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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, Don said:

    Thanks, wasn't sure when he stated 'it's over' at the end!  I guess he meant the westerlies?

    I think thats what it means anyway - maybe one of our guru's could confirm.

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    Last one from me for 6 weeks before I leave in the morning for Canada . Our experts we use in resort have told me that todays upper air soundings over the Russian Arctic are showing Easterlies now est

    After a health scare I have had the best news ever and been given the all clear. What a year it has been weather wise.Just like to take the opportunity to wish Paul,all The moderating team a

    Afternoon so 2 hours on the train should be plenty of time for a post- The last 2 weeks the projected SSW has gradually worked through the models & is now 'imminent' ~ 30hours away is when we

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    3 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

    The para loves building suspense..

    Yes, i think i am on a para now after that GFS run.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    He tweeetd earlier to say that things are on hold in the Pacific ..... probably a stagnant pattern for two weeks so we waste a fortnight of winter as we sit under the block ........

    Hmm, the weather gods are not giving us an easy ride this winter so far!

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    13 minutes ago, Don said:

    It means hee haw for our islands until mid to late January. 

    Another poor day in the search for cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

    Nah! Those "background signals" touted over last few weeks aint playing ball with our set of maritime islands, which are merely a dot in the N Hemisphere, and, of course, are heavily influenced by the gulf stream.

    Personally i think its down to one thing and one thing only, the fact that there wasn't a potent enough of a split SSW, if there was, it would be about to do the job in the next 10 days - scrap that post i made earlier, about maseillo's tweet btw. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Personally i think its down to one thing and one thing only, the fact that there wasn't a potent enough of a split SSW, if there was, it would be about to do the job in the next 10 days - scrap that post i made earlier, about maseillo's tweet btw. 

    A SSW affects the N Hemisphere (correct me if i am wrong); the British Isles are a 'blip' in that context. As a SSW is happening right now (UK Meto says) it'll prob be 2 weeks (at least) until we know if "we" are affected.

    However, we do not need a SSW to get cold and snow imo. Prolonged spell?then probably Yes. Gone are the days (it seems) when we had cold, snow showery North Westerlies in December, even affecting my locality (seemed frequent in my younger days).

    Edited by Bristle boy
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, Bristle boy said:

    A SSW affects the N Hemisphere (correct me if i am wrong); the British Isles are a 'blip' in that context. As a SSW is happening right now (UK Meto says) it'll prob be 2 weeks (at least) until we know if "we" are affected.

    However, we do not need a SSW to get cold and snow imo. Prolonged spell then probably Yes. Gone are the days (it seems) when we had cold, snow showery North Westerlies in December, even affecting my lociality (seemed frequent in my younger days).

    Thats a different point though, i maintain if the split was the same as 2013 then we would be looking at a cold spell by the 10th IMO, the process of re-phasing between the daughter vortices starts almost immediately after the split, not enough space / time for a proper block over Greenland / Iceland to develop.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    3 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

    This is looking different ?

    gfsp.png

    And crap.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    This place has more up and downs than a hot air balloon! 

    we don’t know how this SSWE is going to affect the Trop yet, never mind our tiny little Island! So there’s little point in worrying about the latter until we get an idea of the former.... I don’t think we will need to wait to much longer!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    A few GEFS survive the tedium and show some promise .

    The fact there’s a bit more variety showing as early as day 7 is some relief . 

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

    @karlos1983 SSWE?

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, matt111 said:

    @karlos1983 SSWE?

    (E) event 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    (E) event 

    Or non-event ! Tonights outputs have done nothing to improve my mood after you know what !

    The question is what’s likely to come first the trop effects from the SSWE or Arsenal’s defence not conceding a goal !

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: North Tyneside
  • Location: North Tyneside
    2 minutes ago, booferking said:

    Zero snow here from that event so I'm afraid  I'm still very sad..?

    Where are you? I'm roughly where I've placed the white dot. We got quite a bit!

    fc1430eed5d1b016bd02f4749a3cc012.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    @nick sussex horrendous, I just made the mistake of looking at Twitter! Not sure my phone will survive being thrown again, no Twitter for a couple of days.

    hopefully Jan transfer window which opens roughly the same time as the SSW, brings a QDR - Quick Defensive Response! Woeful!!    

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    That freezing spell last March could have been better .

    Because the severe cold got so far west it blew up the Atlantic. It was a  very unusual set up.

    It was almost a reverse set up to what we see in the USA, we often bemoan that deep cold spilling east into the Atlantic and firing up the jet stream , this time it was the deep cold from the east getting too far doing the same .

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
    3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    That freezing spell last March could have been better .

    Because the severe cold got so far west it blew up the Atlantic. It was a  very unusual set up.

    It was almost a reverse set up to what we see in the USA, we often bemoan that deep cold spilling east into the Atlantic and firing up the jet stream , this time it was the deep cold from the east getting too far doing the same .

     

    I know so little about this sort of thing but i remember the same happening in March 2013 but the jet stream didn't ramp up. What was the reason that caused it?

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    That freezing spell last March could have been better 

     

    Really Nick?!

    Best March ever, in my lifetime, for cold and snow (my locality).....by an absolute stretch. Friday 2nd March 2018 - 6/7 inches of snow of powder type; temps of minus 2c at 2.00pm. Then....another snowfall mid-month, plus more later on.

    Edited by Bristle boy
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
    8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    @nick sussex horrendous, I just made the mistake of looking at Twitter! Not sure my phone will survive being thrown again, no Twitter for a couple of days.

    hopefully Jan transfer window which opens roughly the same time as the SSW, brings a QDR - Quick Defensive Response! Woeful!!    

    What was on Twitter? EC46?

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    20 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

    I know so little about this sort of thing but i remember the same happening in March 2013 but the jet stream didn't ramp up. What was the reason that caused it?

    Hi CA 

    I see you’re in Calgary , great place I took the train from there through the Rockies to Vancouver  , stopping off in Banff .

    Absolutely superb , stunning scenery best train journey anywhere in the world . 

    Anyway last March the deep cold upper air got so far west it engaged some shortwave energy in the Atlantic which effectively helped deepen these .

    Without that the lows would likely have slipped further east under the block . What we saw was a more ne track .

     

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Message added by Paul

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
    • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
    • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
    • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)
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