Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[Mike Poole 26,767]

Final strat chart from pub run,T384:

Kind of a splitsplacement  -  one distinct displaced lobe, yes but hasn't got all the energy.  Night all ?

[bluearmy 42,787]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

EC clusters T168 — white Christmas chances are dead, sadly:

Into the New Year - that sign for a big UK block remains. Could be very cold underneath, maybe just maybe a stray front could give something a touch snowy at times (bit of an ask if the block is big) 

 

Five equally supported clusters to day 8 MWB ... trop modelling maybe struggling a bit .... want to see the slowing zonal winds on that ec op run to see how they downwell .....could be an explanation 

[bobbydog 14,295]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The GFS 18z is absolutely dyer.

It can't be that bad...

[Man Without Beard 23,377]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Five equally supported clusters to day 8 MWB ... trop modelling maybe struggling a bit .... want to see the slowing zonal winds on that ec op run to see how they downwell .....could be an explanation 

Will be interesting to see how these ensembles handle upcoming events in the stratosphere. If I recall Iast February , the GEFS nailed the Scandi High before the ECM ens did - though singing off a similar page at the moment 

[MR EXTREMES 3,195]

2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

Just been browsing this site, winter 1947

http://www.swanstonweather.co.uk/Pages/SitePlan.htm

Very very good

[Nick F 22,225]

26 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Disgusting 18z. Absolutely hideous and probably the worst I've seen this winter. High pressure to the south and low pressure to the north throughout. Looks completely at odds with all the background signals and strat forecasts, thank goodness. I would post some charts, but people would probably vomit looking at them.

Just a few days after a technical SSW in late January 2009, the pattern still looked like this

 

But when early February came it looked like this ...

Amazing how it can suddenly flip .. food for thought?

Edited December 18, 2018 by Nick F

[Ladyofthestorm 237]

Get that feeling that the 18z is sniffing at a substantial Nly Outbreak post Christmas t175 . The run gives too much emphasis on the Jetstream flattening out, find that hard Ends believe

The end of the run a load of cobble. Typical 18z. 

 

I really don't think the models have a grip on the impact of this SSW event... Yet

 

[MattStoke 5,377]

7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Just a few days after a technical SSW in late January 2009, the pattern still looked like this

 

But when early February came it looked like this ...

Amazing how it can suddenly flip .. food for thought?

Indeed, and I would be surprised if anything like the 18z verified. I’m just disgusted by the hideousness of that run ? Many twists and turns to come, with a lot to be resolved (Thank goodness).

[Quicksilver1989 5,678]

My reaction when seeing the 18z...

Good grief!

Edit, thankfully a mild outlier, even at Christmas

The anticyclonic signal gaining strength now and is the favoured option on New Years Day

 

Edited December 18, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[ITSY 1,856]

Urgh. Best chart is this strat one probably. interesting only because the SPV appears to simply swallow itself whole. Shame it  couldn’t take the op with it. 

Pressure looks certain to rise. The graph looks like Theresa Mays ECG every single morning. It can only get better 

nothing has changed people, sleep well

Edited December 18, 2018 by ITSY

[Devonshire 478]

51 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The GFS 18z is absolutely dyer.

Surely it is not?!

[Guest]

Sat here thinking about past winters and i cant get away from 2016/17 i remember all the background signals etc were in our favour and the more senior guys in here were certain that we were in for a winter to remember everything pointed to it, the bbc even did a special video/forecast to show that the coming winter months of Jan and Feb would be dominated by blocking and cold and snaw chances, even the models were all showing this, and literally within a few days it had all gone boobs up and we had a poxy awful winter. i really do hope we have not stumbled upon that same garden path. 

[northwestsnow 24,477]

53 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The GFS 18z is absolutely dyer.

LOL i could have used stronger words than that !!

Not to waorry, well i for one am not going to lose any sleep over it..

[northwestsnow 24,477]

1 minute ago, More Snow said:

Sat here thinking about past winters and i cant get away from 2016/17 i remember all the background signals etc were in our favour and the more senior guys in here were certain that we were in for a winter to remember everything pointed to it, the bbc even did a special video/forecast to show that the coming winter months of Jan and Feb would be dominated by blocking and cold and snaw chances, even the models were all showing this, and literally within a few days it had all gone boobs up and we had a poxy awful winter. i really do hope we have not stumbled upon that same garden path. 

Nothing is certain for sure, but as it stands i think we are in as good a place as i can remember going into the New year..

Its gripping stuff, i'm confident things will start taking off models wise over the next 2 or 3 days..

[Guest]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Nothing is certain for sure, but as it stands i think we are in as good a place as i can remember going into the New year..

Its gripping stuff, i'm confident things will start taking off models wise over the next 2 or 3 days..

I just have that uneasy feeling.. i hope 100% that im wrong,

[GeordieX9v 613]

Canny high pressure sitting east of the UK towards the end of the para.

[northwestsnow 24,477]

2 minutes ago, More Snow said:

I just have that uneasy feeling.. i hope 100% that im wrong,

Oh i'm always on my guard !

We have lots of things on our side - the zonal winds are crashing in the strat, there is a big SSW incoming, OK it might not work in our favour , but putting these together and reading the chief forecasters views @exeter leads me to believe the charts will start looking good, soon.

Fingers crossed. ?

[northwestsnow 24,477]

para looks more appealing..

[weirpig 9,711]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL i could have used stronger words than that !!

Not to waorry, well i for one am not going to lose any sleep over it..

stick to the para much better  chilly start to the new year  with a easterly  

[northwestsnow 24,477]

Para looks better in the strat too..

 

[karlos1983 21,777]

Almost a split on the para ! Final 2 frames reluctant to load ?‍♂️

That’s Cold play stuck in my head for another 20 mins grhhh  ?

Edited December 19, 2018 by karlos1983

[snowray 6,039]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

para looks more appealing..

Yes, things starting to take shape maybe, and along the same lines as the ECM @ T240 although that is a better chart. Could this be the first signs of our easterly showing up....baby steps.

[karlos1983 21,777]

High pressure certainly seems the dominant feature as we cross from 2018 to 2019!

[northwestsnow 24,477]

Para ends lovely..

 

[cheeky_monkey 3,963]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Para ends lovely..

 

if you watch the animated version first signs that that high starts to move towards Greenland right at the end