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Paul

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Look at the stamps the crucial timeframe seems to be circa day 8 or 9 when the strongest segment of the PV over the pole and Greenland area starts to make a move, you only need to glance at the plethora of options amongst the ensembles to see that as of yet what happens to the vortex is a real guessing game.

 

There’s certainly something going on CIRCA day 10 because the vortex is being shredded by blocking all over the globe. 🥊 

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Amazing consistency from the models in the medium term so high confidence remains up to D10.

EDH1-240.thumb.gif.ffd2f4049c475b0eae870682fcff2677.gif1229459352_gfsnh-0-240(1).thumb.png.0f8755f68c9c88f2bbd383d909a76a14.pnggemnh-0-240.thumb.png.a00732c0ea4bcbf4218456bbd5678340.pnggensnh-21-1-240.thumb.png.b3a65102457e1dc82c55be73ee0078e6.png

As the experts keep saying, mid-Jan onwards for definitive changes, till then HP UK domination! After D10 expecting trop led changes and hopefully a more meridional flow for when we get any strat downwelling. Of course, we are now getting to the timeline where we could see the models flip to something interesting within a short period of time so interesting times just around the corner!

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12Z para very similar to the 6z run wrt the strat -

Expecting a split on this run..

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Firmly in a holding pattern now with regards model watching in the hunt for cold!  Interesting weather in short supply in the near term, all eyes on the strat, and I'm finding it fascinating.  The models seem to be disagreeing re the SSW when usually you would expect them not to.  Think I agree with others not to trust the GFS, FV3 looks more consistent, ECM the one to watch.  Interesting times, give it until 26th and I think that's when we will start to see big changes in the trop modelling.

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4 minutes ago, IDO said:

Amazing consistency from the models in the medium term so high confidence remains up to D10.

EDH1-240.thumb.gif.ffd2f4049c475b0eae870682fcff2677.gif1229459352_gfsnh-0-240(1).thumb.png.0f8755f68c9c88f2bbd383d909a76a14.pnggemnh-0-240.thumb.png.a00732c0ea4bcbf4218456bbd5678340.pnggensnh-21-1-240.thumb.png.b3a65102457e1dc82c55be73ee0078e6.png

As the experts keep saying, mid-Jan onwards for definitive changes, till then HP UK domination! After D10 expecting trop led changes and hopefully a more meridional flow for when we get any strat downwelling. Of course, we are now getting to the timeline where we could see the models flip to something interesting within a short period of time so interesting times just around the corner!

I'm really hoping this cold spell comes off, I'm sure it was first going to be the week before Christmas and then between Christmas and New year and then the start of January and now I keep hearing mid January onwards. It's definitely looking good but so many winters I've seen this pattern where the date keeps getting pushed further and further ahead and before you know it......

 

Let's hope come Christmas the models start to show some exciting charts ..

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19 minutes ago, legritter said:

I might be totally wrong but we must hang on in there and wait hopefully for some great charts to arrive on our screens .if this forecasted SSW does arrive and our luck is with us and the weather turns wintry in January that will be be half the battle .our squirrels here on mendip have been very active today and they have a look of hope ,think they love being all snug and warm and watching us humans suffer in deep snow and sub zero temperatures, iveven seen them laughing  ,and last year in our Beast from the east they were heard saying bring it on .Great to read all the posts on here , I might not post so much these days but I am always popping in, here's to a mega cold spell ,snow for all  ,from all types of synoptics ,similar to 1947 ,1963  , full frontal  ,convective  , etc etc .I wish all MY fellow weather mates a very good Christmas and New year  and if you are a weather Model ,please bring it on ,cheers gang ,STELLAS ON ME .

happy xmas to you too, shame you dont post as much but understand its been a tough time for you. and as for the Stellas i say cheers and raise my glass to you and your family, keep well and have the best xmas you can and remember your snaw loving friends are always here if you should need us. 

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3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

J hope folk will bear with me as I post the pdf I've been doing on how the 12Z outputs over the last 7 days have shaped up with notes on how the 500 mb anomaly charts also coped. Of course you can skip this post if you do not want to read it so it is not really cluttering the thread up.

