Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    Just now, frosty ground said:

    gfseu-0-276.png?12

    Can it hold, And more importantly can we get a  repeat!

    Another push of WAA up the east of Greenland maybe 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 5.1k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Last one from me for 6 weeks before I leave in the morning for Canada . Our experts we use in resort have told me that todays upper air soundings over the Russian Arctic are showing Easterlies now est

    After a health scare I have had the best news ever and been given the all clear. What a year it has been weather wise.Just like to take the opportunity to wish Paul,all The moderating team a

    Afternoon so 2 hours on the train should be plenty of time for a post- The last 2 weeks the projected SSW has gradually worked through the models & is now 'imminent' ~ 30hours away is when we

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    That'll do nicely before any SSW effects :spiteful:

    gfsnh-0-300.png?12gfsnh-1-312.png?12

    1050 scandi high no less :shok:

    Edited by karlos1983
    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    As nice as the GFS looks.. I’m not buying it. 

    The GFS has been all over the place these last few days, little support for a Scandi high far enough North on the EPS as per 12z GFS

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

    As nice as the GFS looks.. I’m not buying it. 

    The GFS has been all over the place these last few days, little support for a Scandi high far enough North on the EPS as per 12z GFS

    Let’s see if it’s backed by the GEFS, we are not talking deep FI here. Still, this has nothing to do with the SSW so just some “potential “ pre curser maybe. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

    Alllll . This should cheer this place up ?

    6AE56817-AC0A-4310-8D1C-15915B091F0E.png

    5A2AA568-FF77-4B62-9C44-0AC4221BFB84.png

    For 6 hours anyway ????

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Scandi is boring, lets head to Greenland ?

    gfsnh-0-336.png?12

    Edited by karlos1983
    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Loading up/lining up!!.

     

    The drivers/forcing being picked up now via raw output..scandi sweep...then retro  look favoured...=cold...then very cold..

    Drop-downs via time params..coming...via gaing suites!!

    gfsnh-0-360.png

    gfsnh-0-312.png

    Edited by tight isobar
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    So models continue to show a high for Christmas -dry,maybe a frost but nothing exciting.However way up above in the higher level of the Stratosphere the warming will be underway.No reason to expect dramatic changes yet at 500hPa level but over the coming couple of weeks the weakening of the pv will get going as the warmer temps filter down and we should then start to see the NWP reflecting this in it's later frames.

    The encouraging theme in the meantime is the continued attempts at Atlantic/Iberian ridging sending further warming into the pv.The high could be better placed to start with but it does hold back the Atlantic and all the while the cold to our east continues to build.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    I'd bank that run all day long.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    1 minute ago, kumquat said:

    Who cares if it verifies? Just nice to see a decent chart after recent dross!

    gfsnh-1-312.png?12

    exactly!!! there is no pleasing some people :wallbash:

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    I'd bank that run all day long.

    So would I !!

    Not sure but i feel UKMO a bit further south than GFS(With the High) at 144 so lets hold our horses, so to speak..

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    This is exactly what I'd hoped to see, when I made my 'BOOM' post, during this morning's FV3...Not only did I not expect to actually see it, it might even be part of a trend...12Z FV3 here we come!:santa-emoji:

    Netweather GFS Image

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Better run in the strat from gfs op

    the scandi ridge development is my favoured route based on previous eps  suites ..... that gfs op looks plausible to me but perhaps a bit rushed

    any qtr from the ssw could change this scenario 

    Note the gem op driving an Alaskan ridge at the time that the vortex is displaced and the reversal is about due to commence 

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

    A lovely HP with chilly sunny days and frosty, foggy mornings for a week or so, followed by something of the snowy and colder kind. Like the cold spells of old. Yes please.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Uh oh what’s this about.....

    E57907FA-A63D-41E0-8E2B-61E2600D7E9C.thumb.png.b9b2e8ce09325b3437d760944dc00d82.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
    • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
    • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
    • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...