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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Last one from me for 6 weeks before I leave in the morning for Canada . Our experts we use in resort have told me that todays upper air soundings over the Russian Arctic are showing Easterlies now est

After a health scare I have had the best news ever and been given the all clear. What a year it has been weather wise.Just like to take the opportunity to wish Paul,all The moderating team a

Afternoon so 2 hours on the train should be plenty of time for a post- The last 2 weeks the projected SSW has gradually worked through the models & is now 'imminent' ~ 30hours away is when we

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6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

EC clusters T168 — white Christmas chances are dead, sadly:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018121812_168.

Into the New Year - that sign for a big UK block remains. Could be very cold underneath, maybe just maybe a stray front could give something a touch snowy at times (bit of an ask if the block is big) 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018121812_348.

 

Five equally supported clusters to day 8 MWB ... trop modelling maybe struggling a bit .... want to see the slowing zonal winds on that ec op run to see how they downwell .....could be an explanation 

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Five equally supported clusters to day 8 MWB ... trop modelling maybe struggling a bit .... want to see the slowing zonal winds on that ec op run to see how they downwell .....could be an explanation 

Will be interesting to see how these ensembles handle upcoming events in the stratosphere. If I recall Iast February , the GEFS nailed the Scandi High before the ECM ens did - though singing off a similar page at the moment 

gens-21-1-348.png

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Get that feeling that the 18z is sniffing at a substantial Nly Outbreak post Christmas t175 . The run gives too much emphasis on the Jetstream flattening out, find that hard Ends believe

The end of the run a load of cobble. Typical 18z. 

 

I really don't think the models have a grip on the impact of this SSW event... Yet

 

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7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Just a few days after a technical SSW in late January 2009, the pattern still looked like this

ERA_1_2009012700_1.thumb.png.ad3b121a0867017a014358af9298fcb6.png

 

But when early February came it looked like this ...

ERA_1_2009020212_1.thumb.png.efb671ef9a05f4348f80cb0397a4d5c7.pngERA_1_2009020200_2.thumb.png.6234f67b8c40e272b58fbb3bf054bf55.png

Amazing how it can suddenly flip .. food for thought?

Indeed, and I would be surprised if anything like the 18z verified. I’m just disgusted by the hideousness of that run ? Many twists and turns to come, with a lot to be resolved (Thank goodness).

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My reaction when seeing the 18z...

Shocked Horrified GIF - Shocked Horrified Amazed GIFs

Good grief!

Edit, thankfully a mild outlier, even at Christmas

image.thumb.png.dc62c026b853f7b545ad7f3e8d214e28.png

The anticyclonic signal gaining strength now and is the favoured option on New Years Day

image.thumb.png.a672bf771a24d49d20fe9f4ef77e7ce6.png

 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Urgh. Best chart is this strat one probably. interesting only because the SPV appears to simply swallow itself whole. Shame it  couldn’t take the op with it. 

Pressure looks certain to rise. The graph looks like Theresa Mays ECG every single morning. It can only get better 

nothing has changed people, sleep well

4A6EF9C4-D4F3-48BD-A8BC-D0ADF236406F.png

601C243A-F2DB-4CBC-813D-27C97D1F39CA.gif

Edited by ITSY
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Sat here thinking about past winters and i cant get away from 2016/17 i remember all the background signals etc were in our favour and the more senior guys in here were certain that we were in for a winter to remember everything pointed to it, the bbc even did a special video/forecast to show that the coming winter months of Jan and Feb would be dominated by blocking and cold and snaw chances, even the models were all showing this, and literally within a few days it had all gone boobs up and we had a poxy awful winter. i really do hope we have not stumbled upon that same garden path. 

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1 minute ago, More Snow said:

Sat here thinking about past winters and i cant get away from 2016/17 i remember all the background signals etc were in our favour and the more senior guys in here were certain that we were in for a winter to remember everything pointed to it, the bbc even did a special video/forecast to show that the coming winter months of Jan and Feb would be dominated by blocking and cold and snaw chances, even the models were all showing this, and literally within a few days it had all gone boobs up and we had a poxy awful winter. i really do hope we have not stumbled upon that same garden path. 

Nothing is certain for sure, but as it stands i think we are in as good a place as i can remember going into the New year..

Its gripping stuff, i'm confident things will start taking off models wise over the next 2 or 3 days..

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Nothing is certain for sure, but as it stands i think we are in as good a place as i can remember going into the New year..

Its gripping stuff, i'm confident things will start taking off models wise over the next 2 or 3 days..

I just have that uneasy feeling.. i hope 100% that im wrong,

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2 minutes ago, More Snow said:

I just have that uneasy feeling.. i hope 100% that im wrong,

Oh i'm always on my guard !

We have lots of things on our side - the zonal winds are crashing in the strat, there is a big SSW incoming, OK it might not work in our favour , but putting these together and reading the chief forecasters views @exeter leads me to believe the charts will start looking good, soon.

Fingers crossed. ?

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL i could have used stronger words than that !!

Not to waorry, well i for one am not going to lose any sleep over it..

stick to the para much better  chilly start to the new year  with a easterly  

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

para looks more appealing..

gfseu-0-300.png?18

Yes, things starting to take shape maybe, and along the same lines as the ECM @ T240 although that is a better chart. Could this be the first signs of our easterly showing up....baby steps.:oldrolleyes:

ECE1-240.png

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