December 2018 CET forecasts and EWP contest -- start of 2018-19 competitions

[Evening Star 46]

1 hour ago, Relativistic said:

I think there's reason to believe that it could be a while. The only other comparable month (in terms of head-and-shoulders-above-the-rest warmth) is May 1833, and that's not far off its bicentenary. Nothing, not even in the AGW era, has come close to it!

Unless we get runaway global warming then I suspect the December 2015 event will remain a "once in a few hundred years" phenomenon.

True, it's impossible to say the warmth in December 2015 was a direct consequence of AGW.  However, I do believe mild winter weather will become more common over the next hundred years.  BTW I take it you're a fan of Physics by your username?  I love Physics and currently an undergrad at Exeter 🙂

[snowray 4,354]

I still would have been way out with my original 6.6c prediction, but probably would have ended up the closest, Incredible that we shall likely finish over 7c when you consider all the juicy charts that we saw at the end of November.

[Ultima Thule 0]

21 hours ago, Don said:

This December really has been absolutely dire and has even felt worse than 2015 in some ways!

Agreed.  It has been effortlessly mild. 5th mildest ever December. Worrying😳

[Don 1,429]

3 minutes ago, Ultima Thule said:

Agreed.  It has been effortlessly mild. 5th mildest ever December. Worrying😳

Concerning about the rest of winter, too.  I know cold winters have had mild Decembers but I'm not sure to this extent?

[I remember Atlantic 252 4,625]

1 hour ago, snowray said:

I still would have been way out with my original 6.6c prediction, but probably would have ended up the closest, Incredible that we shall likely finish over 7c when you consider all the juicy charts that we saw at the end of November.

8.0 mine was, i believe in mild 'winters'

[carinthian 9,629]

5 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Nice morning in Vancouver . A settled spell of weather for a few days before the next Pacific Low moves in later this week. First picture is looking over English Bay and entrance to Vancouver Harbour. Beyond is Bowen Island and the snow capped peaks in far distance over Upper Squamish and the Sunshine Coastal Region. Second picture was taken yesterday at my cousins home in Osoyoos, Southern Interior of BC. Still hunting for cold for you lot. The charts are very frustrating but that's one heck of a block over the British Isles and I sure the next few days will see some frost. Maybe, it will retrogress quicker than the current models show and open up for some Arctic air in the mix. Meanwhile back in Katschberg they have a 3 day snow event to look forward to from Wednesday thanks to a Arctic outbreak in Central and SE Europe. This follows on the heals of the recent snowfall in the Eastern Alps. Not much comfort to you snow lovers back in Blighty but its thanks to your high pressure block !! Lets hope your turn soon comes.

 C

Sorry sent to wrong thread.

[Optimus Prime 918]

4 hours ago, Evening Star said:

True, it's impossible to say the warmth in December 2015 was a direct consequence of AGW.  

With a CET 9.7°C...I bet it was!

[snowray 4,354]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

8.0 mine was, i believe in mild 'winters'

Yes, 8c was yours, so well done, might as well been 8c+, horrible December, again!😣

[snowray 4,354]

2 hours ago, Ultima Thule said:

Agreed.  It has been effortlessly mild. 5th mildest ever December. Worrying😳

Its not mild in Greece though, as usual!!

[I remember Atlantic 252 4,625]

Just now, snowray said:

Its not mild in Greece though, as usual!!

too far from the Atlantic

[I remember Atlantic 252 4,625]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes, 8c was yours, so well done, might as well been 8c+, horrible December, again!😣

Aye, some on here still don't believe our winters have changed

[snowray 4,354]

18 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, some on here still don't believe our winters have changed

Yes they have changed...a lot! I'm not saying that I agree with greenhouse gasses or GW particularly mind, but Greece and north Africa getting snow all the time is pretty weird!

[snowray 4,354]

24 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

too far from the Atlantic

I have gone 2.1c for January...............Just to add insult to injury.

[I remember Atlantic 252 4,625]

6 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes they have changed...a lot! I'm not saying that I agree with greenhouse gasses or GW particularly mind, but Greece and north Africa getting snow all the time is pretty weird!

the increased frequency of Atlantic air, and our cold spells are not as cold

[snowray 4,354]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

the increased frequency of Atlantic air, and our cold spells are not as cold

True.....BUT they are in places like Greece/Southern Italy/Turkey though.....Its madness!

[I remember Atlantic 252 4,625]

I reckon average compass point for Dec to Jan is 252 degrees, wind direction, wonder if anyone has it

[Evening Star 46]

45 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I reckon average compass point for Dec to Jan is 252 degrees, wind direction, wonder if anyone has it

Hoping spring ans summer is 180 degrees.

[DAVID SNOW 3,311]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

the increased frequency of Atlantic air, and our cold spells are not as cold

December 2010, bit chilly that was.

[Matthew. 1,529]

6.9c final December CET 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

6.89c to 2 decimal places

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2018

Edited January 1 by Matthew.

[reef 2,502]

Hadley is confirmed as 6.9C. Joint 15th warmest.

The annual CET was 10.69C, 4th warmest.

[snowray 4,354]

Wow, 4th annual warmest is just crazy!

[reef 2,502]

8 minutes ago, snowray said:

Wow, 4th annual warmest is just crazy!

The three warmer years are 2006, 2011 and 2014 aswell. All in the last 12 years.

[vizzy2004 1,366]

Finished 5.3c here, 1.5c above the 1981-2010 average.

70.8mm of rainfall. 105% of the average.

[snowray 4,354]

19 minutes ago, reef said:

The three warmer years are 2006, 2011 and 2014 aswell. All in the last 12 years.

That's incredible, I wasn't aware that they were ALL in the 2000's. I guess in future I will have to go with slightly higher predictions, but I'm constantly obsessing over a very cold winter CET month, one day it will happen. I'm still gutted that I didn't stick with my original 6.6c prediction. 

 

Edited January 1 by snowray

[Walsall Wood Snow 1,074]

At 6.9c December 2018 shares the same mean monthly CET with December's: 1953, 1918, 1833 and 1827 (both November and December recorded a CET of 6.9 that year).