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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
    1 minute ago, fromey said:

    Noooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!

    Ever the skeptic I'm afraid. Shall be going to bed early tonight. Shattered from the last few days and need to be rested in time for whatever happens.. 

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    Nice little walk with the hound.

    Beautiful looking up towards Peek Tor on Dartmoor this morning ❄❄❄

    Guys good luck today -As they say one mans loss is another mans gain - well for once in the UK the south & SW are going to gobble up the Norths snow ? Someone in North Devon / Somerset / Wilt

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    At this stage the Apps will give an indication of where the front will be in our area locally (and thats pretty much our entire region) the intricacies of ppn type and intensity will be a now cast scenario.

    We always moan, question and interrogate our app symbols to the death whenever a potential snow event is looming (I’m the same). 

    But at this close range all we need to do is watch the Radar for approach and longevity and then watch the window for how good (or bad) things are playing out IOBY ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Frampton Cotterell
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & cold (love it) any extremes.
  • Location: Frampton Cotterell
    22 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

    Not sure I haven't checked the mobile app hopefully the mobile app is in front! ?

    LMAO never mind I forgot I cleared my cache and history and reset the router earlier and it reset the met office site back to default (London)  Yate is still looking good lol

    Screenshot_11.thumb.png.acc0a73f485c7fd7b16c94d47c81f242.png

    Crackerjack still on the floor receiving mouth to mouth. Come on Zephyr I’m stressed enough with this event dont do that to me again ?❄️❄️❄️

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
    3 minutes ago, Nights King said:

    Ever the skeptic I'm afraid. Shall be going to bed early tonight. Shattered from the last few days and need to be rested in time for whatever happens.. 

    Best way to be, although I have rearranged my Tesco delivery to between10-11 just in case!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
    8 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    At this stage the Apps will give an indication of where the front will be in our area locally (and thats pretty much our entire region) the intricacies of ppn type and intensity will be a now cast scenario.

    We always moan, question and interrogate our app symbols to the death whenever a potential snow event is looming (I’m the same). 

    But at this close range all we need to do is watch the Radar for approach and longevity and then watch the window for how good (or bad) things are playing out IOBY ? 

    This is a sane post. Frankly, i wish those app symbols disappeared. People fixate on oh no my snow symbol has turned sleet

    It's just some computer auto churning them out. Let's just enjoy it, no matter what happens

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    Posted
  • Location: Bath
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath
    37 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

    Looks pretty pants here too be honest no snow until 8PM and then only light snow, was showing heavy snow earlier deffo a downgrade but any snow is better than none. Hopefully get an 18z upgrade.

    Screenshot_10.thumb.png.6a698bccf411e3d2a3ec21ce1e01f3e2.png

    You scared me then, glad that's only for London. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bath
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bath
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath

    -1 here cooling the ground for tomorrow nicely.

    Icon:   image.thumb.png.0af43d9a18e566fa73a92c3bb7924e3e.png

    ECMimage.thumb.png.c5019176f9b469f52edd096e8c32b94e.png

    Left out the GFS because it's a complete outlier. 

    Edited by Leon1
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    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
    6 minutes ago, fromey said:

    Just remember, when it starts get away from the computers and get out and enjoy people 

    Someone somewhere on my street is going to think I'm a lunatic being out in the snow at night. Do I care?

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters/Hot summers
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport

    Just saw this on another regional thread and nearly spat out my tea in laughter! Thought you may appreciate seeing it ?

    EA11D2C2-63EE-4378-B627-352A53766260.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
    45 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

    Not sure I haven't checked the mobile app hopefully the mobile app is in front! ?

    LMAO never mind I forgot I cleared my cache and history and reset the router earlier and it reset the met office site back to default (London)  Yate is still looking good lol

    Screenshot_11.thumb.png.acc0a73f485c7fd7b16c94d47c81f242.png

    Don't do that......I nearly had a nervous breakdown! ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Bath
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath
    2 minutes ago, noggin said:

    Don't do that......I nearly had a nervous breakdown! ??

    Same aha!

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    55 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    Really interesting to see the Met Office graphics displaying snow even over the Channel which is more optimistic than the publicly visible models - Euro4 closest.

    Considering the frontal position looks no further south, I figure evaporative cooling must be the defining factor. Models have shortfalls there, some more than others. I remember how much GFS has been laughed at over that in the past - but that was last relevant here way back in 2013; successful events since then have been entirely surface cold driven.

    So tomorrows a different mechanism for widespread snowfall to what we’ve become usd to dealing with, at least locally to me. Makes it harder to construct personal anticipation as to what tomorrow will bring, but seeing the snow line out over the sea in this graphics has made me the most optimistic I’ve been since the event came into view. I’m about 20 miles inland.

    Yes James I watched the in depth met office video about tomorrow and was also pleasantly surprised to the my corner of Dorset at the epicenter of things with snow forming over the channel and repeatedly moving up over me.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

    Latest MO forecast... we have one light rain symbol now before the snow... but we also have light snow between 3-9am now!

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    Posted
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL

    Latest ICON 18z snow accumulation update...

    Icon eu.png

    Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

    18z Icon puts my area in the 1-5cm zone similar to Fergie's earlier forecast. Would be hoping for a bit more, to be honest

    AWD did warn earlier, also about a possible split front. (Was that the Icon 12Z? can't remember).

    It's all a nowcast anyway but at least we're in the centre of the game.

    This is accumulative snow totals out to 40hrs

    iconeu_uk1-45-40-0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
    4 minutes ago, kumquat said:

    18z Icon puts my area in the 1-5cm zone similar to Fergie's earlier forecast. Would be hoping for a bit more, to be honest

    AWD did warn earlier, also about a possible split front. (Was that the Icon 12Z? can't remember).

    It's all a nowcast anyway but at least we're in the centre of the game.

    This is accumulative snow totals out to 40hrs

    iconeu_uk1-45-40-0.png

    Jay will be happy with that! ? I'll probs wait up for the 18z EURO4 tonight and then end up sleeping I haven't had much sleep past week or so waiting up for the 00z's most nights ? then up again for the 06z's. Tomorrow is finally crunch time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    4 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

     

    That’s a great post/twitter extract from Ian.

    Just highlights how, in a complex winter synoptic regime Det/Op runs are not to be take to literally.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

    Latest ICON gives over 5 hours of ppn of which 2 are of wintery stuff in my location obviously. More interest for central southerners the 18z run suggested the front would reactivate on Friday giving more snow. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    7 minutes ago, kumquat said:

    18z Icon puts my area in the 1-5cm zone similar to Fergie's earlier forecast. Would be hoping for a bit more, to be honest

    AWD did warn earlier, also about a possible split front. (Was that the Icon 12Z? can't remember).

    It's all a nowcast anyway but at least we're in the centre of the game.

    This is accumulative snow totals out to 40hrs

    iconeu_uk1-45-40-0.png

    That was the 12z EURO4 model, which conincedentally, Ian highlighted in his Points West forecast earlier.

    Still, we are all in a good position tomorrow, and we have every chance of seeing a covering of snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Exeter - 96m ASL
  • Location: Exeter - 96m ASL

    Looks good for most of you ? seem to be right on the edge of every predicted snow map in Exeter - is this because it’s slightly too close to the coast or is there a chance we will also see some of the white stuff settle?

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