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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


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Last one from me for 6 weeks before I leave in the morning for Canada . Our experts we use in resort have told me that todays upper air soundings over the Russian Arctic are showing Easterlies now est

After a health scare I have had the best news ever and been given the all clear. What a year it has been weather wise.Just like to take the opportunity to wish Paul,all The moderating team a

Afternoon so 2 hours on the train should be plenty of time for a post- The last 2 weeks the projected SSW has gradually worked through the models & is now 'imminent' ~ 30hours away is when we

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  • Location: Sheffield - 228m/748ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Sheffield - 228m/748ft ASL
    6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Why is the gfs always at the top line in that extended ensemble pack. 

    Because it's the only way the GFS can ever be considered "top line" past +144h ?

    Excellent progress in the output as the zonal onslaught is at the very least abating in the medium term and with it come improved prospects for cold.  Still very much a case of wait and see where the cards fall post-SSW though; would love to see the verification stats of the models historically through these events to highlight how much our old friend shannon entropy goes haywire throughout such period - experience tells us all that following anything other than trends is as enlightening as a mirror in a dark room...

    Stark differences at +240h, but enough to offer encouragement

    image.thumb.png.08e85e67e94ce2c5e4d56ea98e373044.pngimage.thumb.png.52112a9a99d040627179fafd22c8b74f.pngimage.thumb.png.96f867ed5f0796ef425f2a397e0535d3.png

    image.thumb.png.739c996bab300d42aa97911331988583.pngimage.thumb.png.8affab9044a8e0d82d26e459afc07ac7.png

    GFSP showing a blocked setup that with some adjustments could lead to retrogression up Greeny-way, ECM taking a slower route but is perhaps looking more favourable post day 10, while  our *ahem* favourite model NAVGEM throws us a stonker at +180h.

    Meanwhile, the GFS/JEM/JMA didn't get the memo at all and show an atlantic profile flatter than that bottle of beer I just found left out from Christmas...

    Let's see where this takes us, but for now, savour this...

    image.thumb.png.9af3fd78f35498b6067e57c9ed2c0202.png

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    8 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

    Where’s @IDO gone ? . Lovely run from the ECM and the para very good too . Some nice cold days and frosty nights if that comes of . ?

    D12C9207-5D89-44A5-A579-A2F7D39D4956.png

    I thought I'd pop in just to say good night and long live the ecm.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Not a good start!!could not build on the positives from last night and so the boredom continues!!everything further east and ukmo at 144 hours looks to be sinking the high back south east!!so frustrating!!

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Yep another cold spell which is not going to make it again. 3rd time now, at least the first attempt at a proprr cold spell actually gave us a bit of snow before the Atlantic pushed through. 

    Still nevermind only have to wait till mid month then the proper cold and snow is arriving, ?, going have to see some amazing fl charts soon, before that  chance of a proper spell of cold and snowy weather gets pushed back till end of Jan, then early Feb, then mid Feb.... . ?

     

     

    Edited by SLEETY
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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Yep another cold spell which is not going to make it again. 3rd time now, at least the first attempt at a proprr cold spell actually gave us a bit of snow before the Atlantic pushed through. 

    Still nevermind only have to wait till mid month then the proper cold and snow is arriving, ?, going have to see some amazing fl charts soon, before that get pushed back till end of Jan, then early Feb.... ?

     

     

    This so far has to be one of the most rubbish winters ive endured!!!its been a winter of  nothing lol!!so boring its unbelievable!!it really is on par with the winters of 2015/16 2016/17 and very similar to a 90s winter and unless things change i cant see where all the cold and snow is coming from anytime soon!!if it wasnt for this ssw to give us this hope we would be in serious trouble right now!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Very interesting potential development this morning,

    GfS Op and UKMO may be underwhelming but within GFS ensembles there are several members that want to drop a trough down from Iceland sliding down the E flank of the ridge around 120 through 144

    This has the effect of greatly sharpening up and amplifying the pattern. Let's see if any the other models go for it.

    Below are a a trio of examples but there are quite a few to suggest this a very plausible new development - just the timing and positioning is a little different but the upshot is always a more amplified pattern.

    gensnh-10-1-120.pnggensnh-10-1-144.png

    gensnh-9-1-120.pnggensnh-9-1-150.png

    gensnh-20-1-120.pnggensnh-20-1-150.png

    Not sure why there is a sudden willingness to drop troughs S/SE rather push them more E/SE but if it is a trend it is good news.

     

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    We have improving GEFS again, several very good in FI 

    A32CAEAB-6E16-4C92-9F27-26690BE6BBAB.png

    C7517AF9-B7C1-4D68-9A45-28918F9F3E76.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Gfs mean we’ll into fi. Look at ‘ signal’ imo for high pressure over the North Pole area. Running through the gefs there are many that have this all be it that they are positioned in slightly different areas as you would expect at this time frame. I didn’t save the mean from the last 4/5 days but this looks quiet different now to what it has been showing.

    1C3BFA4A-88EA-46C6-9807-2CC08F57A87E.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    T240 hard to be much different.? interesting to watch the various runs over the next couple of days but trying to make a forecast is going to be very difficult for anything past 4/5 days. 

