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Paul

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Smell the coffee? The people in the east can almost smell the thin crisp air.😄

519A0CA4-5BBB-47AB-BF63-748B912C0781.png

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V amplified signal T120 ECM:

image.thumb.jpg.031fec342ccab6614761c6ca8f8c9f5e.jpg

Will we see this follow the FV3?  Hoping!

 

Edited by Mike Poole

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ECM is trying very hard to give us an easterly....

 

image.thumb.png.41dfe0e0466c285efd00216aefc1e2c4.pngimage.thumb.png.d9d04609624ec44203d7e1dbe3971d98.png

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Look east on the ECM  +144. Russian high trying to get involved. Trying hard to set up an Easterly.

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2 minutes ago, Purga said:

ECM is trying very hard to give us an easterly....

 

image.thumb.png.41dfe0e0466c285efd00216aefc1e2c4.pngimage.thumb.png.d9d04609624ec44203d7e1dbe3971d98.png

Some cold frosty weather on EC this evening.. 🙂

 

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Some cold frosty weather on EC this evening.. 🙂

 

Yes, potential for some hard frosts. Temperatures in mid to low single figures all day too I'd imagine.

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Some cold frosty weather on EC this evening.. 🙂

 

very like 2002, (rip LW252 though) started with -10 minimums, ice days

archives-2002-1-2-0-0.png

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ECM 12z very different to yesterdays effort. I think today's is probably more in line with what can be expected.

Yesterday/today

ECH1-192.GIFECH1-168.GIF?28-0

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2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

+168, so nearly there...

A676919E-0E0F-4E80-861A-79811314CA9C.thumb.png.7a4c1f604c73552d013ef5f50930d9a5.png

As Blue said earlier this afternoon, we may have lift off!  Proper cold to the east of us now as well.  I suspect this run may not get there but the ECM is certainly trending the right way.

image.thumb.png.5497f551660ffa8c48558a8b20a4f7b6.png

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Out to 192 and it looks to be lining up?

image.thumb.png.6627ea92bf6613876539bcd22ab4eb02.png  image.thumb.png.cf7a4af7a9c8c8eb181721b603898057.png

Getting tantalisingly close now!!!

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Hmmmm, where is that Azores High headed on the ECM 12z at 192?

ECMOPNH12_192_1.thumb.png.d7343186de49941b95d37ff4b85d04c8.png

Encouraging!

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Messy but interesting sums up the ECM so far. Shortwave energy flying all over the place .

Another one over the North Sea at day 8.

Overall miles better than the GFS.

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3 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

192!!!!!!

Capture.thumb.PNG.b2a413fc8a8ed5d58a5dad5c2c6bc45c.PNG

good chart, potential ice days there, miles better than the absolute crap GFS 06Z was going for, Atlantic in on 4th

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Just now, Steve Murr said:

Where did all them zonal runs go...

997871FB-B4E9-4537-A6C9-4A1382B492FA.thumb.jpeg.70a5ffbdcf1d90c6fbb9fd1ce1ea88d2.jpeg

Atlantic what Atlantic ! Very encouraging from the ECM so far .

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ECH1-192.GIF?28-0

It is going to need a little help this run, no quick route to cold (upper air) but a slow burner.

It sets us up nicely in the run up to the New Year.

Edited by Mucka

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Here was me worrying Chris Fawkes had access to GLOSEA when in actual fact he was basing his no downwelling fearmongering on the GEFS 😂. It is the very worst of the most common stratosphere models.

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