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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The big news from the gefs mean is the resplitting of the tpv end week 2 ......

Is it from the same warming or because of a second one?

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gfsnh-0-240.png?18gfsnh-0-234.pnggfsnh-0-228.png?6gfsnh-0-222.png?12

Above are the last 4 GFSp Op runs. There does seem to be a trend toward a more amplified pattern and Atlantic blocking..

If that continued as a step progression (unlikely but hey) then we would have a nice Atlantic block and cold by tomorrow evenings run for the same period.  🤓

Edited by Mucka

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5 minutes ago, Tony Beets said:

Is it from the same warming or because of a second one?

Looks like it’s down to the polar ridge pushing south ...... as per the strat profile 

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Just for fun I’ll chuck this in here, probably already been discussed but seems out of kilter with what we would expect mid month. 

8E4FC6AE-8ED5-4883-8948-F0FB5B5434F3.png

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29 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

GEFS 06Z T850 ensembles for Northampton & Aberdeen, which appear to have completely lost the plot?

image.thumb.png.e17749472a76ddfcf9f7fc249dabc003.pngimage.thumb.png.6a8e41c751b55706fff2cd1aba200862.png 

Let's hope that the 12Z Operational is leading the charge?:cold:

I must be Missing something, ones Nottingham and the other is Northampton ?

Edited by Dancerwithwings

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Be nice to have one last hurrah from the ECM, champagne popper :spiteful:

Even if it’s not there tomorrow, let’s see out* 2018 in style EC :give_rose:

Edited by karlos1983

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I see this thread is still as frantic as ever :crazy:

P5 caught my eye on the 12z tempresult_hmq6.thumb.gif.cbebfb7a27c04dbc18d6251e1d498a39.gif 

a few others including some from the overnight runs of the GEFS legacy and the GEM ensembles tempresult_brs2.thumb.gif.6b88636f70b4f4c39d305cbe608cdaf6.gif 

gensnh-10-0-360.thumb.png.18d716aa66625b3247d269e3579e006c.pnggensnh-19-5-384.thumb.png.217f08b814582d9ef0b6215f25799427.pnggens-6-1-384.thumb.png.ed88257e6ad4af52e243af53865f4423.pnggens-3-1-384.thumb.png.b04972867e7acca4b8956fc5da1700be.pnggens-8-1-384.thumb.png.ed9263ed9a0c81ff4fc05f5b79663166.png   

gens-16-1-384.thumb.png.5b3c5bb26382a6c6267710849636653e.pnggens-5-0-384.thumb.png.f1a954ac5af5c0d76b14fb3fe1763633.pnggens-8-0-384.thumb.png.3c540604af50489dfb434e08393e0b38.png  

still heading in the right direction (a few more days of uncertainty and then hopefully a firming up on more blocked conditions, still sticking to my original date of the 8th Jan onward for things to start becoming more blocked and 🤞 we end up on the right side of things to get colder / snowier weather)  

graphe3_1001___-3.16202_56.10878_.thumb.gif.6e08b9bc087987ad383766e9778999f3.gifgraphe3_1000___-3.16202_56.10878_.thumb.gif.a01fb921ac9a28aa096401e9423aa569.gif  📉 

Also in case I dont get a chance to say it later - Happy New Year everyone! lets hope 2019 is a memorable cold and snowy year for us all 😀🎉🎆

Edited by Kirkcaldy Weather

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2 minutes ago, shotski said:

Just for fun I’ll chuck this in here, probably already been discussed but seems out of kilter with what we would expect mid month. 

8E4FC6AE-8ED5-4883-8948-F0FB5B5434F3.png

5 days out of date, not sure what the target date is but if its for mid jan, its actually in line with met office of a coldish zonality with a blocking signal of sorts pushing the jet south.

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If ever there was a model run that demonstrates to me that the SSW event is now beginning to show its influence on the trop modelling, its pertubation 20 on 12z GEFS. Shannon Entropy in full swing in that run. There are so many different patterns going through the motions its as if a child has used all the different colour crayons in a drawing and has drawn every random pattern imaginable!

When models are all over the place like this then something major is afoot as per previous notable weather events.

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5 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

I must be Missing something, ones Nottingham and the other is Northampton ?

No DWW, you are quite right...I've tried amending my original post, but whatever I try, it always comes-up with Dottingham! Maybe NW needs a packet of Tudes?:cold:

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

No DWW, you are quite right...I've tried amending my original post, but whatever I try, it always comes-up with Dottingham! Maybe NW needs a packet of Tudes?

It ‘Lockets’ you out then 🥴 wish the Op’s would suffer a Cold....literally 🥶 

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Hello. I follow the Stratosphere and I see that after the strong warming in the upper levels, on 6th January 2019 the wind is divided into two parts. We are currently commenting on the division. Does that mean that the vortex will be divided once more at the end of January 2019? Are the changes in the upper levels happening at a slower stage after 20 days to 60 days? I see Europe under severe cold.

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34 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Happy New Year everyone-see you in 2019

Happy New Year John. And to all on this brilliant forum. May you all be healthy and happy . May the snow lay everywhere, (except near knockers woodshed, where may the sun shine brightly and the daffs be in full bloom!) 

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3 hours ago, Jason M said:

 

Last post from me for 2018 - ECM is showing a very dry 10 days for some to open up 2019 - with the high moving around only to settle back to where it is right now in 10 days time.. that would mean an impressive 3 weeks of anticyclonic conditions under the same high.. Alas it remains a very amplified flow, and we have a distinct deep trough/ridge/deep trough set up, further sharpening will in time aid WAA through west atlantic and CAA to our east - provided the ridge backs west..

 

Edited by damianslaw

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13 minutes ago, Snow Queen one said:

Happy New year all.  Don't worry be happy. 

Further, it isn't new year yet and it's bad luck to wish it until 12am and we need all the luck we can get.

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The MO are clearly going for the 3rd week of Jan for the fun to start. 

By the 6th Jan we should be seeing the goods. 

 

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Is that a smidge of an Arctic High up there? Or am I hallucinating...?

image.thumb.png.b10087280e9aed0558f3d08cbf1a4bed.png

Or even...image.thumb.png.ce9f9b2ff01888cba709423c038e4070.png

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