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Paul

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Select the month (12) - select the day (20th) then just leave it there and keep refreshing until you see the am time (10:35) - become 22xx  then when it does, click on the 00z, scroll down to the first thing you see that has a 22xx time stamp on it.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/12/20/

oh i see, I was just being an inpatient TIT 🤣

Cheers 

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Hate to go off topic but GFS 18z has the most flabby pointless  area of 'high',pressure over us by T 152

image.thumb.jpg.a8e20099edd977579201edbdd836897c.jpg

Roll on the SSW, OK it does what it does, hope the dice fall favourable for UK cold, probably just need more than a 2!

 

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13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

No QTR to the proposed SSW?

Not on an ensemble mean output ..... no 

would hope to see the two week downwelling signature begin to show weeks five and six 

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Hate to go off topic but GFS 18z has the most flabby pointless  area of 'high',pressure over us by T 152

image.thumb.jpg.a8e20099edd977579201edbdd836897c.jpg

Roll on the SSW, OK it does what it does, hope the dice fall favourable for UK cold, probably just need more than a 2!

 

I'm actually looking forward to it. Crisp, clear nights and sunny days. Things starting to get interesting from 29/30 onwards. I'll take it over rain lol!

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The way its going the parallel will be out before the 46.

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6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

No easterly on the 18z Run

Could be right, evening run is slightly flatter, but there’s not a great deal of difference between 18Z +198 and 12z +204 in terms of the core ingredients at surface level. Everything is still roughly as you were

 

53AEFBE2-4DE2-49E1-9818-1EE570BEF681.png

B43CD3E8-D68F-4A9C-B656-AF84DD7BBB8D.png

Edited by ITSY

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11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The way its going the parallel will be out before the 46.

Surely nothing is that slow?!

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3 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

How is NWP meant to cope with this when even 4 models across the strat cannot agree... Peak Eddy Heat Flux anomalies inbound within the next 24-48 hrs.

Simply put - not a chance any output has a ghost of a chance on reconciling on the NWP basis.

The most we can hope for is some kind of continuity in the strat vis a vis the technical reversal - as for the trop - it's a crap shoot.

I believe the phrase FergieWeather coined was Shannon Entropy - this more than any other phrase is redolent now.

 

 

image.thumb.png.aa75979fd339ec1ca4357b733ac92799.pnggfs_nh-ehflx_20181220.thumb.png.27e69ab1e0d18a720c6f2422b957b12f.png

Or on the other hand, does anybody really know how good or bad the NWP is? I know the point about the strat forecasts being more reliable than the trop forecasts but the fact remains that all the ensembles across the various models today are c**p. One would expect some degree of volatility in the ensembles by now but scant signs of this.

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That has to be a record breaking positive AO right there

GFSOPNH18_360_1.png

 

Absolutely disgusting run in all levels of the atmosphere.

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1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

 What a FANTASTIC 18z this isn't...

Don't worry, the GFS(P) is reversing out of the blocks, might save the day if you've got the stamina to see it finish 😜

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1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

 What a FANTASTIC 18z this isn't...

Have you got anymore info regarding 18z any charts please thank you.🙂

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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec46 is yummy for coldies as the block edges nw week 3 and the scrussian trough backs west to sit across nw Europe week 4

the model then works its way to the WeatherBell winter anomoly I have posted several times already and which it has consistently showed last three runs ...... think late seventies ......

Good news then Nick , at least it’s consistent with previous runs . Now all we need is for it to count down 👍

Edited by ICE COLD
Don’t make sense ☹️

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4 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

 What a FANTASTIC 18z this isn't...

Your time will come 

 

 

E43FE15C-956A-4797-B66C-B1B7765CE8D0.jpeg

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11 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

 What a FANTASTIC 18z this isn't...

Wouldn’t worry too much about what NWP charts are showing beyond day 5. Until the Strat forecast is resolved anything NWP models show is unlikely to be right.

Having said that, EC46 is very cold week 3/4..

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14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

the model then works its way to the WeatherBell winter anomoly I have posted several times already and which it has consistently showed last three runs ...... think late seventies ......

He tweeted that when you posted this , eeerie 

54F50B72-A78E-45AA-BC7E-AABF4F81CD74.jpeg

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I'm looking at that AO signature and thinking, once the SSW effects break that up, somewhere in the mid latitudes is going to experience a historic winter cold event during January...

Exactly, the bigger the balloon the bigger the bang when it pops. i kind of get the feeling that things are going to happen very suddenly during January, the gun is loaded the safety is off and finger is on the trigger, time to take aim and hit the bulls eye.

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Looks like a very exciting couple of weeks model viewing coming up. Just in time for the holidays 🙂

Edited by blizzard81

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7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm looking at that AO signature and thinking, once the SSW effects break that up, somewhere in the mid latitudes is going to experience a historic winter cold event during January...

Britain of course!! Just need things to go our way...... Not too much to ask, is it?!

😂

Edited by Don

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The positive vibe has increased markedly as the day has progressed on here today and justifiably so imo. Much better news model wise (both strat and trop) as the day has gone on.

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