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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

FV3 strat at T384, seems to be moving the vortex over to our side, still evidence on this temperature plot of some kind of tendency for a split.  Outcome like this keeps the vortex or remnants of it away from where we don't want it so happy with this run.

 

image.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

People looking for cold scenarios need to remember it probably won’t show until week 1-2 in January. Not surprised to see nothing at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Got to see some energy going south and that high to our SW sucked into the north Atlantic..

The cluster this op is from was 17% and became the least blocked cluster of the three in the extended ......

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Bit hit and miss ECM this evening.one step forward to steps back imo.looks dry going into the Xmas period of nothing else which is ok for me 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, bluearmy said:

The cluster this op is from was 17% and became the least blocked cluster of the three in the extended ......

lemon - we dont wan't it to verify then, would give very cold if it went to 264 but possibly temporary as you say.

ECH0-240_eqw8.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

ECM inconsistent. Back to run to run swings and roundabouts again. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

But the far reaches of the GFS FV3 still 'suggest' the potential for an attack from the North and the UK-centred HP to move away westwards...I know it's a stretch, but the last two frames do suggest it...Honest!

Netweather GFS ImageNTS

And, as we all know, NTS means not to be taken seriously!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

If there are background drivers in our favour then we need them to start showing their hand , 240 EC has potential iMO-(Probably cold in NE Scotland by this point).

 

ECE0-240.GIF?17-0

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The cluster this op is from was 17% and became the least blocked cluster of the three in the extended ......

Makes sense, really does seem out on its own. 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

N'ly coming if it went further than 240 though - you'll see signs by then.

Can’t show charts atm, but more or less in the same timeframe, the gfsp  member no 19 lands that N’ly you mentioned.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Can’t show charts atm, but more or less in the same timeframe, the gfsp  member no 19 lands that N’ly you mentioned.

Only another 19 members to go then by T0 for it to verify!!!

EDIT : and another 51 of course.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
19 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

I can`t fathom out a cold scenario from here...

 

ECH1-216.png

ECH0-216.png

That's cos there ain't one....

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

The high is more amplified again. The trend is our friend...

Most of the lobe of vortex is also over our side of the pole and the residual pieces of the vortex are over the Canadian side but fragmented.

Looks good

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
24 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

If it wasn’t for the promising background signals and strat forecasts, it would be dead on here. The model output is God awfully boring.

Open Qs to all:

How long does one trust "background signals"?

And, If they dont produce the wanted 'goods' this Winter does that mean they are or were, all along, false signals that are not v reliable for our piddly little part of the Northern hemisphere?

Edited by Bristle boy
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

The 240 shows you one about to happen!!

ok

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
16 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

ECM inconsistent. Back to run to run swings and roundabouts again. 

They are always consistent when nothing is going to happen of any interest...

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Open Qs to all:

How long does one trust "background signals"?

And, If they dont produce the wanted 'goods' this Winter does that mean they are or were, all along, false signals that are not v reliable for our piddly little part of the Northern hemisphere?

Mid January for me, BB. After that, we'll be waiting on another SSW...with any luck!

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
21 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

lemon - we dont wan't it to verify then, would give very cold if it went to 264 but possibly temporary as you say.

ECH0-240_eqw8.GIF

Why it looks like it's going to flood cold out all over the northern hemisphere looks like to lobes two which possibly would suggest the split 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, MR EXTREMES said:

Why it looks like it's going to flood cold out all over the northern hemisphere looks like to lobes two which possibly would suggest the split 

because BA said it became the least blocked in the extended.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Mid January for me, BB. After that, we'll be waiting on another SSW...with any luck!

Yup, the late Feb to April mob will no doubt be happy.

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