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Roger J Smith

December 2018 CET forecasts and EWP contest -- start of 2018-19 competitions

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6.9c to the 27th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 6.7c to the 16th, 17th & 19th

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6.9c to the 28th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 6.7c to the 16th, 17th & 19th

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Sunny Sheffield up to 6.2C +1.3C above normal. Rainfall unchanged. Landing zone at present looks between 6.3C and 6.5C. Well we know one thing. Winter 18/19 is very likely to be on the mild side. 

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I wonder if we could just edge over 7.0C before corrections- today is very mild, one of the mildest days of the month.

There are certainly going to be no falls before the end of the month.

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20 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I wonder if we could just edge over 7.0C before corrections- today is very mild, one of the mildest days of the month.

There are certainly going to be no falls before the end of the month.

because the wind has got up, always milder then, i went for 8.0C around 19th Nov, maybe 0.8 degree out

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11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

because the wind has got up, always milder then, i went for 8.0C around 19th Nov, maybe 0.8 degree out

You will be a lot closer than most of the coldies that's for sure. If there's no adjustment you could even be within a degree.

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Just now, Scorcher said:

You will be a lot closer than most of the coldies that's for sure. If there's no adjustment you could even be within a degree.

Ay, some members went for 6 point something though, my guess for Jan is 5.9

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5.0c here to the 28th, 1.1c above the 1981-2010 average.

70mm so far.

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If the CET were to finish on 7 it would be only behind these years in the last 100

1. 2015, 2. 1974, 3. 1934, 4. 1988 5. 2018?

 

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6 hours ago, Matthew. said:

If the CET were to finish on 7 it would be only behind these years in the last 100

1. 2015, 2. 1974, 3. 1934, 4. 1988 5. 2018?

 

It would also be the 15th warmest in the 360 year CET series.

There's only been 27 winter months with a CET of 7.0C or above in that 360 years, so its up there with the worst.

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Sunny Sheffield at 6.3C +1.5C above normal. Rainfall now at 91.8mm 105.6% of normal. The end zone looking like 6.4C to 6.5C.

Edited by The PIT
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A quick check shows this to be for us that it could be the 5th warmest on record. 

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7.0c to the 29th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 6.7c to the 16th, 17th & 19th

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Wonder how long until we get a 10C+ CET in December.  I also think we'll get our first 20C CET month before 2025.

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3 hours ago, Evening Star said:

Wonder how long until we get a 10C+ CET in December.  I also think we'll get our first 20C CET month before 2025.

We came pretty close to it in Dec 2015 with 9.7, and this was a whopping 1.6*C warmer than any other December in CET history, and also higher than all Marches, and all Novembers with the exception of 1994 (10.1*C).  We have still to date only had one November with a CET of 10*C+ and that was in 1994.

We have already had a 20*C CET month, although not contained within one calendar month.  The warmest 31 day period on record as far as I know was July 24th to August 23rd 1995 which had a CET of 20.3*C (correct me if I am wrong).  I believe that there was also a 31 day period in June to July 1976 that was over 20*C.  

As far as calendar months are concerned, the July 2006 CET of 19.7 was not far off 20*C, and in that year the really hot spell almost exactly coincided with the calendar month.  We have had another notably hot July this year (the fourth hottest calendar month on record, and only the fourth month in CET history to record a CET of 19*C+).

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2 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

We came pretty close to it in Dec 2015 with 9.7, and this was a whopping 1.6*C warmer than any other December in CET history, and also higher than all Marches, and all Novembers with the exception of 1994 (10.1*C).  We have still to date only had one November with a CET of 10*C+ and that was in 1994.

We have already had a 20*C CET month, although not contained within one calendar month.  The warmest 31 day period on record as far as I know was July 24th to August 23rd 1995 which had a CET of 20.3*C (correct me if I am wrong).  I believe that there was also a 31 day period in June to July 1976 that was over 20*C.  

As far as calendar months are concerned, the July 2006 CET of 19.7 was not far off 20*C, and in that year the really hot spell almost exactly coincided with the calendar month.  We have had another notably hot July this year (the fourth hottest calendar month on record, and only the fourth month in CET history to record a CET of 19*C+).

I enjoyed December 2015 quite a bit just because of how exceptional it was.  I remember one morning being 15C which would be more typical for an afternoon in late April!  Would have been incredible if it was sunny too.  Quite exceptional too that it was higher than any March CET, did not expect that!

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This December really has been absolutely dire and has even felt worse than 2015 in some ways!

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7 hours ago, Evening Star said:

Wonder how long until we get a 10C+ CET in December.  I also think we'll get our first 20C CET month before 2025.

not long, and record warm Jan's and Feb's too

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5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not long, and record warm Jan's and Feb's too

I so wish I was a mildie! ☹️

January 2019 - 8.1C

February 2019 - 8.8C

December 2019 - 11.2C

There you go, not long until the next record breaking December, January and February......

Edited by Don

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wish I was too, then suddenly the post christmas pudding will begin, and cold winters will be back

can't be a mildie though yuk

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6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

wish I was too, then suddenly the post christmas pudding will begin, and cold winters will be back

can't be a mildie though yuk

No way will I ever be a mildie!  If I have to take winter holidays to colder climes to beat global warming, that's what I will do!

EDIT:  And that could be pretty soon, too!

Edited by Don

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34 minutes ago, Don said:

No way will I ever be a mildie!  If I have to take winter holidays to colder climes to beat global warming, that's what I will do!

EDIT:  And that could be pretty soon, too!

I must be an infamous mildie haha!  Although if it's cold it's gotta to be proper cold for me with snow.  Otherwise just give me some sunshine and warmth none of this dreary weather we're having.

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Sunny Sheffield at 6.4C and will finish on that figure unless it's a lot milder than temperatures forecast for today. So that's +1.8C above normal. Rainfall is at 91.8mm 105.6% of normal and this is unlikely to change either.

Latest GFS and ECM runs don't indicate a major cold spell for the first part of Jan either as high looks set to stay for a considerable time with above average values returning by Friday. The question is which way will it jiggle. At the moment it's going the wrong way.

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23 hours ago, Evening Star said:

Wonder how long until we get a 10C+ CET in December.  I also think we'll get our first 20C CET month before 2025.

I think there's reason to believe that it could be a while. The only other comparable month (in terms of head-and-shoulders-above-the-rest warmth) is May 1833, and that's not far off its bicentenary. Nothing, not even in the AGW era, has come close to it!

Unless we get runaway global warming then I suspect the December 2015 event will remain a "once in a few hundred years" phenomenon.

Edited by Relativistic

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7.1c to the 30th

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 6.7c to the 16th, 17th & 19th

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