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Steve Murr

Winter viewpoint 2018 /19 NH PATTERNS

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Nice one Steve . Brilliant read . Better come of tho 😉

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Great forecast Steve and good methodology behind it. Let's hope your underplaying the cold 😂 

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Very interesting read and even if wrong, good of you to spend the time and effort to explain your reasons for why a cold winter in the UK is possible.

Thank You and hope you are right of course😉 

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I wished i could give you more than one like/thanks:oldgrin:

great read and simple to understand,thanks

 

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View interesting read, thank you.

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Great stuff Steve, appreciate you putting in so much effort. It will be really interesting how close your forecast is to reality. Fingers crossed you're on the money.

Thanks again.

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Superb read! Here’s hoping you’re right and us coldies get a fully loaded winter too

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Nice effort there Steve, learnt a lot.

Hope it’s right 👍

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Im presuming if blocking prevails into early december and we get a ssw in mid december, that can possibly mean even more extreme patterns emerging., especially if blocking is still occuring  I'm sensing a lot high latitude blocking possible early december, what effects on the northern hempishere would we expect if we added an ssw into the mix, with the blocking already established in some shape or form?

Edited by Snowjokes92
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Thanks for that analysis, Steve, you make a strong argument, well explained - hope it is on the money...time will tell!

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Great stuff big steve😉 lets hope it plans out like you say a more.❄️❄️❄️

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Thanks Steve your the man no:1 for me I have been following you for a long time and always enjoy your posts and your forecast was clear to understand brilliant 👍😜

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thank you steve. excellent post i hope it comes off.

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Great read & very interesting, especially regarding the relative warmth in the arctic helping drive the blocking.  Leaving AGW climate change aside for a minute, this also ties in quite nicely with what we know about the 1940s - as there are records showing a reduction of ice in the arctic around that time (likely ocean circulation changes) while at the same time there was some extreme winter blocking. Ice then recovered and was fairly extensive in the 60s I believe (and then even more expansive through the 70s) so probably a different process in that decade leading to some of the blocked winters that occurred. 

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Thanks for the replies I will look at any Qs tonight 🙂

Thanks @beng

didnt know that..

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Thanks for sharing your valued thoughts Steve 🙂

I'm not going to dispute anything you have written, of course as you might well know, I hope your thoughts come to fruition!!

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Good work for sticking your neck out and making a forecast, I enjoyed reading it!

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Well presented and easy to understand Steve. Thanks for taking the time and effort & sharing with us all here on NW.......Really hope your forecast comes off and that you guys and gals in UK and us snow lovers here in Ireland have a snowy winter to remember....

Bottled Snow

Edited by Bottled Snow
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On 20/11/2018 at 08:25, Steve Murr said:

Thanks for the replies I will look at any Qs tonight 🙂

Thanks @beng

didnt know that..

https://judithcurry.com/2013/04/10/historic-variations-in-arctic-sea-ice-part-ii-1920-1950/

This is quite a good read. Of course the problem we have is that no one really knows how good the data was back then (so hard to compare with now), but there's definitely some evidence of a decline around the 30s and 40s (would fit with the AMO cycle too) - although it seems to have been quite variable too (i.e. would bounce back strongly during the cold winters).

 

 

 

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