Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Recommended Posts

Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted
1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Does anyone know when day 1 of the event is?

SSW Wind Reversal (10mb/60N) around 31/12 to 01/01 according to GEFS.

Split in the next 10 days, perhaps starting as early as day 7/8 (4th Jan onwards)

10_nh_stanom_29.thumb.png.4fc97e83e859627433d89310b62badf0.png

 

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

I just wonder if this is the first signs of the QTR reversal around the 4th Jan a few GEFS feeling for something.1,2,7,12,15,19 etc

Coupled with the ECM allowing Bitter cold to infuse through Eastern Europe

Screenshot_20181228-100028_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20181228-100312_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20181228-100621_Chrome.jpg

I believe you need to be looking at the NH for conclusive signs of a trop response ....... the euro picture could simply be amplifications due to other factors inc the general slowing of zonal flow over the past week 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ext eps anyone?

Feeling a bit lonely with my optimistic hat on this morning

cheer up pal,its only weather !!!!!!tbh until we get a break to the north west with this low heighths mighnt be a long haul job

Edited by swfc
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yes!

Spv already displaced and will be split at 10 hpa by jan 4th ....SSW due 31st/1st  .....the question is how long will downwelling take and whether it will affect the trop 

EC46 has be showing a downwelling ..

Shirley?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC46 has be showing a downwelling ..

Shirley?

Possibly taking a little long though Tracey.

 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC46 has be showing a downwelling ..

Shirley?

BA - Shirley !!!! love it,the truth will out

Edited by swfc
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

If you look to the east of greeland theres a small build of pressure at the 160 hr mark on gfs 6z.may mean nothing  but its there?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
snowfish1 Aficionado

snowfish1

Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
Posted
12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ext eps anyone?

Feeling a bit lonely with my optimistic hat on this morning

You have no reason to be. The effects of the ssw are only going to be felt during and after first week Jan 2019

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

Quite a large difference between the  ECM and GFS at day 7, just look how flat the GFS is. If the GFS gets this closer to the evolution people need to start respecting it a bit more

08822D42-14A4-4F9A-8DE2-B119E6A4DA04.png

05C0EDD9-BF77-4032-9EFB-480C81C38A13.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted
1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

Aye certainly is! Although so far this winter it’s been a bit like trying to hook a Barracuda in the English Channel  

Well, the Blue-fin Tuna are arriving so hope springs eternal. Hunch, nothing more nothing less really, the second week of January so D10 through D14 is where we should be looking for repeating trends, I reckon.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

GFS 06z not only saying no to ECM but even more progressive with the Atlantic on this run. At such early stages, one of these models is going to look bad!

gfs-12-162.thumb.png.f90164b7c0b2236c7dfb9b4ba06b59c2.png1484009210_gfs-12-168(1).thumb.png.55734526699c7f1ed2130674c59113bf.png

Latest on left compared to 0z on right...

...into D8: gfs-0-186.thumb.png.1f5a49c556710e0c583a21d3ab85f0ee.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted
1 hour ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

I am not so sure the High will hang on like a limpet.

The ensembles are telling a very different story. Trend is the friend. High pressure eroded away allowing the cold in.  The 850s suggest a gradual decrease in temps as the process continues. 

prmslWestern~Isles.png

 

t850Aberdeenshire.png

It is a waiting game. A significant SSW has taken place, zonal winds expect to reverse. I would imagine it will be a Nly first then Easterly or NE

 

 

Agreed

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
Posted

Be interesting to see what gives here.

021E99B5-1986-4D62-AAAD-89705F90BA56.thumb.gif.ea56a4f77e5ee2cc8a9fcab23ba20960.gifEDE52A95-5722-4052-A59A-478E070E3EB3.thumb.gif.64c4f006b1e0b97deedb48d97af3f894.gif

Eastwards movement was curtailed by Rossby wave interference over the Maritime area, assuming that is now out of the way, we should know very soon. It is still an extraordinary difference between the two models though (Japanese model is somewhere in between)

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jemma Croton Aficionado

Jemma Croton

Posted
  • Location: Swindon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Always Snow.
  • Location: Swindon
Posted
27 minutes ago, Nick F said:

SSW Wind Reversal (10mb/60N) around 31/12 to 01/01 according to GEFS.

Split in the next 10 days, perhaps starting as early as day 7/8 (4th Jan onwards)

10_nh_stanom_29.thumb.png.4fc97e83e859627433d89310b62badf0.png

 

 

28 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yes!

Spv already displaced and will be split at 10 hpa by jan 4th ....SSW due 31st/1st  .....the question is how long will downwelling take and whether it will affect the trop 

Well colour me happy with that news. 

As much as I bloody LOVE following the charts this time of year it’s so hard to catch up after a few weeks off. 

Thanks for the responses folks

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I believe you need to be looking at the NH for conclusive signs of a trop response ....... the euro picture could simply be amplifications due to other factors inc the general slowing of zonal flow over the past week 

Thanks Blue.

