Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[northwestsnow]

GFS para seems to be displacement as opposed to split..

Looks a decent displacement though with the Core PV somewhere over NW Russia by the end -

[nick sussex]

Good grief !

Some woeful outputs this morning , upstream is flat as a pancake and the limpet high to the south just goes on and on and on .......

The ECM ensembles show little spread near the UK, what spread we do see is further east over Scandi suggesting some ensembles survived the bloodbath and managed to bring something colder there !

In terms of Christmas prospects at this time of year its crucial where the high sets up, even if your 850s are above average you can stay on the cool side if the flow is drawn more east of south .

Still disagreements as where the high will set up ,  overall though it looks like a very underwhelming spell for coldies .

We just have to hope that we can see a quick response to the SSW because the models currently look merciless in terms of anything remotely wintry !

 

 

[shaky]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good grief !

Some woeful outputs this morning , upstream is flat as a pancake and the limpet high to the south just goes on and on and on .......

The ECM ensembles show little spread near the UK, what spread we do see is further east over Scandi suggesting some ensembles survived the bloodbath and managed to bring something colder there !

In terms of Christmas prospects at this time of year its crucial where the high sets up, even if your 850s are above average you can stay on the cool side if the flow is drawn more east of south .

Still disagreements as where the high will set up ,  overall though it looks like a very underwhelming spell for coldies .

We just have to hope that we can see a quick response to the SSW because the models currently look merciless in terms of anything remotely wintry !

 

 

Its just horrendous!!!theres nothing else to say really!!last few evening we have had slightly better output but then for some reason come morning our hopes get dashed again!!the 00zs seem less amplified a lot recently!!right now i would take a bloody night of frost thats how bad things look at the moment!!

[Frosty.]

With the models looking dire for coldies..my hope is there will be a sudden switch in the new year, the Gfs 00z looks vile but as they say, things get worse before they get better, the night is always darkest before the dawn etc..etc!!

Edited December 20, 2018 by Frosty.

[northwestsnow]

TBH  i think coldies need to hold their nerve at the moment..

I fully understand the frustration but team Joe is right, its January that holds most interest..

Will be interesting to see Mikes zonal winds chart, hopefully the signal for the drop/reversal is still there..

 

 

[Ivaylo Goranov]

Hello. My name is Ivo and I am from Bulgaria.
I follow the Stratosphere from August 23, 2018, when the first appearance of the polar vortex was after the disintegration in February 2018.

Since then, the 30 hpa Polar Wind has separated more than once. At the moment, we see the splitting of the whirlpool at 10 hpa. Is this division possible to be the first one seen at 30 bahes, and if so, does it mean that the wind will divide 2 more times?
I know that the changes are up to 60 days.
Everything coincides.

The first time was split on November 19, 2018, and now we see the changes on December 20, 2018. Does it mean that there will be a new division in February or March 2019?
Today, 20 December 2018, at 30 hpa, the polar vortex is again divided.

 

Edited December 20, 2018 by Ivaylo Goranov

[mulzy]

Ext EPS broadly similar as previous runs but if anything the core of the higher than normal heights heading a little bit further west right out in the further reaches (day 14-15).  Lower than normal heights beginning to appear in eastern Scandinavia too.

Far too early to tell conclusively but is this the first indication of the Greenland heights / Scandinavia trough pattern touted by some experts?

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Ivaylo Goranov said:

Hello. My name is Ivo and I am from Bulgaria.
I follow the Stratosphere from August 23, 2018, when the first appearance of the polar vortex was after the disintegration in February 2018.

Since then, the 30-ounce Polar Wind has separated more than once. At the moment, we see the splitting of the whirlpool at 10hp. Is this division possible to be the first one seen at 30 bahes, and if so, does it mean that the wind will divide 2 more times?
I know that the changes are up to 60 days.
Everything coincides.

