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December 2018 CET forecasts and EWP contest -- start of 2018-19 competitions


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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Cardiff
    1 hour ago, Relativistic said:

    I think there's reason to believe that it could be a while. The only other comparable month (in terms of head-and-shoulders-above-the-rest warmth) is May 1833, and that's not far off its bicentenary. Nothing, not even in the AGW era, has come close to it!

    Unless we get runaway global warming then I suspect the December 2015 event will remain a "once in a few hundred years" phenomenon.

    True, it's impossible to say the warmth in December 2015 was a direct consequence of AGW.  However, I do believe mild winter weather will become more common over the next hundred years.  BTW I take it you're a fan of Physics by your username?  I love Physics and currently an undergrad at Exeter ?

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    On behalf of J10 and myself, welcome to another new competition year with the winter season of 2018-19 fast approaching. The contests will include the CET forecast and the (still optional) EWP forecas

    Another mild washout whimper to end another naff year and my worst year ever.  Rest in pieces 2018!  12C    Last sub 0C, last sub 1C, last sub 2C, last sub 3C and last sub 4C December all in 2010.

    Hadley is confirmed as 6.9C. Joint 15th warmest. The annual CET was 10.69C, 4th warmest.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    I still would have been way out with my original 6.6c prediction, but probably would have ended up the closest, Incredible that we shall likely finish over 7c when you consider all the juicy charts that we saw at the end of November.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    3 minutes ago, Ultima Thule said:

    Agreed.  It has been effortlessly mild. 5th mildest ever December. Worrying?

    Concerning about the rest of winter, too.  I know cold winters have had mild Decembers but I'm not sure to this extent?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 hour ago, snowray said:

    I still would have been way out with my original 6.6c prediction, but probably would have ended up the closest, Incredible that we shall likely finish over 7c when you consider all the juicy charts that we saw at the end of November.

    8.0 mine was, i believe in mild 'winters'

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    5 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    Nice morning in Vancouver . A settled spell of weather for a few days before the next Pacific Low moves in later this week. First picture is looking over English Bay and entrance to Vancouver Harbour. Beyond is Bowen Island and the snow capped peaks in far distance over Upper Squamish and the Sunshine Coastal Region. Second picture was taken yesterday at my cousins home in Osoyoos, Southern Interior of BC. Still hunting for cold for you lot. The charts are very frustrating but that's one heck of a block over the British Isles and I sure the next few days will see some frost. Maybe, it will retrogress quicker than the current models show and open up for some Arctic air in the mix. Meanwhile back in Katschberg they have a 3 day snow event to look forward to from Wednesday thanks to a Arctic outbreak in Central and SE Europe. This follows on the heals of the recent snowfall in the Eastern Alps. Not much comfort to you snow lovers back in Blighty but its thanks to your high pressure block !! Lets hope your turn soon comes.

     C

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    49662985_10156605229815236_6339629727581470720_n.jpg

    Sorry sent to wrong thread.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    8.0 mine was, i believe in mild 'winters'

    Yes, 8c was yours, so well done, might as well been 8c+, horrible December, again!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    2 hours ago, Ultima Thule said:

    Agreed.  It has been effortlessly mild. 5th mildest ever December. Worrying?

    Its not mild in Greece though, as usual!!:nonono:

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    Just now, snowray said:

    Its not mild in Greece though, as usual!!:nonono:

    too far from the Atlantic

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    4 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Yes, 8c was yours, so well done, might as well been 8c+, horrible December, again!?

    Aye, some on here still don't believe our winters have changed

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    18 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Aye, some on here still don't believe our winters have changed

    Yes they have changed...a lot! I'm not saying that I agree with greenhouse gasses or GW particularly mind, but Greece and north Africa getting snow all the time is pretty weird!:fool:

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    24 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    too far from the Atlantic

    I have gone 2.1c for January...............Just to add insult to injury.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    6 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Yes they have changed...a lot! I'm not saying that I agree with greenhouse gasses or GW particularly mind, but Greece and north Africa getting snow all the time is pretty weird!:fool:

    the increased frequency of Atlantic air, and our cold spells are not as cold

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    the increased frequency of Atlantic air, and our cold spells are not as cold

    True.....BUT they are in places like Greece/Southern Italy/Turkey though.....Its madness!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    I reckon average compass point for Dec to Jan is 252 degrees, wind direction, wonder if anyone has it

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Cardiff
    45 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    I reckon average compass point for Dec to Jan is 252 degrees, wind direction, wonder if anyone has it

    Hoping spring ans summer is 180 degrees.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    the increased frequency of Atlantic air, and our cold spells are not as cold

    December 2010, bit chilly that was.

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

    Hadley is confirmed as 6.9C. Joint 15th warmest.

    The annual CET was 10.69C, 4th warmest.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Wow, 4th annual warmest is just crazy!

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
    8 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Wow, 4th annual warmest is just crazy!

    The three warmer years are 2006, 2011 and 2014 aswell. All in the last 12 years.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    Finished 5.3c here, 1.5c above the 1981-2010 average.

    70.8mm of rainfall. 105% of the average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    19 minutes ago, reef said:

    The three warmer years are 2006, 2011 and 2014 aswell. All in the last 12 years.

    That's incredible, I wasn't aware that they were ALL in the 2000's. I guess in future I will have to go with slightly higher predictions, but I'm constantly obsessing over a very cold winter CET month, one day it will happen. I'm still gutted that I didn't stick with my original 6.6c prediction. :fool:

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

    At 6.9c December 2018 shares the same mean monthly CET with December's: 1953, 1918, 1833 and 1827 (both November and December recorded a CET of 6.9 that year).

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