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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards

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10 minutes ago, Fred Sykes said:

BBC lunch Time forecast also shows potential snow on Friday too! 

Lol this is just like waiting for a bus, wait around for ages then 2 show up at once & after waiting all winter for a snow event they seem to be lining up. 

Edited by Smartie

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Clearly getting better and better for most of us in this region (at the sad loss for the midlands, north etc).

Remains to be seen how much will accumulate, and I suspect there will be big variations, not impossible to have a 10 cm whilst 3 miles away only 1-2 cm. Seen it before.

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Had a light dusting this morning, settled on rooftops and cars which was a pleasant surprise :). And dare I hope that we could get something more significant tomorrow? Really thought it would be a central and northern event! Hopefully it doesn't correct too far south!

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06Z ECM brings the system further south again according to posts in the Cold Hunt thread

and

indexT6IXO2KK.png.970c4462b0ca919a050bce

Edited by kumquat

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10 minutes ago, warmintim said:

Clearly getting better and better for most of us in this region (at the sad loss for the midlands, north etc).

 

Yes, such a sad sad loss........ 

 

 

 

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

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4 minutes ago, dec10snow said:

Yes, such a sad sad loss........ 

 

 

 

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Don't worry about us in the Midlands, sure we will get further opportunities, I would rather give the snow to SW England compared to SE England! 👍

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3 minutes ago, dec10snow said:

Yes, such a sad sad loss........ 

 

 

 

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

They get no sympathy from me, they usually get the snow so instead of us feeling 🤢 it'll be them 😄 lol

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Don’t forget some of us are in Gloucestershire! We might get nothing at this rate... 

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2 hours ago, SNOW CRYSTAL said:

Beautiful looking up towards Peek Tor on Dartmoor this morning ❄❄❄

20190130_102333.jpg

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Well done snow crystal I was up there driving about taking it all in. Some good amounts the top end of burrator too.

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34 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Mines improved a bit. More sleet icons and  lower temps than it was showing before. If it improves much further I might see a snow icon. 😬

807E2BEB-6451-44D5-BC73-218DEF12C71E.png

Steady now!!!!

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7 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

Don’t forget some of us are in Gloucestershire! We might get nothing at this rate... 

MetO still has you well within the firing line. Probably in the prime position actually. Looking at their graphics the Northern extent still reaches Birmingham.

Interested to see their evening update to see if they fall in line with the ECM.

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Think I’ll stick with guidance from MetO over WNIXSDWFGH or whatever it’s called 🤣

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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Think I’ll stick with guidance from MetO over WNIXSDWFGH or whatever it’s called 🤣

Unless it’s showing snow... then I’m all over it 🤪

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I've been wondering about the lingering occlusion through Friday and whether it would remain active or not. You'd think there'd be at least a bit of frontal-type activity. Until recently few models showed more than isolated snowfall from it, but there's been a strong trend in the past 24 hours of runs toward more activity.

No agreement on how far south the boundary is or what orientation it has, though, with ICON for example going for it running west-east along a line about as far north as Bristol, ARPEGE north of there and orientated WSW-ENE, yet ECM going for a position and alignment that spans almost all of our region, or at least the southern half, while UKMO focuses activity across the east of our region.

This is mainly due to the uncertainty regarding how much a disturbance on the eastern flank of the trough develops. This being the same feature that's caused the slowdown and stall of the initial front to adjust so far south. With not one, but two key circulations involved, I expect that by the same we see any real consensus on the matter, most of us will already be too busy tracking tomorrow's snowfall!

Not that it brings any guarantee anyway. A big example of this occurred 2nd March last year - the day after the main blizzard struck. Models were keen at just 24 hours range on a further round of persistent snow affecting my locality for much of Friday, yet in reality it headed quite quickly all the way up to the Chiltern Hills and there was only about half an hour to be had here! Not that I was all that bothered at the time as I battled through more than a foot of level snow with drifts 2-3 times that. Ah, the memories! I'll treasure those for a long time, no doubt.

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image.thumb.png.d0e448361a35ba1aeae6b75ed854a946.png

Some good snow totals from ICON... fingers crossed...

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Icon 12z 1st out the blocks and all still on course :yahoo:

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Looking great now. I think it is definitely happening now! 

Who was making the Bingo charts last March as we need to do that again 🤣

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2 hours ago, Dorsetbred said:

Meanwhile WXSIM is playing safe for down here...

image.thumb.png.1a90047054f3b644ed330aceea158770.png

Is that near woodfalls as I thought that was Hampshire in the NF? 

Is hale near there or am I getting my wires crossed. 

NF is amazing place not only for snow. But it does seem colder there and often would get more snow than soton. Even Romsey could get more then drove down m271 to rain. 

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11 minutes ago, offerman said:

Is that near woodfalls as I thought that was Hampshire in the NF? 

Is hale near there or am I getting my wires crossed. 

NF is amazing place not only for snow. But it does seem colder there and often would get more snow than soton. Even Romsey could get more then drove down m271 to rain. 

Don't know if you were meant to quote me but Woodfalls and Hale are within walking distance from me 🙂

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GFS 12z says yes, slightly further North but looks ok to me.

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24 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Looking great now. I think it is definitely happening now! 

Who was making the Bingo charts last March as we need to do that again 🤣

'twas me......and probably

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12 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

50p sized flakes incoming

giphy (4).gif

Yes unlike last March when we had dry powder snow this time the flakes will be much bigger so should be good!

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