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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted (edited)

Regarding the MJO which has been the subject of model disagreements .

We have officially left phase 5 and are into phase 6. The issue now is the amplitude of the signal .

Still no agreement . It depends which forecast you look at , the VP 200 looks good aswell as the MacRitchie scale which speeds that into phase 7. The ECM has a weaker signal , the GEFS stronger .

In terms of ENSO there’s been a drop in temps, we’re now in neutral conditions .

We won’t be battling a rampant El Niño . Taken together with the SSW and the expected progression of the MJO I’m less miserable than I was yesterday about prospects !

Edited by nick sussex
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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Happy New Year everyone .

Hope you all had a good time and are recharged to follow our search for the Holy Grail in 2019 !

Which brings me to the ECM run ! 

In light of recent years I have decided to move to an emergency code red warning . All NW helpline assistants leave  is cancelled . Extra supplies of Prozac have been ordered !

The subject of the emergency is the trigger shortwave due around day 7 . This runs around the ridge and southeast  , it develops low pressure to the south providing support for any high to the n ne .

Longstanding members who have suffered TST Trigger Shortwave Trauma know why I have placed our thread on this emergency warning !

Someone likes a bit of drama.... My pantomime starts in a weeks time. Think they might need someone for Dame.... 

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Happy New Year all...GEFS ensemble for London. I make that eight members ending between -5 and -10C:

image.thumb.png.88869a5ccd75236f212122bbef149379.png

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8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Regarding the MJO which has been the subject of model disagreements .

We have officially left phase 5 and are into phase 6. The issue now is the amplitude of the signal .

Still no agreement . It depends which forecast you look at , the VP 200 looks good aswell as the MacRitchie scale which speeds that into phase 7. The ECM has a weaker signal , the GEFS stronger .

In terms of ENSO there’s been a drop in temps, we’re now in neutral conditions .

We won’t be battling a rampant El Niño . Taken together with the SSW and the expected progression of the MJO I’m less miserable than I was yesterday about prospects !

Nick's on board!

image.thumb.png.4f9bd7093d107e50d309afad6c31cdb7.png

Well, nearly...😁

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9 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes its the ENS filtered to ascending value in table format -

You can view it per scenario as well - its a quicker way of finding the cold runs !

B57C33E5-2C91-41CB-83CA-53576374F244.thumb.png.ac1beced869853dda7499ea7765f92bc.png

Great info......where can one find it on the Meteociel  site ?

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Some places could be a wee bit on the nippy side, this week - especially if/where freezing-fog persists:

 

image.thumb.png.b0dced5bde549326a01c9d9ac56a41a2.png

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Jemma Croton said:

 

☺️

The weather obviously - one thing looks certain, January could be a tad more interesting than what we've just left in December 

Edited by Polar Maritime
Snipped removed quote.

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Posted (edited)

6z gFS at 150hrs looks very interesting imo!! maybe taking a trip towards Greenland here.close but not quite

Edited by swfc

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1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

7th Jan, the general date

I didn't realise how much of difference it made to the charts people been off.

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GFS again fails to deliver that shallow low - against ECM at same time t+168 for comparison 

C273C455-3564-41B7-8790-C35F385A6995.png

92904FF5-7F16-4021-A084-E8497501488E.gif

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Posted (edited)

Could be a good run this shrunken pv and shifting east. 

Edited by Rapodo

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4 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Could be a good run this shrunken pv and shifting east. 

I always expect gfs op to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory........ best way to avoid more disappointment...... not that gfs ops post day 6/7 are in any way important to my day .............

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6 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Could be a good run this shrunken pv and shifting east. 

If we don’t get the short wave feature (as above) then we at least need to see lower heights around the med / Spain to allow the PV to drain south (as per 00z GFSp)  Neither appear to be happening on this run. Let’s hope for a better GFSp in an hour 

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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

.......a Murr sausage is never usually a bad thing in winter .....

 

Unless there's shrinkage from the cold of course

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1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Unless there's shrinkage from the cold of course

Shrinkage is ok - you don’t want it bloated !

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Well not a bad start to the New Year waking up to this! I say wake up, it currently hurts to blink 😫🤕🤕

FF9CC48D-AD08-4D35-A5C4-4167BF82A864.thumb.png.307b7a9c01db762ab994aae5f40e1831.png15ACE30C-9C11-4B2E-ACC9-2519C0F9BF2D.thumb.png.ca4ae6e5cf7fcf540a1b2b4315b0a552.png

it seems an unlikely outcome due to the difficulties of getting there, but good to see!

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, IDO said:

It is for NH (20N-80N).

The number is the 30-day average, higher best,  but daily verification is also plotted. ECM scores high on monthly average but looking at the most recent plots, it performs well below its mean and lower than the competition.

Of course, but its all connected.

As for why I use the mean, it performs around 50% better than the op at D10 so its value is significantly more likely to verify.

Yes, the op will pick up an easterly before the mean or its members, however, the ECM non-easterly sagas are a legend in this forum, and along with the ops poor performance at the moment maybe best to not get excited about (yet)!

Where are the stats and website that shows the ensembles perform 50% better than the op? Find that hard to believe .No chart at day 10  or day 15 is likely to verify in the first place,which is why many don’t understand why you post day 10 mean charts on ecm and 15 day mean charts on gfs?

Edited by SLEETY

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Getting closer now.......................

image.thumb.png.56378bedbcc9bf700013b8301ad1da9f.png

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Now to the GEFS after a less than inspiring 6z OP run

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27 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Where are the stats and website that shows the ensembles perform 50% better than the op? Find that hard to believe .No chart at day 10  or day 15 is likely to verify in the first place,which is why many don’t understand why you post day 10 mean charts on ecm and 15 day mean charts on gfs?

Mean anomalies, especially when they are strong, are pretty useful to distinguish broad synoptic features

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