. Stuart mentioned Dec.1984/Jan.1985, in his post, not sure if he mentioned it regarding a possible analogue Winter. But as we head towards 2019, the current output, reminds me very much of Xmas 1984. I was about to move back down to S.E.London from Lincolnshire. 

                  XMAS DAY 1984

archives-1984-12-25-0-0.png

Quite an active Jet Stream away to our N.W., with a ridge from a mid-latitude high appearing, in the far west.

                 27th DEC.1984

archives-1984-12-27-12-0.png

This was the day of my move, back south. As you can see above, the Atlantic is starting to hit a brick wall. In Lincoln the day was characterised by freezing fog and thick frost. These conditions continued for much of the day and there was thick freezing fog by the time I got back to London, in the early evening.

                 29th DEC.1984

archives-1984-12-29-12-0.png

By this time, positive heights started to transfer N.E. towards Scandinavia.

archives-1985-1-5-0-0.png

Which led to the above, just over a week later. Around 3 inches of snow at my new address, in S,E,London.

My point being that Model output may not be very appealing at the moment but should a SSW come to fruition as forecast, Model output will likely change very suddenly.

Apologies to Mods if this post has been too OT but just wanted to share this experience with members. No need for some of the despondency in here, at times. Patience is certainly the "watchword", at the moment!!

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

 

 

Mods could you just allow this one indulgence, I rarely post as I tend to meander and get suspended, but I have to reply to Tom as nostalgia is not what it used to be. Okay that said: Tom I was born of Camberwell Grove and played at the age of ten in the snow  in Camberwell Grove itself  in the great winter of 62/63 . Someones name on this forum sums up that winter perfectly. 'Froze were the days'.  Sorry mods , but it is the season of good will.

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00Z GFS only has reversal of -0.1m/s for 6 hrs [u60] despite the large warming attack it gets subjected to 

Spoiler

🤐

 

eee.PNG

Edited by thetipster

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GEFS SLP ensemble showing signs of going doolally after January 3rd, when the 850s start to fall off:

GEFS Ensembles Chart  GEFS Ensembles Chart

Not much in the way of a coherent signal, just yet...Patience, patience, patience!

Edited by Ed Stone

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Clusters did eventually update last night. By D15, a couple of "nearly but not quite" clusters for an arctic-like outbreak (1 and 5), apart from that it looks quite average though still a fair chance of a cold high influencing our shores 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018122112_360.

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42 minutes ago, jethro said:

I've had a word with the Angel of snow, she says she's very sorry that her plans of making our Christmas dreams come true aren't going to happen but promises that all the ingredients are in stock and will be delivered soon. Apparently the chiefs up high still aren't happy that some foolish earthling decided to shift the date of Christmas by 13 days and are sticklers for tradition, they insist January 7th is Christmas day so if we fools want a White Christmas, they'll deliver it then.

2253_1091282435193_8475_n.jpg

is that harry redknapp ? 🙂

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Pretty impressive chart, looks as is if the PV is directly over our heads? Precipitation associated with that chart shows snow over most of the UK

 

gfs-0-384.png

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1 minute ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

Pretty impressive chart, looks as is if the PV is directly over our heads? Precipitation associated with that chart shows snow over most of the UK

 

gfs-0-384.png

Unlike to see snow from this chart, at least not on low ground.

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It would be good to see a move from the GFS 06 hrs run towards the 00hrs ICON.

We’re looking for more dig south west of the upstream  troughing  , this might then downstream force a shortwave to run over the high and drop south further west .

This would then push the high further nw . Barring that we’ll have to wait a bit longer for some improvements.

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The only remaining questions, for the Xmas-NY period, would seem to be: How much cloud? How much sun? How much frost? How much fog?

Netweather GFS Image

Edited by Ed Stone

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50 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Clusters did eventually update last night. By D15, a couple of "nearly but not quite" clusters for an arctic-like outbreak (1 and 5), apart from that it looks quite average though still a fair chance of a cold high influencing our shores 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018122112_360.

How do they look this morning? The de Bilt ensemble looks much colder in the from New year's day on

 

eps_pluim_tt_06260.png

 

(click on image to see correct version) 

Edited by ArHu3

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Some improvement in the GFS 06 hrs run but it’s still flatter with the Pacific shortwave running towards the Great Lakes .

This downstream flattens the Canadian high , the more amplified that is the more dig south of the troughing to the west and the better chance of pulling the high north .

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Some improvement in the GFS 06 hrs run but it’s still flatter with the Pacific shortwave running towards the Great Lakes .

This downstream flattens the Canadian high , the more amplified that is the more dig south of the troughing to the west and the better chance of pulling the high north .

They have any musings on this state side Nick, What are they expecting? As modelled or...

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ECM ens

EDM1-144.GIF?22-12   EDM1-192.GIF?22-12   EDM1-240.GIF?22-12

High pressure building over the UK perhaps more robustly than the first attempt, the key as we head into the New Year is to develop a more omega like shape to the ridge to cut off that warm air advection and split the jet which will allow the high to lift further north. As of yet no strong signals for this to occur.

GEFs keep the high pretty much over the UK until the end of the extended suite which takes us to the second week of January. I must admit we haven't seen an extended anticyclonic spell in winter for a long time but we could be on the cusp of one here. Hopefully we will develop some surface cold at least, the worst solution would for the UK to get trapped under a load of Atlantic low cloud for weeks with temperatures remaining near normal by day and fairly mild by night.

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