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Mapantz

South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards

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6 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

It's so volatile that truth be told, I haven't really looked at much apart from precip-charts. I know they're a bit of a waste of time, but it has just been a quick way to get a bit of an idea.

I actually think that high ground areas in our region might get a little surprise. I have noted many times when you have reported snow and didn't think you would be in with a shout. It shows how elevation is a significant player.

viewimage.thumb.png.0b51bb011aeac97b5abef92cb088106c.png

That's the final frame of the NetWx hi res model - the 12Z. 

18Z will be available shortly.

And just like that..

824602863_viewimage(1).thumb.png.a9271f1faa0a3dbc432bf295db09b3a5.png 518380044_viewimage(2).thumb.png.dbf086f7712fcfafede83335cbe6808e.png

Shows a very narrow front and seems to move a bit quick.. hmm

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EURO4 00z


  19012918_2800.gif19012921_2800.gif19013000_2800.gif

00z WRF-NMM 2km (+36)

nmm_uk1-42-36-0.png?28-06

ICON

iconeu_uk1-42-39-0.png?28-04iconeu_uk1-42-40-0.png?28-04iconeu_uk1-42-42-0.png?28-04

ARPEGE

arpegeuk-42-38-0.png?28-05

 

Edited by Zephyr

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10 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

EURO4 00z


  19012918_2800.gif19012921_2800.gif19013000_2800.gif

Knife edge stuff for us in Yate Zephyr. Still time for change,  for better or worse!

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1 minute ago, John88B said:

Knife edge stuff for us in Yate Zephyr. Still time for change,  for better or worse!

Indeed will be a nowcast for sure, my eyes will be on the radar tomorrow 😉 I'm hoping more of the southwest comes in to play as the runs come out today

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8 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

Indeed will be a nowcast for sure, my eyes will be on the radar tomorrow 😉 I'm hoping more of the southwest comes in to play as the runs come out today

Yep would only take small changes for a larger parts of the south west to get some of the white stuff. Fingers crossed. 

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Good morning. Starting off at 0.4°C this morning, down to 0.2°C overnight 

Edited by CheesepuffScott

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just seen this from the bbc heavy snow showers for 3 hours tuesday night bournemouth area please verify thanks here is link https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/0/2655095

Edited by mattyj

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7 minutes ago, mattyj said:

just seen this from the bbc heavy snow showers for 3 hours tuesday night bournemouth area please verify thanks here is link https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/0/2655095

It gives me light snow from 8pm to 4am with 2 hours of heavy snow in between. Could only hope but the Beeb forecasts are useless from my experience 

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Then again, Met gives me this with sleet beforehand

1F624733-DCF4-4312-8DD5-E22307D8823F.png

Edited by CheesepuffScott

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poor 'ol Norwich only gets a couple hours of sleet. I can't take much notice of that... they are showing heavy snow for Okehampton on Tuesday evening. I'm not trusting that

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6 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

It gives me light snow from 8pm to 4am with 2 hours of heavy snow in between. Could only hope but the Beeb forecasts are useless from my experience 

Ok thanks for your reply

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Still looks a bit wet rather than white for most of region Tuesday. East of region maybe in with chance but I'd be concerned with marginality even with elevation here. Very close call.  Could do with another upgrade later today on 12z but could go other way of course. 

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34 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Still looks a bit wet rather than white for most of region Tuesday. East of region maybe in with chance but I'd be concerned with marginality even with elevation here. Very close call.  Could do with another upgrade later today on 12z but could go other way of course. 

It seems more likely to turn to snow after dark so I wouldn’t worry about a wet afternoon preceding it. Unless the precipitation is too light for snow to settle once the change happens.

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Not holding out much hope as it stands at the moment. Pretty much no model shows any snow falling let alone lying for me now 😭 As ever I’ll be hopeful for a surprise but doesn’t look promising at the mo...

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Looks pretty wet in the Bristol area Tues into Wednesday.

Simple really...its just not cold enough.

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Was 3.9c at midnight, with a low of 1.6c at 7am.
Winds since 10pm last night dropped and have been NW 5-9mph.

Now, 1.8c, 1004.9 hPa, NW 6mph

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22 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

For what it’s worth.F49D1A35-EBA0-4BB1-9C9E-6C84EBD9779B.thumb.jpeg.5bc4ba31db103e8a6b6a76b0290864a3.jpegE22504A7-832D-4AF1-8841-EA5EFEB1CBAA.thumb.jpeg.fca438a14a1de186c1d4b0618a7f9582.jpeg

When have the BBC ever got it right! What model do they go on as it’s not the metoffice and they have me down for rain!

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6 minutes ago, TomW said:

When have the BBC ever got it right! What model do they go on as it’s not the metoffice and they have me down for rain!

BBC use another supplier for the data.

As you say, Bristol will just be wet, Tuesdays event and Thursday. I have no idea what the fuss is about. Its just NOT cold. 4-5 degrees...its mental on this forum.

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I don't get how a village a couple miles from me is forecast 3 hours of heavy snow but I'm forecast only 1?

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The grid's gotta have a boundary somewhere.

I love Lloyds32's confidence. If I didn't know better I would suggest he is hedge betting on the result, and hoping to be wrong. BBC forecast this morning VERY interesting for both tomorrow and Thursday (speaking as Bath/Warminster location).

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18 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

BBC use another supplier for the data.

As you say, Bristol will just be wet, Tuesdays event and Thursday. I have no idea what the fuss is about. Its just NOT cold. 4-5 degrees...its mental on this forum.

And dew points play a factor as well ideally we would want that to stay below 0 but it’s going to be around 1-2C so sleet at best going by that!

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26 minutes ago, TomW said:

When have the BBC ever got it right! What model do they go on as it’s not the metoffice and they have me down for rain!

So true Tom, there apps are useless too as are Metoffice.  Metoffice app shows no rain or snow for Frome only dry. 

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2 minutes ago, offerman said:

So true Tom, there apps are useless too as are Metoffice.  Metoffice app shows no rain or snow for Frome only dry. 

2E637493-7BD7-4185-B5B8-691272D0D1CA.thumb.png.a38e91d415f24fa40f2a9fd80841208d.png

Sleet at best and it’s to mild going by that!

Edited by TomW

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