The first time was split on November 19, 2018, and now we see the changes on December 20, 2018. Does it mean that there will be a new division in February or March 2019?
Today, 20 December 2018, at 30 h, the polar vortex is again divided.

 

Welcome ivaylo

im sure you will get replies to your post from more knowledgable posters in this field..

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Ext EPS broadly similar as previous runs but if anything the core of the higher than normal heights heading a little bit further west right out in the further reaches (day 14-15).  Lower than normal heights beginning to appear in eastern Scandinavia too.

Far too early to tell conclusively but is this the first indication of the Greenland heights / Scandinavia trough pattern touted by some experts?

Cheers Mulzy . At least something a little more positive this morning. Let’s hope we can build on it

[Purga]

Well it appears that the initial Trop response is:

 

You've got to have a sense of humour though it's Christmas! .

 

[A.J]

blimey it's remarkable how short some memories have become in this thread from peeps I'd expect to have better memories.....It's absolutely pointless beating oneself over the head with the current model outputs....Remember last winter?.....cruddy chart after cruddy chart and then 'hang on, SSW effects are showing up in the model outputs, here's comes the cold and snowy weather!"......Until the outputs start to factor in the effects of any future warming event then you might as well print off any model output T144+, colour it in elf & father christmas designs and use it as festive bog roll, it'll have more use as that!

[Paul]

We've opened up a winter chat thread over in the winter area. Please head over there for more general winter weather chat, moans and banter, this thread has been running a bit too far off topic in recent days, so if we can make sure it stays mainly model related that would help it. 

 

[shaky]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Good grief !

Some woeful outputs this morning , upstream is flat as a pancake and the limpet high to the south just goes on and on and on .......

The ECM ensembles show little spread near the UK, what spread we do see is further east over Scandi suggesting some ensembles survived the bloodbath and managed to bring something colder there !

In terms of Christmas prospects at this time of year its crucial where the high sets up, even if your 850s are above average you can stay on the cool side if the flow is drawn more east of south .

Still disagreements as where the high will set up ,  overall though it looks like a very underwhelming spell for coldies .

We just have to hope that we can see a quick response to the SSW because the models currently look merciless in terms of anything remotely wintry !

 

 

Its just horrendous!!!theres nothing else to say really!!last few evening we have had slightly better output but then for some reason come morning our hopes get dashed again!!the 00zs seem less amplified a lot recently!!right now i would take a bloody night of frost thats how bad things look at the moment!!

[BlueHedgehog074]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Its just horrendous!!!theres nothing else to say really!!last few evening we have had slightly better output but then for some reason come morning our hopes get dashed again!!the 00zs seem less amplified a lot recently!!right now i would take a bloody night of frost thats how bad things look at the moment!!

Have to say, the models do look a little bit shaky currently. 

(Looks like it will just be one of those cases of being patient and praying to the snow gods that something more inviting will start turn up soon). 

[nick sussex]

For what it’s worth our go to straw clutch model the infamous ICON shows more amplitude and the high extending further north  at T120hrs !

Time to book the mariachi band for the celebrations ! Anyway it’s a case of damage limitation at the moment . Trying to get the high at least in a position to deliver some frost .

[shaky]

Icon 06z high further north and west!!

[Methuselah]

GEFS ensembles for Northamptonshire:

   Overall pressure-rise less pronounced than on earlier runs.

  850s peak at around +8C, around New Year.

What we all need now is patience. And lots of it!

Edited December 20, 2018 by Ed Stone

[swfc]

13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

For what it’s worth our go to straw clutch model the infamous ICON shows more amplitude and the high extending further north  at T120hrs !

Time to book the mariachi band for the celebrations ! Anyway it’s a case of damage limitation at the moment . Trying to get the high at least in a position to deliver some frost .

Yes nick we all need a icon in our lives!! Looks like a block set to sit over the uk imo for 7- 10 days then who knows? uncertainty as ever during winter a bain for the cold hunters

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

With the models looking dire for coldies..my hope is there will be a sudden switch in the new year, the Gfs 00z looks vile but as they say, things get worse before they get better, the night is always darkest before the dawn etc..etc!!

