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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards

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51 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

 

Sweet. Never one to turn down the offer of a fair spatial steer.

Out and about at 8ish this morning. Here's a view from the east of the showers that must have been over Blandford way.

IMG_20190130_081410638.thumb.jpg.5c989552f70bd5b20036693a8a4092d7.jpg

No snow here, but it was still nice out.

IMG_20190130_083108314.thumb.jpg.82d53a239b7e84d28e442a4e5378c9af.jpg

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Snow still on for tomorrow looking at current model output and if the GFS 6z is to be believed we have a BEAST by the end of next weekend 9th/10th Feb.

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Yep, the GFS (P) 6z looks even better for us here on the IOW for Thursday evening.

Bring it on!!

And as Blizzardof82 says there are good signals for that easterly developing on the operational.

8 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

Snow still on for tomorrow looking at current model output and if the GFS 6z is to be believed we have a BEAST by the end of next weekend 9th/10th Feb.

 

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6 minutes ago, wightwootton said:

Yep, the GFS (P) 6z looks even better for us here on the IOW for Thursday evening.

Bring it on!!

If it’s good for you over there I might have a chance by the coast here. 

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19 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

Snow still on for tomorrow looking at current model output and if the GFS 6z is to be believed we have a BEAST by the end of next weekend 9th/10th Feb.

Shame it’s the GFS and not the ECM, the gfs has the worst verification stats this winter so I’ll still to what the ECM is showing for now but if there was ever a time for the GFS to start getting its reputation back it’s now!

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Had a very light dusting earlier which was an unexpected bonus, even if it just looked like a hard frost. 

Sunny spells and cold now. 2.9°C

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EURO4 6z looking good yet again for tomorrow, areas seeing 6 hours+ of snow in places. Looking at 5-10cm widely!

Euro4 impressive.gifAccumulation.thumb.gif.e7d807c7169d746254367e6c5fba7203.gif

Edited by Ben Sainsbury

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4 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

EURO4 6z looking good yet again for tomorrow, areas seeing 6 hours+ of snow in places. Looking at 5-10cm widely!

Euro4 impressive.gifAccumulation.thumb.gif.e7d807c7169d746254367e6c5fba7203.gif

Is it still on mate? Very conflicting opinions in the mod thread saying there's hardly any snow now.

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4 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

EURO4 6z looking good yet again for tomorrow, areas seeing 6 hours+ of snow in places. Looking at 5-10cm widely!

Euro4 impressive.gifAccumulation.thumb.gif.e7d807c7169d746254367e6c5fba7203.gif

Snow also becoming more and more likely further SW if we could just get Cornwall now under those pinks I think everyone in this thread would be more than happy with this outcome! 

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4 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Is it still on mate? Very conflicting opinions in the mod thread saying there's hardly any snow now.

Hardly any snow from Midlands north, M4 southwards should have no worries because this accounts for further southerly corrections between now and the event.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury

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4 minutes ago, TomW said:

Snow also becoming more and more likely further SW if we could just get Cornwall now under those pinks I think everyone in this thread would be more than happy with this outcome! 

Looks great. 🙂 

Lets hope we see it along those lines. Not had chance to look but anyone know where it is likely to stall?

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1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Hardly any snow from Midlands north, M4 southwards should have no worries because this accounts for further southerly corrections between now and the event.

How much do you think for Caerphilly way? Basically north Cardiff.

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Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

How much do you think for Caerphilly way? Basically north Cardiff.

South easy wales looks very good I wouldnt worry Jay.

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Just now, Nights King said:

South easy wales looks very good I wouldnt worry Jay.

Thanks, just get confused with all the different comments lol.

 

Surprised there's no amber warning.

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1 hour ago, SteveB said:

Trying my best too, but latest charts look a wintry mix at best for my location (See model thread) for latest Net Weather X charts.

I think at the very least we'll see falling snow, settling I'm not so sure but to be honest just seeing it fall will be great & I see the mid to long range is suddenly looking really good on the models, effects from the ssw finally showing up in the models perhaps. 

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1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

How much do you think for Caerphilly way? Basically north Cardiff.

SE Wales always does well in these setups looks very Jan 2013 like as things stand! Maybe not quite as much snow but I’ll take a dusting the way this winter has been going! 

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2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Thanks, just get confused with all the different comments lol.

 

Surprised there's no amber warning.

When confidence increases, I expect an amber to be in place for much of Wales and the moors of the SW.

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just had a sharp hail shower - back edge snow flakes

Edited by stevofunnelcl

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1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

When confidence increases, I expect an amber to be in place for much of Wales and the moors of the SW.

The meto only expecting 6 hours of snow giving upto 10cm so I doubt that would warrant an amber warning.

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Yeah for this region and SE in particular the 06z runs are still snowy/very snowy. Looks like 3-5hrs of moderate-heavy snow to come Thursday evening.

Of particular concern is Wiltshere, S.Gloucester and Somerset, maybe Hampshire because of the timing of the front arrives during rush hour.

Also METO will almost certainly upgrade to amber tomorrow for the east of this region, the warning matrix shows it stayed yellow not because of impact, but because of uncertainty of exact track still.

MKN - look at the warning matrix, it stayed yellow because of uncertainty of track, NOT because of a lack of impact. That will change tomorrow as we become more certain of exacts.

Edited by kold weather

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57 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

6z ICON pretty decent for most of the region tomorrow

anim_txz0.thumb.gif.37d28a490cd733a4565bd7a49472f7cd.gif

Be nice to also catch the back end of the pivot like this!

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Search results

Ian Fergusson‏Verified account @fergieweather 2h2 hours ago

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W COUNTRY THURS ☡ Keep across any modifications to @metoffice warnings for snow tomorrow. Latest indications lean to a quite widespread risk for region Thurs PM-eve; broadly ~2-8cm but w local variations. N'ward extent still uncertain. Latest Euro4 offers a fair spatial steer:

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2 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Be nice to also catch the back end of the pivot like this!

That was my thought when I seen it, couldn't ask to be in a better location for that 6Z at the moment. I'm still worrying something is going to go wrong everything is running to smoothly at the moment, I'll stop worrying when we get down to T0. 😂

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5 minutes ago, MKN said:

The meto only expecting 6 hours of snow giving upto 10cm so I doubt that would warrant an amber warning.

Warning matrix suggests an increase in confidence will result in an amber so...

Warning.thumb.jpg.413c24fc82c1bfddcfa77a99bed84b11.jpg

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Sunday lunchtime also not without interest on Icon 6z

iconeu_uk1-1-102-0.png

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