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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Merry Christmas everybody, the only thing splitting this morning is my head....self conflicted of course  

Don’t you mean self inflicted 

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
2 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Thanks for all the likes everyone. Finally, arrived at Gatwick after a bit of a delay. Safely back in good old Sussex for a couple of days. You know, despite your mundane weather over in blighty , you still live in a great country, possible the best in the world. Your pubs are fantastic social hubs , now offering amazing choice of real ales. Your food in second to none. Roast beef and Yorkshire pudding served with gravy as thick as the soles of your shoes, proper bacon, thick crust white bread ( beats that Alpine bread , full of all sorts of nuts any day) Fish and chips with mushy peas , thick cut Oxford Marmalade jam and the list goes on and on. Oh , your Tv is amazing. To all on here enjoy the holiday and forget about those grim charts showing this morning, they will switch to joyous viewing in a matter of days ! Will send some updates from Canada.

Cheers,

C

“Switch to joyous viewing in a matter of days” eh

We’ll hold you to that 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Just now, Newberryone said:

“Switch to joyous viewing in a matter of days” eh

We’ll hold you to that 

The models are currently vile...but, after a few drinks perhaps they won't look so bad!..happy crimbo:drunk-emoji::reindeer-emoji::santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
6 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

“Switch to joyous viewing in a matter of days” eh

We’ll hold you to that 

OK, but you will have to hunt me down in deepest BC if all fails !

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The models are currently vile...but, after a few drinks perhaps they won't look so bad!..happy crimbo:drunk-emoji::reindeer-emoji::santa-emoji:

Wouldn't say vile, although depends what's under the high, if we're lucky it'll be dry, sunny, even luckier frosty, but could be drizzle yuk

GFS 00Z very unusual run for time of year, completely dominated by high pressure, some lucky areas not a drop of rain from 0-384, chart at 252 from GFS, hard to say what it would be like

gfs-0-252.png

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
51 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

 

At least the EC46 looks chilly..

That's a bit of a tease...anyone put some meat on the bones ? 

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

The models are all wrong this morning due to lack of Christmas Day North Atlantic flight data. Not to worry, Santa is on the case on his hunt for cold. Merry Christmas from the flight deck and their companion hitching a lift !

C

48403876_1954921874544410_3420174675047612416_n.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

No Christmas snow, no decent model runs for cold, no turkey no sprouts no decent presents, no relatives over for dinner and I think this winter will be mild. Humbug to the holidays?️

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Merry christmas Ktom and all the rest of the gang..

Knocker has posted it

Merry Christmas NwS

Found it...still fairly positive for the last third of the month, although reading between the lines maybe not as strong annomolies as previously?

Edited by KTtom
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Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.

Merry Christmas to all fellow model watchers, especially the regular posters. Although we seem to be in a holding pattern at the moment, i feel confident that the snow and ice we all crave will show itself by mid jan.

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Merry Christmas my fellow snow hunters. Remember granny's old adage.

As the days get longer the cold gets stronger!

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
49 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Thanks for all the likes everyone. Finally, arrived at Gatwick after a bit of a delay. Safely back in good old Sussex for a couple of days. You know, despite your mundane weather over in blighty , you still live in a great country, possible the best in the world. Your pubs are fantastic social hubs , now offering amazing choice of real ales. Your food in second to none. Roast beef and Yorkshire pudding served with gravy as thick as the soles of your shoes, proper bacon, thick crust white bread ( beats that Alpine bread , full of all sorts of nuts any day) Fish and chips with mushy peas , thick cut Oxford Marmalade jam and the list goes on and on. Oh , your Tv is amazing. Free health service is envoy of the world ! and great schools. To all on here enjoy the holiday and forget about those grim charts showing this morning, they will switch to joyous viewing in a matter of days ! Will send some updates from Canada.

Cheers,

C

Oh and I forgot, Yorkshire tea and buttered crumpets. Take these back in abundance to Austria when I am back over in blighty. Also the TV over there is crap, have to rely on BBC I -player and Sky for all my favourite sports. however, sad to report your weather presentations on ITV and SKY are poor. Your BBC presentation is ok and happy to inform everyone, " at least it will be mild ". No Ian Mac and humour from this lot of clones.

C

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Merry Xmas everyone!:ball-santa-emoji::drunk-emoji:

The GEFS ensemble has been out on the razzle: image.thumb.png.840dd2c0fed274c35351f2d771f45b26.png

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

shocking absolutely shocking runs there getting worse and worse.

im skeptical ive gone from 80/30 cold to 80/30 mild.

maybe a knee jerk reaction but they are dribbling out run after run of absolute rubbish.

we need another warming even that vortex has nine lives i swear.

 

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Happy Christmas you horrible lot... the Snaw family have had a great start to the day, the dustbin lids are happy with the pool table and fifa 19. while i got a nice bottle of single malt and yes its been opened already..have a great day everybody. love peace and happy times one and all.

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19 minutes ago, Blake Allen said:

Well... if you're spending Christmas in eastern Latvia, as I am, you'd have this outside your window.

Currently -5.5c here in Berzpils.

2 Christmasses in a row plus Easter both giving me a few inches to play with - currently a foot of snow in places. Although, not good for balls, or snowmen, as the snow is very dry.

Here until 1st Jan... expecting 2 more periods of snow at least before then.

I do feel that before the weekend we will have something to cheer about with charts showing us some promise for parts of the UK. So long as there is no disruption between 17th and 21st Jan as coming back here for a 50th birthday.

Although as we know SSW's do not guarantee snow or cold, I remain hopeful of it.

Few models showing cold filtering south across eastern Europe towards Greece/Turkey from 2nd/3rd/4th... but little promise that heights can build to the north as of yet.

Enjoy your Christmas day one and all. Off to peel and score my sprouts as I am giving my hosts a traditional British Christmas dinner! 

20181223_123502.jpg

20181223_123519.jpg

20181223_142131.jpg

A few inches to play with??? ohhh you naughty you...

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

MERRY CHRISTMAS. 

I've lost a £10 bet on a white Christmas 

I placed the bet after looking at the 12z on the 14th of December .

Rotten models 

Thats the last time i take any notice of the T384hr :drunk-emoji:

Edited by sorepaw1
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
9 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

shocking absolutely shocking runs there getting worse and worse.

im skeptical ive gone from 80/30 cold to 80/30 mild.

maybe a knee jerk reaction but they are dribbling out run after run of absolute rubbish.

we need another warming even that vortex has nine lives i swear.

 

Indeed Mr E...If things carry on as they are, we'll be consoling ourselves by stating and restating the fact that 1947's winter didn't start until late January...?:drunk-emoji::santa-emoji:??

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay

Merry Christmas to everyone on here. Hopefully within the next days or so something will start to appear in the output.  Hope springs eternal. 

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