The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Rambo said:

But he hasnt even done his winter forecast yet??

Or are you referring to the seasonal models as "experts"?

Yes!!!

[SLEETY]

the met lag behind sometimes in their extended forecasts,seen it a few times before.Keep the faith 

[tight isobar]

Well still a data/server issue with ecm 12z..

Trying to be restored...a late late out 2night!!!

[That ECM]

15 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

GP why are the Met going for a milder run up to Xmas on their extended then ? 

Cheers

Because they have different opinions and it’s forecasting. No one knows for sure it’s  what makes it fun and interesting

Edited November 27, 2018 by That ECM

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

the met lag behind sometimes in their extended forecasts,seen it a few times before.Keep the faith 

That is the pattern i expect but i expect it to manifest in January, Not December, i would expect the Met Office forecast to mention cold right at the end in around 1-1 and a half weeks time.

[Summer Sun]

40 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

EC 12Z? thought it was 6-7pm

They have an issue

"Problem on the ECMWF server. Not possible to recover the 12Z data for now. Problems on ECMWF server. Unable to get 12Z data for now."

[Stuie]

ECM out to 24H....

[SMU]

4 hours ago, frosty ground said:

 

Don't see it because it's not there, see heights to the south (Blue) , but the mean flow is south westerly (red).

 

The isoline thats in England traces back to Scandi.

Edited November 27, 2018 by Mapantz
No need for personal insults

[karlos1983]

I think I might actually self combust if I read Met Office says xyz  again , they have been wrong before and will be wrong in the future, as will the Italian Met, Meteo France, Met Murr etc etc etc. They update there forecasts almost as often as we all change the weather patterns in here Especially for D15-30!

Meanwhile no ECM yet, which means it’s going to be amazing (at D10)

Looked at GFS rolled my eyes, then saw the GEFS ........ not to shabby at all towards the end. 

[tight isobar]

Well anyways...

Ec-120..

Looking decent @the pole..

And some decent waa arms russian-pacific side...as good as any of late for shearing the vortex..and maybe punching a split!!..

Decent heights!!!!

Edit ; and placements 2 add!

Edited November 27, 2018 by tight isobar

[SMU]

As we look deeper past 144 for a look at possible blocking heading up towards Scandi the UKMO day 6 highlights that there is 'some' potential coming in the shape of a NNW from Iceland gradually bringing in sub -5c air into Scotland, could be some wintry showers day 7 & some welcome snow for the scottish mountains -

Also the atlantic low may track across that cold bringing further wintryness however its a long way out ATM -

ECM also has colder air south @120 with a shallow slider moving across the UK may prompt some wintryness

At 144 the pole & AO is tanking with high pressure

[cheeky_monkey]

dont know why you guys cant see the ECM ..full run been out here for over an hour

[Stuie]

Well, as far as I can see, the EC wants to finish with a NW`erly.

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T 168:

Clear cross polar linkage, as we've seen on runs for a couple of days now, t240:

clearly the NH position is the positive here, UK some work to do, but possibility of pushing up a ridge in the Atlantic if it went on a few more frames?

[northwestsnow]

EC is better for me this evening-

Day 10 and could we see the azores high move into the vaccum to our north?

[Stuie]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

EC is better for me this evening-

Day 10 and could we see the azores high move into the vaccum to our north?

The smallest signs of an azores/greenie ridge... maybe my tinted glasses but I can see it.....

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is better for me this evening-

Day 10 and could we see the azores high move into the vaccum to our north?

I doubt it - look at the evolution from 216 - 240 - everything moving to quick, thats near to rampant zonality, i dont expect that to verify either but expect any ridging to the NE of us to remain out of reach and not influence our weather throughout most of December with a -ve anom over Greenland being just too influential.

[Stuie]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is better for me this evening-

Day 10 and could we see the azores high move into the vaccum to our north?

In fact Northwest, it is a little more evident when you look at the 850`s....

Posting again...

 

[Mapantz]

Let's put an end to the snide remarks and personal insults now, shall we?!

Thank you! 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I doubt it - look at the evolution from 216 - 240 - everything moving to quick, thats near to rampant zonality, i dont expect that to verify either but expect any ridging to the NE of us to remain out of reach and not influence our weather throughout most of December with a -ve anom over Greenland being just too influential.

Well you could be right Feb, of course.

Day 10 does see some slackening of pressure to our North /North east so even if this ridge doesn't make it i suspect we will eventually see some amplification in the Atlantic.My theory would be the trough to our NE would very much assist in shutting of the euro heights.

As you say , its day 10 and probably won't look exactly like that ..

I'm still firmly in a pessimistic frame of mind moving forward but for me EC is an improvement on this morning..

[BlueHedgehog074]

Have unhidden Steve’s post for now, what with it having being edited. But remember guys, there are ways to respond to someone you disagree, or are annoyed with, without being rude. Cheers! And on we go with the model output.  

[blizzard81]

Nothing too special by the end of the ecm run - toppler. Saw a lot of these in the early noughties. 

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Nothing too special by the end of the ecm run - toppler. Saw a lot of these in the early noughties. 

Can't help but notice that blocking high over the Pole on that chart .

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well you could be right Feb, of course.

Day 10 does see some slackening of pressure to our North /North east so even if this ridge doesn't make it i suspect we will eventually see some amplification in the Atlantic.My theory would be the trough to our NE would very much assist in shutting of the euro heights.

As you say , its day 10 and probably won't look exactly like that ..

I'm still firmly in a pessimistic frame of mind moving forward but for me EC is an improvement on this morning..

A change in the EPS mean at 240, i wonder if this is one of those times when the op has skewed the mean on the ECM. Flat across the atlantic although not all bad news, a huge high far East ridging into the pole, trying its best to lower heighs over Europe and at least its on a WNW - ESE axis across the atlantic so PM maybe possible D12 -13(ish).

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Can't help but notice that blocking high over the Pole on that chart .

That’s about as much use as a chocolate fireguard to us all the way over there. Good job it’s at D10

Edited November 27, 2018 by karlos1983