Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

4 hours to put a bed together.

i digress......

KIng size with draws, was a 30 min dinner break in that as well. the box said 2 person job, i said na just bring me my pint cans of Stella. 

Edited December 19, 2018 by Guest

[matty40s]

2 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

4 hours to put a bed together.

i digress......

Gotta test it, speshly if you will be stuck in it January with 50 foot snowdrifts round the house.

It is very interesting to watch the behind the scenes SSW models and synoptics progress as expected as the normal day to day models just proceed on as norml not seeing the high level changes. GFS has definitely had some tweaking this year, last year it was still championing the Atlantic 3 days after the SSW. ECM seems to have borrowed their discarded algorithms. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Ok,who hacked the ecm this morning!

the thin blue line

 

[Duane S.]

4 hours ago, Singularity said:

Never mind the SSW for now - as exciting as that is, we've got forcing from the tropics helping us out beforehand. The models have made a major hash of detecting new deep convection initiating in the C Pacific, and that has a correlation with a negative NAO... hence my disapproving comments earlier today on the way the models have been behaving of late.

These adjustments are likely to be a bit jittery though; with the models having to suddenly revise their route forward, a wide range of solutions are likely to crop up - but generally, I advise suspicion whenever a run doesn't manage to at the very least have ridges nosing across Iceland from the UK to give an easterly 'drift' across S UK. Could be a classic period of surface-based cold coming up - I can remember a few such festive weeks of weather in years past and the usability of such conditions is much appreciated. Here in the rural south,  we could do with freezing up all the muck from the recent rains .

Totally agree. I’m am surprised we haven’t seen more movement north west of our Christmas week high for the same reason. Nothing spectacular, just less of this sinking SE’wards business. One to watch in the next day or two.

[Spah1]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Ok,who hacked the ecm this morning!

the thin blue line

 

eh? 

[shaky]

Big change icon again!!high further west and colder air across eastern uk!!could get some really sharp frosts in time for christmas!!

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

eh? 

The blue line is missing from it... 

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks like the Christmas period will see at last a settled period ,great news for Christmas travel .. bad news for Fog to develop....

[ALL ABOARD]

Icon slightly better at 120.

18z




12z



 

[feb1991blizzard]

CFS starting to smell the coffee, the CFS usually does need to start coming on board around the middle of the proceeding month when we get a really cold month, you would like to see it come on board  a bit earlier but it can be  volatile, nearly always though they do come on board by 15th - 20th.

EDIT ; By come on board i don't mean every run has to show cold, but when you go on the means of the last 8 runs on the NOAA site, you need to see some sort of blocking pattern.

Edited December 19, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Mucka]

After some brief promise of blocking in the run up to Xmas and Xmas at least being seasonal the output has been relentlessly poor.

In fact, if it weren't for the good news in the strat thread and MetO forecast I would say the output is dire.

Barring a dramatic reversal the rest of December is already looking a write of for snow chances but waiting to see how January turns out with all the excitement around a SSW and split PV will be fascinating.

 

Edited December 19, 2018 by Mucka

[shaky]

1 minute ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Icon slightly better at 120.

18z




12z



 

Infact its a huge change look how far north the high goes and how amplified it is!!

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

CFS starting to smell the coffee,

Now, I really am starting to worry!

[johnholmes]

This is trending the right way, I usually reckon if there is a rapid rise of at least 10C then about 15 days from it first crossing the 'average' line, then a cold spell can quite often occur in the UK/w Europe!

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

[ICE COLD]

42 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Scrolling on this page is killing me phone likely to hit the wall soon!  Twitter posts

Now now k . Are you sure the reason your phones gonna hit the wall is to do with tweets on here or the 0:2 on the telly . 

GEFS starting to smell some coffee towards the end . Nothing very cold yet , but at least there’s a few starting to drop . 

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

CFS starting to smell the coffee, the CFS usually does need to start coming on board around the middle of the proceeding month when we get a really cold month, you would like to see it come on board  a bit earlier but it can be  volatile, nearly always though they do come on board by 15th - 20th.

EDIT ; By come on board i don't mean every run has to show cold, but when you go on the means of the last 8 runs on the NOAA site, you need to see some sort of blocking pattern.

=Coffee For Snow

[Allseasons-Si]

11 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

This is trending the right way, I usually reckon if there is a rapid rise of at least 10C then about 15 days from it first crossing the 'average' line, then a cold spell can quite often occur in the UK/w Europe!

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

Is that a ramp from you John!

that's two in two days

[Met4Cast]

How long until we start seeing the high push far enough Northwards before we see low pressure systems attempting to undercut?

That's one way the models could suddenly flip to cold. Seems fairly likely high pressure will extend Northwards through or to the West of the UK, fair support amongst the ensembles.

How far North?

[Man With Beard]

There are tonight a significant number of ECM ensembles with monster Highs close to the UK by D15 (1040-1055mb). Many positioned favourably for surface cold - few yet positioned for snowy cold. 

[Allseasons-Si]

The latest from cpc 6-10/8-14 days shows hp getting stronger over the uk,frost and fog could be the form horse over the xmas-new year period,i will take this over this miserable wet cool damp period that we have being seeing of late,we won't see snow over xmas> but i will second this

building blocks!,where will it lead us into the new year?

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Can't wait for tomorrow morning's guaranteed stonkers! Night all...

I bet your lass won't think the same

the gfs not so good as the 12z but i don't think there would be much to resolve overnight.

Edited December 19, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Day_9]

Just check out the strat thread if you need reassurance.  Steady as she blows, eyes forwards.  Cold incoming...

[karlos1983]

44 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Now now k . Are you sure the reason your phones gonna hit the wall is to do with tweets on here or the 0:2 on the telly . 

GEFS starting to smell some coffee towards the end . Nothing very cold yet , but at least there’s a few starting to drop . 

Ouch! Lol, but I’ll refer to it like this, I’d prefer an easterly than a toppler, they’re  a bit Mickey Mouse

[damianslaw]

Up until christmas, a rather drab outlook, but nothing untoward - good for getting out and about last minute christmas shopping, travel etc.. Mild in the main but not especially so, and not feeling so under rain and wind and cloudy skies. 

Come christmas, significant change on the cards shown by all models, high pressure nosing in from the south, the question is where will the high position itself, the models do seem quite odd at the moment, showing pressure ridging north then deflected quickly south into Europe - mmm not sure about that.

With a lacklustre jet, my own hunch is that the high will inflate very quickly over the UK and the theme for the end of the year could be homegrown surface cold, fog and frost, with systems deflected away from the UK. The models are going to struggle over the coming days with this upcoming high - as they often do, so take with a pinch of salt. 

 

[Frosty.]

I just placed an order for P10 GEFS 12z!!!

Edited December 19, 2018 by Frosty.