Test 2.doc

Yes, GFS usually not that good! But the upcoming pattern was signposted as showing strongly with little standard deviation, well from my reading anyway, so on this analysis no surprise. Thanks.

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1 minute ago, IDO said:

Yes, GFS usually not that good! But the upcoming pattern was signposted as showing strongly with little standard deviation, well from my reading anyway, so on this analysis no surprise. Thanks.

Yes, I think that it was so well signposted on most models that the outcome was never really in doubt. An interesting exercise even so. I'll do another one in a few days.

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8 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

I'm really hoping this cold spell comes off, I'm sure it was first going to be the week before Christmas and then between Christmas and New year and then the start of January and now I keep hearing mid January onwards. It's definitely looking good but so many winters I've seen this pattern where the date keeps getting pushed further and further ahead and before you know it......

 

Let's hope come Christmas the models start to show some exciting charts ..

That was never the case. We had the same claims early this year that the cold was being put further and further back, which wasn’t true. Pretty irritating.

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4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

That was never the case. We had the same claims early this year that the cold was being put further and further back, which wasn’t true. Pretty irritating.

But it has happened in previous winters..

Just the way it goes I suppose..  The weather will do what it wants to do... 

 

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16 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

I'm really hoping this cold spell comes off, I'm sure it was first going to be the week before Christmas and then between Christmas and New year and then the start of January and now I keep hearing mid January onwards. It's definitely looking good but so many winters I've seen this pattern where the date keeps getting pushed further and further ahead and before you know it......

 

Let's hope come Christmas the models start to show some exciting charts ..

Agree with this, increases the uncertainty, but if we do get cold mid Jan, will be more effective than it would be in Dec, more likely into Feb, when the Atlantic isn't as energetic

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2 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

But it has happened in previous winters..

Just the way it goes I suppose..  The weather will do what it wants to do... 

 

So it’s not happened this year like you just said?

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Dreary me the para is soooooooooo slow coming out!!

Does anyone know the reason why??

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17 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

I'm really hoping this cold spell comes off, I'm sure it was first going to be the week before Christmas and then between Christmas and New year and then the start of January and now I keep hearing mid January onwards. It's definitely looking good but so many winters I've seen this pattern where the date keeps getting pushed further and further ahead and before you know it......

 

Let's hope come Christmas the models start to show some exciting charts ..

That's my recollection too, BFTE, and your timeline is also correct: the cold was originally 'expected' to start during the week after Xmas (or possibly just before) and then put back to early January. It's now been postponed until mid-January...Indeed, things do look good, very good in fact, but misleading one's self into thinking it's always been a 'mid-January' thing is plain daft, IMO...

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It has never been before Christmas. Am I reading different posts to everyone else? I’m sorry but such rubbish gets on my nerves. The Met Office outlooks, the posts from the most knowledgeable posters and the strat forecasts have all been about early January at the earliest for weeks.

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4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

So it’s not happened this year like you just said?

Yes, from when it was first mentioned that Christmas period was looking very interesting.... You only have to go back through the previous hunt for cold thread.. 

Its only my opinion, I won't loose any sleep over it and yes January suits me fine as it's a proper winter month. Would prefer Jan or Feb anytime over March. 🖒

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first it was just after xmas then first week of jan,now mid jan,until feb,then it be late jan to mid,feb,then early feb till late feb,etc,then it be spring 🤣

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2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

first it was just after xmas then first week of jan,now mid jan,until feb,then it be late jan to mid,feb,then early feb till late feb,etc,then it be spring 🤣

Read my signature, this isn't a new thing haha 🙂

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11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Dreary me the para is soooooooooo slow coming out!!

Does anyone know the reason why??

Not sure but it looks close to what Ian F was saying earlier and the chart he used (ECMWF on 30 Dec) so I expect heights to head towards Scandy with a v good looking FI

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The earliest the strat warming was ever forecast for was just after Christmas, with there always being a lag to the trop response ranging from a few days to a couple of weeks. Therefore, the talk of significant cold has never been before or around Christmas. The only way that would work would be if time was to run backwards.

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Might not have been strat related but there were plenty of people touting a cold spell mid month to Xmas.

looks like a good Fi coming up on the Para 

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