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Paul

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Much better EPS mean in the mid range with much stronger ridge and further North.

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48 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

much better 

gfsnh-10-384.thumb.png.311d2e0a2756686dc1a8c489608a289d.png

no quick routes back from that! the Lacky band is snapped!!

Is there a pressure chart for that?

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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

 

SSW - Yes

Displacement - Yes

Split - Possibly.. the risk of a split does seem to be growing within the models. 

Ian F recently commented that the split is looking ever more possible, hopefully that will keep showing in the models from now on. 

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3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Ian F recently commented that the split is looking ever more possible, hopefully that will keep showing in the models from now on. 

This?

 

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44 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Cant post them shaky on my phone.. cold xmas eve/ christmas day but gradually turning less cold as the high moves ..

I got it saved as EC snow depth charts on my fone .. obviously you have to change parameters for temperature etc..

Maybe someone else has the link 🙂

You can still post charts using a smart phone. 

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12 minutes ago, matt111 said:

This?

 

I'm now 85/15 in favour of the split, and what I've seen of the 12z models hasn't changed that.  But while that is still no guarantee of UK cold, nonetheless I'm looking forward to cold outbreak ~10 January, I'm committed to a dry January, so much easier if it's a snowy January...

Edited by Mike Poole

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@Mike Poole what time do the Berlin charts update? Not sure I have the right link 😫 still showing yesterday’s 

Edited by karlos1983

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5 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Here's a snippet from latest update of Meto Contingency planners forecast (their December update released this week):

"The chances of disruptive cold weather, such as snow, are also higher than usual."

Excuse my ignorance, I thought that only updated once a month? , it did indeed update again on the 17th , a mid month update , the plot thickens , and mentions a SSW 👀 

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32 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I said at the outset of the 12s was that my primary interest at the moment was trying to understand the strat.  Looking into that a bit more, finally got ECM on board with a zonal wind reversal by T240.  But it's been coming down from higher up, here the Berlin charts from yesterday's 12z, first T144, 2hPa then T168, 3hPa, T192 5hPa, T216 7hPa, T240 10hPa - official SSW.

image.thumb.jpg.3723dadd10620e4c90053fdd12cf4f80.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.294d59101dbee9032f8ace488cbb980f.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.38987e34762490283e8445b19fe53564.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.0f7887f00fe8d616e078af6436c29dd7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.e7bd99316e1abc6cbba8a4f048ef77ba.jpg

And indicating a split vortex at 10hPa. Importantly.

Segue to GFS land.  Latest run still favours no split even T384:

image.thumb.jpg.14f18d3b8c7a7e8a3061aac2c38acdf6.jpg

But the FV3 does go for it, same time:

image.thumb.jpg.1a389c89b31beabafdf639758431e9d1.jpg

Actually recently FV3 has gone for some sort of split out in the 10-16 day range on most of the output but GFS has only occasionally.  But the GFS has much less vertical refinement at the top of the strat, where it seems things are occurring!  Not sure about FV3 re vertical refinement.  And then there's the fact as pointed out by @Interitus that not all GFS or FV3 runs actually show an official SSW at all.

And then the lower resolution GEFS. Full house SSW by Boxing Day on all members for the last three days, today:

image.thumb.jpg.c1c36561dddc6deed676456c9968d260.jpg

So there is a bit of conundrum there, why is GFS/FV3 being a piggy in the middle here, I would suggest watching ECM now it's in range, all the while knowing that the best strat model is GloSea5 - and we can't see it. 

Mike - yesterday’s ec 12z (ref those Berlin charts) was 36/48 hours ahead of today’s output re the split at 10hpa - also a little more amplified with the anomoly to our nnw than is the case now - it’s not unusual for ec op to be over progressive with strat developments and then to have to row back a little - it’s still showing split to be top down though, contrary to gfs ......

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16 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

You can still post charts using a smart phone. 

I cant paste on this rubbish fone..its easy really, just type EC snow depth charts in google and it will direct you.

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8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

@Mike Poole what time do the Berlin charts update? Not sure I have the right link still showing yesterday’s 

The ones I posted were yesterday's, the analysis is on the ECM 12z run,not sure what time we see today's but I'm willing to bet on an upgrade!!

14 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Here's a snippet from latest update of Meto Contingency planners forecast (their December update released this week):

"The chances of disruptive cold weather, such as snow, are also higher than usual."

Very early in the month for this to get updated, normally in the last five days of the month.  Maybe GloSea5 is suggesting more contingency than normal is needed for the contingency planners?  I won't clutter the thread, it's here:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/public-sector/contingency-planners

(Snow lovers should read the precipitation update too)

 

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Is it safe to come in here now😁

9 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

 

 

 

Yes dan,was just about to post the same chart and a ten degree uptick since yesterday,the one on the top right is two days old and it will be interesting to see how it goes over the next few days,you can see the warming  starting to appear at the top right corner(circled black)at 1hpa down to 5hpa,the red circle show the uptick at 10hpa,the bottom right chart shows that we are currently in a wave 1 pattern and there is a slight uptick in wave two towards the end,i have done a little blue scribble with w2 on there and i would like it to follow that😁

pole10_nh.thumb.gif.59c882aba90569088cc7164c14f915c0.gifjikei_tep_nh.thumb.gif.30c3ad11163c01024af924fef6957dfd.gif

i have been following the jma for some time regarding this warming and it has been very consistant(t240-108)

JN240-5.thumb.GIF.366a3f4caddf7071f5e9f4487fae32e7.GIFJN192-5.thumb.GIF.d6bc796aca62f92d566da711267a2b57.GIFJN108-5.thumb.GIF.71eb116c2b925f84403ccdd125e3971e.GIF

and the gefs p10 was a stonker but look at that black hole anomoly:shok:

gensnh-10-5-360.thumb.png.a0d486c7533cd4bc6fd214fe95b85ecb.png

it's nice to see that people have calmed down a lot since this morning,lets keep it that way eh!

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Scrolling on this page is killing me 😫 phone likely to hit the wall soon!  Twitter posts 🤦‍♂️

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I cant paste on this rubbish fone..its easy really, just type EC snow depth charts in google and it will direct you.

Time to splash the cash on an i phone👍📞

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3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Time to splash the cash on an i phone👍📞

Can you post some examples please 🤣

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Scrolling on this page is killing me 😫 phone likely to hit the wall soon!  Twitter posts 🤦‍♂️

I know how you feel, i went away to put me new bed together come back 4 hours later 125 replies so im thinking there must have been some real eye candy stuff to catch up, first 2 pages full of what defines a cold spell or snap, i give up i really do. anyways some interesting strat charts etc this evening are we on the cusp of the 2018/19 WTF moment??

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Just now, More Snow said:

I know how you feel, i went away to put me new bed together come back 4 hours later 125 replies so im thinking there must have been some real eye candy stuff to catch up, first 2 pages full of what defines a cold spell or snap, i give up i really do. anyways some interesting strat charts etc this evening are we on the cusp of the 2018/19 WTF moment??

You don't have to be mad to post in here, MS...But it sure helps!:crazy:🤣

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