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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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3 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Happy New Year to all NW folks. This is going to be a better year all round.

The time has come for the models to start showing us the effects of the SSW/Split, quite exciting really and my pram is empty so that`s good.

This would cheer me up no end. 

ECH0-240.png

the gfs parallel was even better a frigid Northerly with big snowstorms for many with bitterly cold air interacting with the relatively mild sea.Hope it verifies 

77A280C9-A290-4BD2-93E6-5F5F721C2A84.png

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Last one from me for 6 weeks before I leave in the morning for Canada . Our experts we use in resort have told me that todays upper air soundings over the Russian Arctic are showing Easterlies now est

After a health scare I have had the best news ever and been given the all clear. What a year it has been weather wise.Just like to take the opportunity to wish Paul,all The moderating team a

Afternoon so 2 hours on the train should be plenty of time for a post- The last 2 weeks the projected SSW has gradually worked through the models & is now 'imminent' ~ 30hours away is when we

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Regarding the MJO which has been the subject of model disagreements .

We have officially left phase 5 and are into phase 6. The issue now is the amplitude of the signal .

Still no agreement . It depends which forecast you look at , the VP 200 looks good aswell as the MacRitchie scale which speeds that into phase 7. The ECM has a weaker signal , the GEFS stronger .

In terms of ENSO there’s been a drop in temps, we’re now in neutral conditions .

We won’t be battling a rampant El Niño . Taken together with the SSW and the expected progression of the MJO I’m less miserable than I was yesterday about prospects !

Edited by nick sussex
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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Happy New Year everyone .

Hope you all had a good time and are recharged to follow our search for the Holy Grail in 2019 !

Which brings me to the ECM run ! 

In light of recent years I have decided to move to an emergency code red warning . All NW helpline assistants leave  is cancelled . Extra supplies of Prozac have been ordered !

The subject of the emergency is the trigger shortwave due around day 7 . This runs around the ridge and southeast  , it develops low pressure to the south providing support for any high to the n ne .

Longstanding members who have suffered TST Trigger Shortwave Trauma know why I have placed our thread on this emergency warning !

Someone likes a bit of drama.... My pantomime starts in a weeks time. Think they might need someone for Dame.... 

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8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Regarding the MJO which has been the subject of model disagreements .

We have officially left phase 5 and are into phase 6. The issue now is the amplitude of the signal .

Still no agreement . It depends which forecast you look at , the VP 200 looks good aswell as the MacRitchie scale which speeds that into phase 7. The ECM has a weaker signal , the GEFS stronger .

In terms of ENSO there’s been a drop in temps, we’re now in neutral conditions .

We won’t be battling a rampant El Niño . Taken together with the SSW and the expected progression of the MJO I’m less miserable than I was yesterday about prospects !

Nick's on board!

image.thumb.png.4f9bd7093d107e50d309afad6c31cdb7.png

Well, nearly...?

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9 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes its the ENS filtered to ascending value in table format -

You can view it per scenario as well - its a quicker way of finding the cold runs !

B57C33E5-2C91-41CB-83CA-53576374F244.thumb.png.ac1beced869853dda7499ea7765f92bc.png

Great info......where can one find it on the Meteociel  site ?

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9 minutes ago, Jemma Croton said:

 

☺️

The weather obviously - one thing looks certain, January could be a tad more interesting than what we've just left in December 

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6z gFS at 150hrs looks very interesting imo!! maybe taking a trip towards Greenland here.close but not quite

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4 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Could be a good run this shrunken pv and shifting east. 

I always expect gfs op to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory........ best way to avoid more disappointment...... not that gfs ops post day 6/7 are in any way important to my day .............

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6 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Could be a good run this shrunken pv and shifting east. 

If we don’t get the short wave feature (as above) then we at least need to see lower heights around the med / Spain to allow the PV to drain south (as per 00z GFSp)  Neither appear to be happening on this run. Let’s hope for a better GFSp in an hour 

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Well not a bad start to the New Year waking up to this! I say wake up, it currently hurts to blink ???

FF9CC48D-AD08-4D35-A5C4-4167BF82A864.thumb.png.307b7a9c01db762ab994aae5f40e1831.png15ACE30C-9C11-4B2E-ACC9-2519C0F9BF2D.thumb.png.ca4ae6e5cf7fcf540a1b2b4315b0a552.png

it seems an unlikely outcome due to the difficulties of getting there, but good to see!

 

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1 hour ago, IDO said:

It is for NH (20N-80N).

The number is the 30-day average, higher best,  but daily verification is also plotted. ECM scores high on monthly average but looking at the most recent plots, it performs well below its mean and lower than the competition.

Of course, but its all connected.

As for why I use the mean, it performs around 50% better than the op at D10 so its value is significantly more likely to verify.

Yes, the op will pick up an easterly before the mean or its members, however, the ECM non-easterly sagas are a legend in this forum, and along with the ops poor performance at the moment maybe best to not get excited about (yet)!

Where are the stats and website that shows the ensembles perform 50% better than the op? Find that hard to believe .No chart at day 10  or day 15 is likely to verify in the first place,which is why many don’t understand why you post day 10 mean charts on ecm and 15 day mean charts on gfs?

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