I heard that the QTR/Warming was already being felt over Eastern Asia with a 1055Mb High.

image.thumb.png.38e706ecc16ace1d2b7e326b634476ef.png

There is just something that tells me that the charts below could well upgrade at short notice

image.thumb.png.5b58f39235189ead44232eed87080fc8.png

image.thumb.png.8a8bad7ee07e9b71f2e7a6b3208aa33a.png

Here are a couple of GEFS for that time 

image.thumb.png.2df666585612c8b275f37420c5468863.png

image.thumb.png.3addac760bbeddad5a1e72c6d856a57c.png

All very interesting WRT the SSW and what we are dealt with.

 

Edited by winterof79
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
Posted
9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Quite a large difference between the  ECM and GFS at day 7, just look how flat the GFS is. If the GFS gets this closer to the evolution people need to start respecting it a bit more

08822D42-14A4-4F9A-8DE2-B119E6A4DA04.png

05C0EDD9-BF77-4032-9EFB-480C81C38A13.png

You are right, one model will have to back down soon. The reality is whichever model it is will get a slating, egg on face etc but within a week we will forget all about it, as we lurch forward to the next model standoff, no doubt just round the next corner.

And that’s exactly why we all love it here really, and keep coming back for more!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC46 has be showing a downwelling ..

Shirley?

I’m only Shirley on a Sunday afternoon .........

impossible to see downwellings on a 51 member mean several weeks out ...... the expected long range model pattern evident (as it has been for a few runs now) .......  if there is a two week standard on offer then hopefully it will show by next Thursday evenings output.  Exeter should have firmed up on that by then In any case 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted
4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Thanks Blue.

I heard that the QTR/Warming was already being felt over Eastern Asia with a 1055Mb High.

image.thumb.png.38e706ecc16ace1d2b7e326b634476ef.png

There is just something that tells me that the charts below could well upgrade at short notice

image.thumb.png.5b58f39235189ead44232eed87080fc8.png

image.thumb.png.8a8bad7ee07e9b71f2e7a6b3208aa33a.png

Here are a couple of GEFS for that time 

image.thumb.png.2df666585612c8b275f37420c5468863.png

image.thumb.png.3addac760bbeddad5a1e72c6d856a57c.png

All very interesting WRT the SSW and what we are dealt with.

 

Someone please a QTR as there is no explanation link under this term? MOD team can this be updated for folks like me who are only dipping in and out these days. I'm guessing it's something to do with stratospheric processes.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Paul_1978 Accomplished

Paul_1978

Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
Posted
21 minutes ago, IDO said:

GFS 06z not only saying no to ECM but even more progressive with the Atlantic on this run. At such early stages, one of these models is going to look bad!

gfs-12-162.thumb.png.f90164b7c0b2236c7dfb9b4ba06b59c2.png1484009210_gfs-12-168(1).thumb.png.55734526699c7f1ed2130674c59113bf.png

Latest on left compared to 0z on right...

...into D8: gfs-0-186.thumb.png.1f5a49c556710e0c583a21d3ab85f0ee.png

Are you hunting for cold IDO?

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
6 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Members of this forum when viewing the 46th consecutive run of pure dross from the GFS

 

tenor.gif

Painful isnt it John ..

Not even  as much as  a baby step towards ECM..

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Northern Sky Aficionado

Northern Sky

Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
Posted
1 minute ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Someone please a QTR as there is no explanation link under this term? MOD team can this be updated for folks like me who are only dipping in and out these days. I'm guessing it's something to do with stratospheric processes.

QTR = Quick Tropospheric Response 

It's just how quickly the Strat warming downwells to the Trop.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
Posted
1 minute ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Someone please a QTR as there is no explanation link under this term? MOD team can this be updated for folks like me who are only dipping in and out these days. I'm guessing it's something to do with stratospheric processes.

Quick Tropospheric Response.

in other words, how quickly the weather in the troposphere gets influenced by the SSW event as it propagates downwards from the stratosphere.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Beverley Lass Experienced

Beverley Lass

Posted
  • Location: Near Beverley, East Yorks. (5 metres a.s.l.)
  • Weather Preferences: Something good in all four seasons
  • Location: Near Beverley, East Yorks. (5 metres a.s.l.)
Posted
3 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Someone please a QTR as there is no explanation link under this term? MOD team can this be updated for folks like me who are only dipping in and out these days. I'm guessing it's something to do with stratospheric processes.

Is it Quick Tropospheric Response ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)

So at 144Z we have ECM

image.thumb.png.d4c17fc6d434ecc098a06b3dc610c9ea.png

UKMO

image.thumb.png.5d996e0988ff0b4c511fbcbb1f245e97.png

AND GFS which for the life of it can not resist raging Jet syndrome

image.thumb.png.b6c5035533a328861e1d6f254f1d6d53.png

image.thumb.png.37be86a925c7f3739b6979a8472a02fc.png

Here is ICON at 120z

image.thumb.png.9ebae805b75fda7aac9e55930d709759.png

The North Eastern Conus has a lot to answer for...

Edited by winterof79
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...