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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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Yawn!:lazy: - get out the ol' perturbations, let's be honest how often do the best one's come off?

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Just now, ArHu3 said:

February 14th 1979

I was -4 years old 🤷‍♂️

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Just now, Decemberof2010 said:

Ptb 12 gets a bit chilly 

 

 

Careful you’ll get told off 🙄

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

February 14th 1979

Not the same

What it does remind me of is a bit like the second half of December 2010

image.thumb.png.f47d10f67411ae42e8c1c61fea92ba70.pngGFSP10EU12_336_1.png

Edited by Weather-history
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Am I in the right place? 

Capture.thumb.PNG.fde1a4e03556d333a653f91cdcbd5562.PNG

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12z para not as amplified as the 6z but still looking good on the nhp.what will the 12z EC bring??😗

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6 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Am I in the right place? 

Capture.thumb.PNG.fde1a4e03556d333a653f91cdcbd5562.PNG

If you're crazy yes!!!🤣🤣🤣

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12 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Yawn!:lazy: - get out the ol' perturbations, let's be honest how often do the best one's come off?

Well never given they are incorrect at T+0!

Good use of perturbations is:

1. Look for how many support the operational run. 

2. Look for clusters indicating possible trends.

Individual perturbations not hugely useful as they are low resolution and start off with tweaked initial data.

So I'm with you Froze.  However, pointing that one out I think is more for the holey mother imagine if that came off point rather than anything else.

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25 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Yawn!:lazy: - get out the ol' perturbations, let's be honest how often do the best one's come off?

Are we back to hunting instead of waiting again

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1 minute ago, Stonethecrows said:

Why is it that people with the more cold sounding screen names are mostly the most negative posters on here? It's like supporting Man Utd but cheering when Liverpool score....very odd 🤔

I'll buck the trend...….cold is coming!!😁😁😁

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

Why is it that people with the more cold sounding screen names are mostly the most negative posters on here? It's like supporting Man Utd but cheering when Liverpool score....very odd 🤔

No its not at all, There's a difference between wanting and predicting.

You can want your team to win but think the other team will.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted (edited)

Definite improved GEFS with P12 a corker (Hello Jan 1987 😍)

image.thumb.png.da8e1792f3ffc37ed6e007ba9c776a68.pngimage.thumb.png.dd78e85efa75facc810021d2d04ed63a.png

o5z

image.thumb.png.efd94f817e290be6434ba85fd7449891.png

12z

image.thumb.png.a07ab8cb0319d840690a36d61b5efc0f.png

👍

Edited by Purga
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Posted (edited)

None of the effects of the SSW where ever really predicted to come into range until about the 15th, finally starting to appear on the models now, exciting times ahead for coldies. Looking good at the moment, fingers crossed. Happy new year 

Edited by Bazray
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Good evening all 😊😊

My first post of 2019 I wish you all a Happy New year. 

We continue from where we left off last year any news on the ECM?

our search for our winter ❄️ wonderland is to continue

speak soon peeps take care

kind regards 😊😊😊😊

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EC moves again at 144hrs?? Very volatile 12z runs

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Think this EC is going to be good at 192 🙂

Hope i'm right ..

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