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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes its the ENS filtered to ascending value in table format -

You can view it per scenario as well - its a quicker way of finding the cold runs !

B57C33E5-2C91-41CB-83CA-53576374F244.thumb.png.ac1beced869853dda7499ea7765f92bc.png

Many thanks! And very healthy and peaceful new year to you all

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HAPPY SSW NEW YEAR!

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Posted (edited)

H.N.Y.

I've opened the front door to welcome the long awaited winter in and kicked mild out the back.

 

Edited by Had Worse
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I don’t post often but happy New Year to you fabulous lot. Here’s hoping we get plenty of ❄️ in 2019.

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Return of the Bling. Finally, a chart that isn't grey. Here's hoping. HNY all.

image.jpg.3d168e8c7d2378892c741e742a09210f-2.thumb.jpg.a8567d7b3c25eb9b70195cec48e7340d.jpgSaruman_Palantir.thumb.jpg.c15b988effd7bb2f125035e67dafb0db.jpg

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Right I've just got in and seen this from the GFS for going out of 2018 with a bang 😂😂😂

gfs-1-384.png

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Some light at the end of the tunnel at last from the 18z....Nice to see, lets hope that we get more cold and snowy charts to view in 2019!

 

Happy New Year everyone!:yahoo:

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Was good to see a decent chart for the New Year. Good Auld Pub Run!

gfsnh-0-372.png?18

To 2019 and beyond! Cheers! Thanks to all for keeping me entertained and educated.

:drinks:

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All this excitement about the latest charts, but from my (albeit inexpert) point of view I se no difference.  All I see is more promise in FI but again, within the 240 hr time frame it's as you were.

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Happy new year all! 

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Posted (edited)
On 23/12/2018 at 18:07, matt111 said:

 

Not got a clue, why that's there... especially from the 23rd 😵

Anyway HAPPY NEW YEAR to you all on this XCELLENT forum :hi:

I hope we have a COLD n SNOWY ONE... 

And to all the mild rampers, trollers and those who are just disrespectful... I hope you all have a IAN BROWN WTF moment.... and you all have a COLD n SNOWY new year too :hi:

Edited by Law of averages!!
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Off topic,so apologies,but a very happy new year to the whole netweather family from my good self,may the new year bring you everything you desire,and lots of snow

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Happy New Year to the most tenaciously optimistic snow searchers ever found on this tiny island :oldsmile:  May the Snow Gods smile on us in 2019 

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1 hour ago, SJ NM said:

All this excitement about the latest charts, but from my (albeit inexpert) point of view I se no difference.  All I see is more promise in FI but again, within the 240 hr time frame it's as you were.

You're a happy chappy aren't you?

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12 minutes ago, Jemma Croton said:

Do you also stand outside Santa’s grottos handing kids notes that say Santa isn’t real??? 😂😂😘😘

Seriously though the excitement is justified because while yes these are FI charts... they are in the right frame of time and the right response to be an entirely plausible and “jackpot” response to the SSW. Rather than it being pie in the sky charts to lust over this is a situation where these are the expected charts to give the money shot and almost dead on when it comes to trop responses. 

These aren’t just yet more 240+ exciting charts

What...he isn’t real...OMG.....😱

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

Getting in from a night out celebrating NYE and my birthday to these charts showing what we've all been waiting and hoping for, for so long...... if Carlsberg did HNY parties....!!!!! Yay!!!

Happy New Year to you lovely lot who keep me company in my obsession every winter!!! Let's hope this is it!!!xx

What a date to be born on😨 Looks like turning very cold from 14th onwards

Edited by lassie23
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18 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

Getting in from a night out celebrating NYE and my birthday to these charts showing what we've all been waiting and hoping for, for so long...... if Carlsberg did HNY parties....!!!!! Yay!!!

Happy New Year to you lovely lot who keep me company in my obsession every winter!!! Let's hope this is it!!!xx

Happy Birthday! (it was mine too!).

Good to see some promise in the charts again. If nothing else at least it will lift the mood here a little compared to the past week!

 

 

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As many have said, this limpet modelled high is almost a carbon copy of the run up to the beast.

It was modelled to hang around all 384h but in reality lasted 5/6 days just enough to dry the ground out ready for the main show.

Keep the faith in 2019 and in a year of real uncertainty, keep the love and joy ❤🕛

Happy New Year Friends ❤🍾

 

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My hiccups might have the the power to cut through the vortex...I think? Merry Chritsmas and Happy hunting xxxx

 

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