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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, swfc said:

gFS icon not without interest!!!😉

Yes it was a white knuckle ride getting there . Just about avoids a phasing calamity !

We want the trigger shortwave to not deepen too much because the deeper it is the more it will want to track ne rather than east se.

The overall evolution is a bit different to the ECM but the main thing is no phasing .

Edited by nick sussex
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Just now, swfc said:

gFS icon not without interest!!!😉

Absolutely, Heights popping up all over the arctic, 

C01907E3-1484-40EF-BEF1-FC485192C08B.thumb.png.2ec2677870e8b85476fe1a91863d2616.png

loving the latest view at 10hpa as well, you can see the split starting to evolve now

327FCC3F-E7C7-44EA-9C43-B3D3257ED1F5.thumb.png.2f54fce0df513ce00d2ec3928c78c601.png

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-27.46,80.67,313/loc=0.344,89.895

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I hope all the models follow the ICON this afternoon. It will be such a bonus to get a northerly so soon.

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Would rather the stalled phase 7 than into phase 8 

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UKMO looks a bit meh at 144..

Circular low , little flat?

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Posted (edited)

The UKMO is better than this morning but really blows up the shortwave .

The pattern over the ne of Canada is more amplified , quite a dig sw of energy .

Really could do with the weaker shortwave and more separation .

The GFS is down right ugly at day 6. Flatter upstream and a phasing tragedy .

Edited by nick sussex
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Quite different this to this mornings run

 

1374566D-39EF-433C-9DCD-E8FF970C9725.png

17242EBF-8873-4616-B28A-436381675B1A.png

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Posted (edited)

Could be a good 12z this with a deeper low moving heights into Greenland. 

Edited by DCee

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Posted (edited)

GEM and ICON very similar at T18

Edit - scrub that I'd posted the GEM 0z by mistake, deleted. 

GEM does look promising at T216, but then goes downhill

image.thumb.jpg.36dc9d214af7e1dbbdd5b9e47f75334f.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM and ICON very similar at T180:

image.thumb.jpg.35d4a305d5afa71c4596d6a8365aafbf.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.55a4399fcfde4888513fe1173fa45e86.jpg

 

Unfortunately that’s the GEM 00 hrs the latest has the same GFS phasing tragedy but desperately tries to salvage things later.

If we have phasing the route to cold will take longer. And then relies on a lot going right upstream .

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM and ICON very similar at T18

Edit - scorn that I'd posted the GEM 0z by mistake

Certainly some potential there on the GEM 12z.

gem-0-210.png

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The juices begining to flow..modeling developing a thirst for blocking-and direction for waa.

 

Although any downwelling unlikely noted for a little while...the initial responces are being noted!!

A step...b4 a leap...in the correct direction!!

 

Gfs 12z..for note.

gfsnh-0-156.png

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12z runs so far have notably increased amplification across N America. 12z GFS a tad less so across  Atlantic D6-D7 but that increased upstream amp might lead to a tastier D10+ depending on model’s flat bias...

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43 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Would rather the stalled phase 7 than into phase 8 

Is that because the longer it takes will give us more time to affect the pattern before the inevitable return to the COD at some time?

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blimey!...very quiet on here, haven't looked at GFS 12z in FI - it's obviously showing not a lot in the immortal words of Mr Daniels.

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Things slowly starting to look a bit more interesting. But still a long way to go and there are always so many things that can scupper it.

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Posted (edited)

Och well...The GFS us playing Silly Buggers again. The sooner the Para becomes the real thing, the better!😁

image.thumb.png.60fef4fda051cb9d77d4ea22c01f3d33.png

Was hoping to see several ensemble-members fall through the floor...There's always tomorrow!:drunk-emoji:

image.thumb.png.533baae219aa964a51437a1f735c9f7a.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Is that because the longer it takes will give us more time to affect the pattern before the inevitable return to the COD at some time?

Nope - it’s cos the Niño phase 8 is nowhere near as good as phase 7 for coldies ......

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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Och well...The GFS us playing Silly Buggers again. The sooner the Para becomes the real thing, the better!😁

image.thumb.png.60fef4fda051cb9d77d4ea22c01f3d33.png

Still a plausible solution though, even though it’s not what we want to see!

Not saying you think this Ed, but we have to guard against thinking that the SSW will lead to something good, and it’s only a matter of time before the charts start to show it.

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