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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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10 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Where’s @IDO gone 😂 . Lovely run from the ECM and the para very good too . Some nice cold days and frosty nights if that comes of . 👍

D12C9207-5D89-44A5-A579-A2F7D39D4956.png

I am here! Yes, nothing from the ECM yet to excite, though "potential" changes for the better for sure and settled UK HP is a good holding pattern IMO.

The Para gets to where it gets with a trigger low running west to east undercutting a parcel of heights to its north to attach to the trough in the east. No single GEFS has this development and I would like to see something as unusual as this repeating in the model let alone verifying! 

gfs-0-216.thumb.png.be459799e70365496a609e52497e9aeb.png

The SSW has happened, so changes will come sooner rather than later. Interesting model watching ahead...

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14 minutes ago, LRD said:

I wouldn't be surprised if MeteoGroup pay the Met Office for access to GloSea5, though

Why do you think so. The Dutch part of the MeteoGroup don't have acces tot Glosea5.

For the long term (months) they make use of WCS.

Edited by sebastiaan1973

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1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Why do you think so. The Dutch part of the MeteoGroup don't have acces tot Glosea5.

I said I wouldn't be surprised. Not necessarily that I thought so. Surely it's possible for anyone to pay the Met Office for access to Glosea5? Or is it strictly not for sale? I would doubt the MO would turn income down

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4 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Why do you think so. The Dutch part of the MeteoGroup don't have acces tot Glosea5.

Not specifically to you but a number are having a conversation about a fella on twatterr(as I call it) who cares and if you do tweet him.👍👍😄

Edited by That ECM
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I think Meteogroup ain't interested. In the Netherlands they didn't even think about Glosea5 in their seasonal forecast till I mentioned it. Rather strange in my opinion.

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We keep debating Chris Fawkes ..... it would be better if he would come on somewhere like this and contribute but we know that , just like fergie, he would be tempted to share something he shouldn’t and that would be the end ......anyway, mr Fawkes would surely only be tweeting  gefs strat data if eps agreed with it ....he can’t tweet eps charts 

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ECM is getting there.

 

High to our north east on the FV3

 

Good to see less energy being modelled in the Atlantic and a more resilient ridge.

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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We keep debating Chris Fawkes ..... it would be better if he would come on somewhere like this and contribute but we know that , just like fergie, he would be tempted to share something he shouldn’t and that would be the end ......anyway, mr Fawkes would surely only be tweeting  gefs strat data if eps agreed with it ....he can’t tweet eps charts 

Micheal Ventrice does.

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So the Atlantic has been delayed yet again by the ECM and the GFS has shown further westward correction so that it looks like we go colder from the east next week.

Still some way to go before the pattern reverts to what we are looking for wrt Polar blocking but modelling is showing more amplification and the block doesn't look like giving way easily if at all.

ECM T168

ECH1-168.thumb.gif.78d087afb8d217ebaa2f37961b98102b.gif

The gap between the 2 pv lobes starting to open up.What may well evolve now is the retention of quite cold surface conditions under the ridge after the initial incursion from the east.

If the trend continues to increasing ridging then the Atlantic jet will be forced to go south.Not a bad pattern to be in for a launch pad to proper Winter.


 

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Hi posters ,yes ecm ,could turn in to a better run ,I mean on future runs .But looking at the 240 hr chart just look at those eyes and the mouth pretty scarey ,great reading your posts ,cheers. 😁.

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Micheal Ventrice does.

Ventrice must have an agreement with ec whereby he can tweet a certain number of restricted charts each week .....

 Chris Fawkes doesn’t ! 

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Well it's been a very positive day so far for those hunting for cold I would suggest.  A couple of points occur to me,  First I don't think anyone is suggesting the FV3 run will verify as is, it was the first op run to suggest the direction of travel that some of us expect, twists and turns will come, but it has some support from ECM, ICON etc.  

The second point I'd like to make is that now this signal should appear across the suite in the next 48 hours or so.  I mentioned 2013 in a previous post, here the charts before that cold snowy week:

image.thumb.jpg.b0865d30cf2e21b39ea4ee2f2625db42.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.382c74468ce04d2e09b47965efe781af.jpg

If I recall correctly, this sprung up at fairly short notice after SSW 6/1/13?  Not massive Greenland or Scandi block, just a wedge of high pressure.  Actually the FV3 run today looked a stronger high to me, reinforces the view I expressed on this thread some days ago that this looks a similar but more significant event than Jan 2013.  Let's watch it unfold...🍿

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ventrice must have an agreement with ec whereby he can tweet a certain number of restricted charts each week .....

 Chris Fawkes doesn’t ! 

Good answer!

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43 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Doesn't he work for BBC?  They don't see GloSea5 any more...they get their data from MeteoGroup.  Probably GFS ECM blend?

I think BBC can still access Met Office data though, I know it sounds strange but on our S4C (the Welsh language channel), their weather forecast says "in association with the Met Office" even though it's a part of the BBC  

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Good answer!

Yes but will it snow in Sheffield!!! sorry it's my BBC snowatch days kicking in 🤣🤣🤣🤣

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The trends have been great today. Yesterday's ecm day 10 mean compared to today's day 9. Very nice upgrade. 

EDH1-240.gif

EDH1-216.gif

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Interesting spreads on the eps ........ the heights into scandi are likely to be stronger than the mean shows and there is a cluster that has a wedge to the north with an associated nor’easter into the ne of the uk  ....... it looks messy .........clearly many ways around the circle but only one will be correct.!

Edited by bluearmy
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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Interesting spreads on the eps ........ the heights into scandi are likely to be stronger than the mean shows and there is a cluster that has a wedge to the north with an associated nor’easter into the ne of the uk  ....... it looks messy .........clearly many ways around the circle but only one will be correct.!

Wedge to the north sounds interesting. Maybe like gfs para run. Would be nice to see some convergence between ecm and the para. 

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This morning's ecm control was an undercut. Tonight's gfs para was an undercut. Mmmm! 🙂

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The EC mean is indeed an improvement on this mornings!

BTW, the EC det is literally freezing from 120 onwards with a few -5s dotted around day 8/9..

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Any chance of consistancy from the mods re met office musings in this thread? I got pulled up on one reference this morning where as there are dozens this evening?

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5 minutes ago, Rambo said:

Sorry, but you are COMPLETELY missing the whole point. It has not been "constantly pushed back". The effects of a SSW were possible around New Year onwards, now more likely mid (ish) Jan, thats NOT constantly being pushed back lol. If people want to cry and moan that the weather isnt 100% forecastable weeks in advance, then thats fine, but they shouldnt make things up whilst doing so!!

And anyway, that Meto update (although not relevant to this thread) clearly says first half of Jan, which still isnt completely wrong yet. 

There is however one thing that IS constantly being pushed back, and thats the onslaught of the Atlantic!!

Can’t understand why people keep claiming that the cold was previously forecast for before and then around Christmas when the strat warming was always forecast to occur just after Christmas. Doubt we we’re going to see the effects of strat warming before it had occurred....

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The EC mean is indeed an improvement on this mornings!

BTW, the EC det is literally freezing from 120 onwards with a few -5s dotted around day 8/9..

Is that quite widely or just across england!!how are the day time temps looking for central england🤔!!hopefully some sub zero days!!

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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Can’t understand why people keep claiming that the cold was previously forecast for before and then around Christmas when the strat warming was always forecast to occur just after Christmas. Doubt we we’re going to see the effects of strat warming before it had occurred....

To be fair around mid-month the 30 day outlook repeated said it could turn significantly colder before the end of the year

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