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Paul

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Just now, frosty ground said:

gfseu-0-276.png?12

Can it hold, And more importantly can we get a  repeat!

Another push of WAA up the east of Greenland maybe 

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That'll do nicely before any SSW effects :spiteful:

gfsnh-0-300.png?12gfsnh-1-312.png?12

1050 scandi high no less :shok:

Edited by karlos1983

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As nice as the GFS looks.. I’m not buying it. 

The GFS has been all over the place these last few days, little support for a Scandi high far enough North on the EPS as per 12z GFS

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

As nice as the GFS looks.. I’m not buying it. 

The GFS has been all over the place these last few days, little support for a Scandi high far enough North on the EPS as per 12z GFS

Let’s see if it’s backed by the GEFS, we are not talking deep FI here. Still, this has nothing to do with the SSW so just some “potential “ pre curser maybe. 

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Alllll . This should cheer this place up 😍

6AE56817-AC0A-4310-8D1C-15915B091F0E.png

5A2AA568-FF77-4B62-9C44-0AC4221BFB84.png

For 6 hours anyway 😩😩😂😂

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Scandi is boring, lets head to Greenland 😉

gfsnh-0-336.png?12

Edited by karlos1983

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33 minutes ago, snowray said:

Temps will likely get well into the 20s in parts of Spain, and they regularly get more snow than us. I know where I'm going to move to when I retire....:oldlaugh:

75-580SP.gif

That looks so lovely! If this rain doesn't let up soon in south Wales I may just book a week in Benidorm in January I think lol 

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Loading up/lining up!!.

 

The drivers/forcing being picked up now via raw output..scandi sweep...then retro  look favoured...=cold...then very cold..

Drop-downs via time params..coming...via gaing suites!!

gfsnh-0-360.png

gfsnh-0-312.png

Edited by tight isobar

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So models continue to show a high for Christmas -dry,maybe a frost but nothing exciting.However way up above in the higher level of the Stratosphere the warming will be underway.No reason to expect dramatic changes yet at 500hPa level but over the coming couple of weeks the weakening of the pv will get going as the warmer temps filter down and we should then start to see the NWP reflecting this in it's later frames.

The encouraging theme in the meantime is the continued attempts at Atlantic/Iberian ridging sending further warming into the pv.The high could be better placed to start with but it does hold back the Atlantic and all the while the cold to our east continues to build.

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prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.0fb1ffe9416c0e478a6252f522caa94b.png

Snow. 

And so it begins.... ❄️

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1 minute ago, kumquat said:

Who cares if it verifies? Just nice to see a decent chart after recent dross!

gfsnh-1-312.png?12

exactly!!! there is no pleasing some people :wallbash:

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

I'd bank that run all day long.

So would I !!

Not sure but i feel UKMO a bit further south than GFS(With the High) at 144 so lets hold our horses, so to speak..

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This is exactly what I'd hoped to see, when I made my 'BOOM' post, during this morning's FV3...Not only did I not expect to actually see it, it might even be part of a trend...12Z FV3 here we come!:santa-emoji:

Netweather GFS Image

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Better run in the strat from gfs op

the scandi ridge development is my favoured route based on previous eps  suites ..... that gfs op looks plausible to me but perhaps a bit rushed

any qtr from the ssw could change this scenario 

Note the gem op driving an Alaskan ridge at the time that the vortex is displaced and the reversal is about due to commence 

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A lovely HP with chilly sunny days and frosty, foggy mornings for a week or so, followed by something of the snowy and colder kind. Like the cold spells of old. Yes please.

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