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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well for me ICON looks fine- plenty of potential @180

image.thumb.png.a6c444b155c4fbdeac4d3b5ec153af3d.png

It looks awesome for Greece and Turkey. 

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted

Steve M. 

You agree? 

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, karyo said:

It looks awesome for Greece and Turkey. 

Haha yes it looks excellent for pretty much anywhere east of Germany K..

Obv its not as nice as 6Z.. but i think there is scope for upgrades down the line with that run..

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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Haha yes it looks excellent for pretty much anywhere east of Germany K..

Obv its not as nice as 6Z.. but i think there is scope for upgrades down the line with that run..

Yes, at least it is not flat.

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lassie23 Maestro

lassie23

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted

I thought all the models were starting to smell the coffee this morning, it now just looks like they are starting to smell.

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted
3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I thought all the models were starting to smell the coffee this morning, it now just looks like they are starting to smell.

People jumping on that ridge too soon. 

No effects seen in the trop until 10th Jan imho. 

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stewfox Accomplished

stewfox

Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Popular Post
Posted
2 hours ago, snowrye said:

Reading all these posts is utterly confusing,1 posts 1 thing,1 posts something completely opposite,and on top of that,the hunt for cold thread,has turned into the ssw thread,seems all hope is being pinned on this,although it doesn't guarantee cold,

Beginners guide

Patience is the key : Models not showing what we want

Models all over the place : Models not showing what we want

GFS,ECM etc doesn't handle that very well : Models not showing what we want

SSW could happen which could lead to this then this : Straw Clutching

T380 charge shows a northerly toppler : Extreme straw clutching

T48 GFS shows Easterly : GFS is the best model ever always handles these situations

T24 GFS has a failed easterly : GFS is the worse model every never handles these situations

SM posts 'it will snow' : 233 likes

2 page summary why it wont snow ; 3 likes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

People jumping on that ridge too soon. 

No effects seen in the trop until 10th Jan imho. 

Not according to Chris Fawkes!!

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Selliso Enthusiast

Selliso

Posted
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny summers, cold & snowy winters
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
Posted

Interesting article on recent SSWs. Fascinating model watching over the next few days, as we enter what will no doubt be a nail-biter of "will it or won't it" on the PV split, the down-welling potential and the subsequent trop response. 

So many moving parts that have to fall into place to bring cold to the UK.

Will it or won't it!?!? 

https://simonleewx.com/2018/12/27/not-all-ssws-were-created-equal/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

 

 

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Not according to Chris Fawkes!!

He’s hardly covered himself in glory recently.... 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

Ukmo t144 not too  much energy from the nw

Edited by That ECM
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Banbury Experienced

Banbury

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

He’s hardly covered himself in glory recently.... 

I wouldn't know mate , if he is making his comments after viewing  one model, foolish i'd say 

Edited by Banbury
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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted
6 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Isn't he going off GFS though?

Don't they take the Glosea model into consideration though? 

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Ukmo t144 not too  much energy from the nw

Could you post it please mate ? 

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted
18 minutes ago, Reversal said:

Is there any actual evidence that models are slow to take the effects of a SSW into account until it's under way. Similarly, it has been suggested here that the models are yet to factor in the impacts of the MJO.

It doesn't seem logical to say the GFS is not taking the amplitude of the MJO phase into account. And then make an independent forecast based of a GFS MJO plot... Similarly with strat impacts.

It's seems likely that the GFS/ECM/UKMO take many more drivers, signals and data into account than any human ever could when coming up with a forecast. Perhaps it's us enthusiast's are the ones failing to take drivers into account. And within there lies the mismatch between our expectations and NWP output, not the other way around.

There is a danger of assuming that the upcoming major SSW and forecast split will couple with the tropospheric circulation, unfortunately not all do, a recent study by Karphechko et al. (2017) suggested that 43% of SSWs do not strongly couple to the trop circulation. We've been lucky that in recent years that some of the major SSWs (Jan 2009, Feb 2010, Jan 2013 and Feb 2018) have downward propagated and given us the goods. Credit to Simon Lee: https://simonleewx.com/2018/12/27/not-all-ssws-were-created-equal/

However, there is a great deal of uncertainty how this SSW will affect the trop if at all, so a waiting game to see, given that it can take 10-14 days for the troposphere to respond from the date of the SSW. The ECWMF ops recently to varying degrees have been hinting at perhaps a response from the trop by building a ridge north over the N Atlantic while deep cold pushes south over NE / E Europe. GFS ops not really been keen at all, rather showing deepening and expanding trop PV to the north and strong westerlies, though jet stream tracking further and further south with potential for NW'ly or N'ly incursions.

We could also see the trop pattern respond to poleward wave propagation of the MJO wave if it goess through 7-8-1 at a decent amplitude too, so if the SSW doesn't have an impact on changing the pattern the MJO could do it.

Frustrating I know, when the models are not hinting with any confidence and continuity a pattern change to bring deep cold and wintry weather atm. So more sitting on the fence from me.

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Could you post it please mate ? 

 

1C264002-DD01-4F5F-9E01-BA2539BD7740.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
14 minutes ago, Banbury said:

UK 120 looking half decent

Or 'half crap'?

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
8 minutes ago, That ECM said:

 

1C264002-DD01-4F5F-9E01-BA2539BD7740.png

Not sure what's great about that chart? Deep trop PV over the pole and NE Canada and the deep cold into Eastern Europe.

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted
41 minutes ago, karyo said:

It looks awesome for Greece and Turkey. 

Of course, that did you expect? All part of the plan.

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Banbury Experienced

Banbury

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Not sure what's great about that chart? Deep trop PV over the pole and NE Canada and the deep cold into Eastern Europe.

Depends how you look at it, Id rather have the HP sat over us than a " reset " . Can take an age to block the Atlantic again

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