    44C28383-AEEA-43FA-8854-377076CB6652.png

    484613F3-4D8A-4774-BE7A-E14621309904.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    I think ECM day 10 ties in quite well with Exeter’s outlook, they then talk of a cool wet breakdown before possible cold. Is this likely to come fro the HP sliding west introducing a zonal/polar flow mix before the HP then moves North as the PV weakens - who knows!! 

    B5FE025E-E6D8-44D9-806D-906EFE11B0FA.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

    I like the renewed push of cold from the weakening vortex at my location at day 10 on this run. 

    ECH1-240 (5).gif

    ECH0-240 (2).gif

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    EC again the better op this morning looking across the suites..

    HP bringing cold and frosty weather next week before it re aligns and gets pulled west..

    After that, we wait and hope for retrogression..

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury

    Well a certain member said to me several days ago that we will be seeing some OMFG ' jaw dropping charts very soon . Well there really isn't much is there ? 

    I don't see anything that's out of the ordinary , the smallest crumb of comfort is what GFS control showed in deepest FI.

    I mentioned a week or so ago that we aren't even seeing much in the way of eye candy charts , that still hasn't changed I'm afraid .

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  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    I think ECM day 10 ties in quite well with Exeter’s outlook, they then talk of a cool wet breakdown before possible cold. Is this likely to come fro the HP sliding west introducing a zonal/polar flow mix before the HP then moves North as the PV weakens - who knows!! 

    B5FE025E-E6D8-44D9-806D-906EFE11B0FA.png

    Agreed...

    The latter is for sure an aspiration..

    Certainly now is the time for looking for signs of the vortex losing strength day 10 and beyond..

    It might not happen of course..we gotta wait, and hope ?

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  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, Banbury said:

    Well a certain member said to me several days ago that we will be seeing some OMFG ' jaw dropping charts very soon . Well there really isn't much is there ? 

    I don't see anything that's out of the ordinary , the smallest crumb of comfort is what GFS control showed in deepest FI.

    I mentioned a week or so ago that we aren't even seeing much in the way of eye candy charts , that still hasn't changed I'm afraid .

    Again i agree with most of this...

    All we can do is wait and hope..

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    Posted
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
    4 minutes ago, Banbury said:

    Well a certain member said to me several days ago that we will be seeing some OMFG ' jaw dropping charts very soon . Well there really isn't much is there ? 

    I don't see anything that's out of the ordinary , the smallest crumb of comfort is what GFS control showed in deepest FI.

    I mentioned a week or so ago that we aren't even seeing much in the way of eye candy charts , that still hasn't changed I'm afraid .

    Give it a week...48hrs even. Maximum Patients required. If after another week when mid Jan gets modelled in the slightly more reliable then you can get despondent!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    ECM back to the default underlying pattern in our sector for what seems forever:

    tempresult_grp3.gif

    UK HP domination. With a Pacific mini wave downstream pushing east, not sure there is going to be retrogression west of this high, more squeezing and maybe oscillating close to the UK.

    The GFS is less Atlantic obsessed, at least means wise, not too dissimilar to the GEM at D10:

    gem-0-240.thumb.png.ccf3bfa5d02d04ea3167dc0d654921ba.pnggens-21-1-240.thumb.png.73cdd7b9fbc349abe1b5b29816842aec.png

    It is clear that some variance in how the current setup moves forward. All models have been bad for verification around the D10 mark so no clues there. By the end of the weekend the SSW finer details should be clearer and hopefully, the models will have found agreement!

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Again i agree with most of this...

    All we can do is wait and hope..

    There really isn't much , in the ENS there is some agreement out to the 3rd thereafter its all over the shop. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    1 minute ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

    Give it a week...48hrs even. Maximum Patients required. If after another week when mid Jan gets modelled in the slightly more reliable then you can get despondent!?

    Hope there are enough hospitals then ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury

    I remember watching Gav P's excellent seasonal model round up . Models were favouring HLB for DJF , the 'D' has all but vanished , currently as I type 'J' isn't showing much in the way of HLB .

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    4 minutes ago, Banbury said:

    I remember watching Gav P's excellent seasonal model round up . Models were favouring HLB for DJF , the 'D' has all but vanished , currently as I type 'J' isn't showing much in the way of HLB .

     

    Once again, goes to show how far we have come in terms of pattern forecasting....not very far at all ! Ecm in particular seems to have been dishing out HLB forecasts for what seems like an eternity now, as you correctly point our a third of the forecast has failed all ready.

    On the plus side, it should turn colder and frosty as we loose this cloudy muck, ironically as we return to work. Can't see anything on the horizon regarding snow unfortunately, even gfs north westerlies seem to have all but vanished. Hopefully ecm is more on the money.

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    Once again, goes to show how far we have come in terms of pattern forecasting....not very far at all ! Ecm in particular seems to have been dishing out HLB forecasts for what seems like an eternity now, as you correctly point our a third of the forecast has failed all ready.

    On the plus side, it should turn colder and frosty as we loose this cloudy muck, ironically as we return to work. Can't see anything on the horizon regarding snow unfortunately, even gfs north westerlies seem to have all but vanished. Hopefully ecm is more on the money.

    Yep , fair comment and as you say hopefully some chiller seasonal days with maybe some frost thrown in.

    I should add I'm not a great believer in pattern matching , there are so many variables to our weather something will always throw a spanner in the works of the forecast.

    Edited by Banbury
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    Message added by Paul

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
    • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
    • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
    • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)
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