Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Mapantz

South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Zephyr said:

Jay will be happy with that! 🙂 I'll probs wait up for the 18z EURO4 tonight and then end up sleeping I haven't had much sleep past week or so waiting up for the 00z's most nights 😂 then up again for the 06z's. Tomorrow is finally crunch time.

Same here. Always checking the MetO site too! I am giving myself a nervous breakdown, but it's all so exciting! I really hope it won't be a damp squib! 😟

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, AWD said:

That was the 12z EURO4 model, which conincedentally, Ian highlighted in his Points West forecast earlier.

Still, we are all in a good position tomorrow, and we have every chance of seeing a covering of snow.

Why the gap forming in Bristol Somerset..? 😗

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Has there been a HIRLAM update does anybody know? Wasn't that the best performing model last March?

It's on Gavsweathervids and it looks very good for our areas around Bristol and Bath!

 

Skip to about 12 minutes and 15 seconds for HIRLAM

I couldn't sleep last night and found myself waking up at 4am checking the weather for tomorrow😂 and had countless dreams of it showing rain! I hope it's not any worse tonight...

Edited by Leon1
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Leon1 said:

It's on Gavsweathervids and it looks very good for our areas around Bristol and Bath!

 

Skip to about 12 minutes and 15 seconds for HIRLAM


Nice one, cheers mate.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hirlam accumulation charts (12z) out to 48 hrs - can't see 18z is out yet?

19020112_3012.gif

Edit: I'd go with that lol

Edited by kumquat
  • Like 5
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Why the gap forming in Bristol Somerset..? 😗

Bristol snow shield being put through its paces ready for tomorrow!😂

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:


Nice one, cheers mate.

Sounds not working for me. What's he saying?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

Sounds not working for me. What's he saying?

I only skipped to the HIRLAM animation.. looked good.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Nights King said:

Why the gap forming in Bristol Somerset..? 😗

As the front hits the SW and heads inland, it starts to weaken and split.  One portion of PPN heads into South Wales and stalls, the other heads along the South Coast through Dorset and Hampshire.  Areas inbetween still see snowfall, just more light in nature.

Worth noting, not all models show this scenario, the 12z Hirlam didn't, producing a rather palatable snowfall for Somerset and the Bristol area.

Just shows the volatility of the situation still.  I've just got this nagging feeling the EURO4 might be on the right track here, just my personal opinion of course.

Still, plenty of interest at least.  Some of us are going to wake up to a good snowfall on Friday morning, just not sure which county yet.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, AWD said:

As the front hits the SW and heads inland, it starts to weaken and split.  One portion of PPN heads into South Wales and stalls, the other heads along the South Coast through Dorset and Hampshire.  Areas inbetween still see snowfall, just more light in nature.

Worth noting, not all models show this scenario, the 12z Hirlam didn't, producing a rather palatable snowfall for Somerset and the Bristol area.

Just shows the volatility of the situation still.  I've just got this nagging feeling the EURO4 might be on the right track here, just my personal opinion of course.

Still, plenty of interest at least.  Some of us are going to wake up to a good snowfall on Friday morning, just not sure which county yet.

How much do you think for North Cardiff area about 100m absl?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

How much do you think for North Cardiff area about 100m absl?

7cm - 12cm

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, AWD said:

7cm - 12cm

Thanks, glad I don't live near the coast probably have nothing lol.

I think Bristol will do well too.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

How much do you think for North Cardiff area about 100m absl?

sad-snowman-sykesville.jpg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z Hirlam;

snowdepth_20190130_18_042.thumb.jpg.e02b80e5e68e232a0965b6460b8892a8.jpg

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great night for some astronomy, the sky is crystal clear, no haziness. Perfect viewing conditions..

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, AWD said:

18z Hirlam;

snowdepth_20190130_18_042.thumb.jpg.e02b80e5e68e232a0965b6460b8892a8.jpg

Realistic but disappointing!

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, noggin said:

Same here. Always checking the MetO site too! I am giving myself a nervous breakdown, but it's all so exciting! I really hope it won't be a damp squib! 😟

I do enjoy the chase of it all its pretty exciting and gives me a buzz lol, like you say hope its not a damp squib, I need my 2019 snow fix.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, kumquat said:

Realistic but disappointing!

Compared to last run it is.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest surface analysis shows it deeper than the ICON for 21z at the moment. Developing hurricane force also 

A_e_sfc_color.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

I'm sure I'll have more than 2cm

I know right, with all this heavy snow forecast, you'd expect more than those charts are showing.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, I can't see the point in looking at accumulation charts at this stage. It's going to snow and how much we all get will be apparent after the event! Enjoy everyone, these are the rare times we all crave! 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So one is a snow day with sledge at ready the other is a wintry shower... 😶

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...