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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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The GEFS are a real mess .

Some develop some good set ups but rely on a very early phasing upstream with the shortwave before its blown up and headed ne  and amplification. 

This drives a ridge north. What we don’t want is a half way house solution . The GEFS  seems unable to decide which way to go .

 

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Posted (edited)

If we want a more amplified pattern then the Atlantic low needs to become cut off and stall out W/SW rather than phase with the upper trough which results in a flattening of the pattern as the low will then head NE over the block.

If it stalls well out in the Atlantic then that is good news as it allows the the trough on E flank of our ridge to push more S/SE as the ridge is not toppled/forced E by that low and also for another ridge to be built on the stalled lows western flanks.

That is the main cog in this wheel as I see it for better Atlantic sector amplification though the devil would still be in the detail re timing of any phasing later and shortwave activity but essentially cut off and stall that low to prevent it phasing with the upper trough and we have a better chance of a quick pattern change.

If you check the ensembles which phase this low or have it dissipate it to the point it is not a factor you will see the patter flatten through the midterm.

Conversely, so long as the low is cut off and stalled any phasing is at least delayed and it will aid amplification upstream. 

Some ensemble examples below. If you check these progress you will likely note them all go on to be more amplified.

gensnh-18-1-120.pnggensnh-15-1-108.pnggensnh-11-1-126.pnggensnh-9-1-120.pnggensnh-2-1-114.png

 

Edited by Mucka
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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Nope - it’s cos the Niño phase 8 is nowhere near as good as phase 7 for coldies ......

Apperently we are back to neutral even more Nina conditions 

 

 

Edited by ArHu3
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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GEFS are a real mess .

Some develop some good set ups but rely on a very early phasing upstream with the shortwave before its blown up and headed ne  and amplification. 

This drives a ridge north. What we don’t want is a half way house solution . The GEFS  seems unable to decide which way to go .

 

Lets be frank here nick regardless of the mess we know which way its going to go regarding that shortwave earlier on and its the mild and unfavourable way!it happens everytime!!just saying it how it is!!in a situation like this 9 times out of 10 the shortwave buggers everything up even in the long run!!

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Nope - it’s cos the Niño phase 8 is nowhere near as good as phase 7 for coldies ......

Oh right - i hadn't checked that, i had to re-format my hard drive and then as that didn't work get a new laptop so lost all my bookmarks, hence why i had to ask you for the Icelandic site again, i always assumed 7 was good and 8 was even better.

EDIT : its not a very strong nino though.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The GEFS are a real mess .

Some develop some good set ups but rely on a very early phasing upstream with the shortwave before its blown up and headed ne  and amplification. 

This drives a ridge north. What we don’t want is a half way house solution . The GEFS  seems unable to decide which way to go .

Very true, Nick...I've even asked God for a Gricelandavian anticyclone, but I don't think he heard me!:drunk-emoji:

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Posted (edited)

Some cracking ENS again, more very good than there is average/garbage.

Id say this is the best set in FI yet.

Edited by Ali1977
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6 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Apperently we are back to neutral even more Nina conditions 

 

 

This dude is American though so could he be talking about his own backyard? Also, la nina/el nino not though only driver

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8 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Apperently we are back to neutral even more Nina conditions 

 

 

198609921_ScreenShot2018-02-01at15_54_41.thumb.png.04f7376adc27d52fe95ab4d2cf2d42b7.png

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3 minutes ago, fromey said:

According to Dr Amy butler 65/65 ensemble members show a split by 3rd January 

Quite a strong signal then!

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I think we have had to accept for some time that the trop wasn't going to be on our side for any cold/snow pre-SSW, and so it has proved to be. We expected the downwelling circa mid-Jan and this remains on course.

Clearly, from an FI perspective all going to plan:

gens_panel_btv4.png   graphe6_1000_295_143___.thumb.gif.48656d42e5473899dbcb10a739517158.gif

All that is to work out is what the UK gets from this? Certainly, a Pacific Wave looks likely, so how will the initial meridional flow affect our quadrant?  The 2m temps suggest cooling down, but not surprising at this range, many options. Just a matter of counting down the next 2-3 weeks to see where we end up...

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Does a neutral ENSO not mean that, as far as the UK is concerned, we can all but ignore it?🤔

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Mean trough dropping further and further South into mainland Europe.

image.thumb.png.84418912b26bb8e66ea673571da9b520.png

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11 minutes ago, lamppost watcher said:

This dude is American though so could he be talking about his own backyard? Also, la nina/el nino not though only driver

I linked to this tweet for the enso state and which mjo phases would be best for us. American east coast mild is generally good for us though as cold there fires up the Jetstream 

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2 minutes ago, Don said:

Quite a strong signal then!

I’m no meteorologist but I think it’s a good sign 

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I don’t usually like cherry picking individual members but PTB 10 - can someone gif the low res NH plot !  The biggest neg AO ever ????

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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Does a neutral ENSO not mean that, as far as the UK is concerned, we can all but ignore it?🤔

The ENSO is still solidly Nino, he is describing the +SOI values seen in December. This is not unique nor overrides, it is probably more indicative of the event moving to Nina in the summer.

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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Does a neutral ENSO not mean that, as far as the UK is concerned, we can all but ignore it?🤔

Nothing scientific but I compared hellmann numbers for my part of the world to enso state and most colder winters seemed to happen in weak Nino to neutral enso conditions and the more it the more it deviated from neutral /weak Nino the higher the chances for mild winters

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Posted (edited)

tempresult_mkw4.gif

tempresult_mkw4.gif

@bluearmy

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Nice

tempresult_bvx4.gif

Reverse zonality at its finest 

February 14th 1979

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