Sums it all up at present Frosty......

[nick sussex]

A slight westwards correction so far on the GFS 06 hrs run at T84hrs.

 

[Minnizi]

57 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

blimey it's remarkable how short some memories have become in this thread from peeps I'd expect to have better memories.....It's absolutely pointless beating oneself over the head with the current model outputs....Remember last winter?.....cruddy chart after cruddy chart and then 'hang on, SSW effects are showing up in the model outputs, here's comes the cold and snowy weather!"......Until the outputs start to factor in the effects of any future warming event then you might as well print off any model output T144+, colour it in elf & father christmas designs and use it as festive bog roll, it'll have more use as that!

Your right. I remember. Peeps seem to be panicking alot this winter. Maybe its because we've not had many cold days this winter yet and that the models are showing alot of mild weather , not in nw anyway . Im no expert far from it i just cruze the posts to get a better insight of whats happening with the weather

[Easton Luna Boys]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Good grief !

Some woeful outputs this morning , upstream is flat as a pancake and the limpet high to the south just goes on and on and on .......

The ECM ensembles show little spread near the UK, what spread we do see is further east over Scandi suggesting some ensembles survived the bloodbath and managed to bring something colder there !

In terms of Christmas prospects at this time of year its crucial where the high sets up, even if your 850s are above average you can stay on the cool side if the flow is drawn more east of south .

Still disagreements as where the high will set up ,  overall though it looks like a very underwhelming spell for coldies .

We just have to hope that we can see a quick response to the SSW because the models currently look merciless in terms of anything remotely wintry !

 

 

Exactly. This is a reality check; despite constant predictions of blocking high scenarios bringing cold and snow by some since late November, nothing has materialised. In fact we are now looking at one of the mildest Decembers on record. It just goes to show that despite years of model watching, no one can really predict the weather with any accuracy more than 5 days out. 

The trouble is, some are so hell bent on finding cold and snow that it blinds them to reality. Two years ago the term SSW had not been heard of by the majority on weather forums. Now, it seems to be the thing that coldies hang every thread of hope on. I stand by my view that not nearly enough is known about this area by the professionals. Yes, it has received considerable funding, but so did UFO research and where did that get us? It certainly did not bring us any closer to finding alien visitors to these shores. 

We now have a massive marauding HP cell lurking within t120 that, if it sinks into southern Europe, you can pretty much forget about worrying about the effects of any SSW and write off a considerable chunk of model watching for the foreseeable. I know it's not what many want to hear, but we HAVE to be honest about the possibility of a Bartlett/Euro High setting up for a term. The Meto outlook doesn't bode well for cold weather either. 

Have a good Thursday all

[winterof79]

Wow there are many on here who seem to know how the Trop will respond to an event that hasn't happened.

Let's look at it this way....if you were to try and forecast Christmas day weather to an exact today you'd probably be wrong.So how can we forecast the Trop response ?

How many saw the severe weather following February's SSW?

 Here's the Profile we had mid Feb

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

I have a few thoughts which I glean from the knowledgeable and it's best not to get caught up in the inter-run hype...trust me

 

Edited December 20, 2018 by winterof79

[winterof79]

. # Eastern lunar boys

"We now have a massive marauding HP cell lurking within t120 that, if it sinks into southern Europe, you can pretty much forget about worrying about the effects of any SSW and write off a considerable chunk of model watching for the foreseeable."

 

This requires some evidence to back it up as I don't know anyone who knows how an SSW reacts to a high pressure cell in situ.??

 

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Purga said:

Well it appears that the initial Trop response is:

 

You've got to have a sense of humour though it's Christmas! .

 

Well it isn’t really as it’s not reasonable to expect to see a QTR on a model run that doesn’t actually show a reversal (gfs) and the downwelling wave takes around two weeks so would be out of range anyway .....