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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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gfseu-0-132.png?6

Amazing what a wedge of high pressure can do, low heading north but maybe to much momentum in the atlantic atm

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2 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

We haven't vanished at all, there really isn't anything to say no as the outcome is becoming ever clearer. I don't think people can say there is a new 'trend' just by looking at one model run from one particular model. The ICON 12Z could simply revert back to the ICON 0Z. There is currently no consistent trend.

Agreed, Apple...Given this, at T+117, I'd still favour an Atlantic incursion, of some kind. But to what extent and for how long?

Netweather GFS Image

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The GFS 06z makes a swing to the ICON by holding the continental air in situ for longer & does indeed allign better than the 00z - however the halfway house just does delay inevitable movement of the altantic-

The 12zs would need to continue to move the atlantic west as well as the jet backing SW through scandi to create any meaningful change...

Edited by Steve Murr
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Though looking bleak, in the medium-term, who know's the eventual outcome? It's all Shannon's fault!😁

Netweather GFS Image

Edited by Ed Stone
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11 minutes ago, dixonoid said:

Omg!! I do believe the hunt for cold is over, in my freezer there was ice everywhere,on a serious note, this year has been controlled by high pressure one way or another, after the strat warming earlier in the year, the weather hasn't been the same, no constant attacks from low pressure from the Atlantic, so the odds are, if we get the blocking high in the right position I feel this winter is going to be very cold and I looks like mainly coming from the east. With the PV allover the place, not allowing a strong jet, which produces the low pressure conveyer and any future strat warming are just going to play further unpredictable havock with our weather, warmer sst's after the summer will help with the North sea snow Machine when a proper easterly sets up 🙂

 

 

 

I've seen a few people saying this, but it makes no sense. An SSW is just a response to a large scale planetary wave propagating upwards from the troposphere. They happen every couple of years or so.

Anyway, the 6Zs continue the theme of deflecting the worst of the Atlantic away to our NW so thankfully not wet (for most), but not very interesting either in terms of a hunt for cold. The FI search for renewed amplification begins in earnest. 

 

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5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Though looking bleak, in the medium-term, who know's the eventual outcome? It's all Shannon's fault!😁

Netweather GFS Image

I don’t see what Michael Shannon’s acting has to do with any of this? 🤔 

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The gulf between gfs and ecm this morning at day 10 is quite staggering imo.The mobility theme west to east looks to be on the up but who knows???

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Isn’t this quite a significant warming around day 10 on the gfs 6z ? 

76754533-8124-4B09-97B2-7462C2074AE3.png

59A04DAC-787E-49E7-AF80-A40DD4BFA326.png

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6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Isn’t this quite a significant warming around day 10 on the gfs 6z ? 

76754533-8124-4B09-97B2-7462C2074AE3.png

59A04DAC-787E-49E7-AF80-A40DD4BFA326.png

Yes - we are due a wave 1 displacement of the strat vortex towards the eurAsian side of the NH  by the end week 2 ..... what happens thereafter .............

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Yes - & the GFS ENS 00z today paint a significant downturn in the upper zonal wind at a speed that is alligned to a reversal in december-

Of note in the 06z ENS there are a few more runs that bring the deep cold further west around 120-144- more than 00z but not a significant number overall-

That said there is a trend there- one that we want which lifts the low further NW & allows energy to trickle underneath-

The run that best fits the Icon 06z is PTB 12 which at 120 looks line this at 144 & produces a snow event 156-168

 

67E1925B-D121-4110-BDA3-EE2850C55B6B.thumb.png.294044d147b9a6ac425fe11808d60a2d.png1A448ACB-73DF-4D7A-A51D-15B0ACC6FE4E.thumb.png.b3b8fad2cc96b988054ee122e7eea737.png6130B0DC-918F-4B78-B960-050E835CF1D2.thumb.png.a3236c3c937c530f20bccf41e89cde90.png

Interesting times...

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gens-9-1-144.png

Run 9 for the win, but the reality is these runs are few and far between.

Run 7 is a classic with a front getting into western UK turning to snow then being pushed back, 
gens-7-1-144.png

 

Edited by frosty ground

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Not sure whether I'd call the GFS's suggestion of a Greenland-Atlantic ridge (on day 15!) a trend... but I guess it's a start? That said, the European cold block's not progged to go 'poof', until around the middle of next week, either. A lot can happen, in six days!

Baby steps, until mid-December?⏳

 

Edited by Ed Stone
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06z

LP to watch for Tues next week (December!) 😯

Crosses Alba

101011010110.thumb.png.0202b38e3088ea97653385210dd72d2b.png

Opens the Arctic pipeline

22222222222222222222222222222.thumb.png.ebc185d6717286291e5082597edc8d97.png

Result?

First real ppn shot for N altitudes.

uksnowrisk.thumb.png.0d37a2274746ce98470762bff0bd409f.png

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Somebody here said that the BBC monthly forecast is quite bullish about mild SW winds early-mid Dec which is interesting in a way, although not good news for most of us. However latest JMA monthly for this period seems to have some HLB going on: 

Y201811.D2112.png

 

Interesting (though somewhat worrying) what Crewe Cold said about the long range models going for cold UK winter being predicated on a SSW in mid-late Dec, and that without it HLB will be difficult to achieve. Fingers crossed it does happen !

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Please keep personal conversations to PM, cheers.

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Looking at the EPS clusters, seems to be decent support (circa 45% of members) for an upper ridge to build over Scandi by day 10, with a greater number still of ens members suggesting the Atlantic troughing making little headway east past the UK, though not necessarily building a high over Scandi. So, for now, think we may need to look east for the chance of deep cold.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018112200_240.thumb.png.e9ef83a492ec6d803507c5746291c1a4.png

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FI stuff, but as long as charts like this keep showing I will be an avid follower, a very amateurish one, of this forum for the prospects of winter to come

FC727642-2F53-41F5-8DEB-A369AD7F6673.png

1C15600F-9BDB-4F93-854D-A3813A5F1ABD.png

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8 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

FI stuff, but as long as charts like this keep showing I will be an avid follower, a very amateurish one, of this forum for the prospects of winter to come

FC727642-2F53-41F5-8DEB-A369AD7F6673.png

1C15600F-9BDB-4F93-854D-A3813A5F1ABD.png

It's good to see that we have multiple options open to us: from the east, northeast, north; better by far than in all those years when the only cold there was was stuck over Greenland, with no way out?:cold:

Edited by Ed Stone
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Maybe a very slight recovery in temps for some over the weekend but it looks like we'll see another burst of chiller air early next week before winds eventually swing around to a milder direction

output_bUjtqP.thumb.gif.ba074e212301624a1cbf46b78326c582.gif

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30 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It's good to see that we have multiple options open to us: from the east, northeast, north; better by far than in all those years when the only cold there was was stuck over Greenland, with no way out?

A dog with no tail has nothing to chase, hopefully we can catch the tail

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2 hours ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

06z

LP to watch for Tues next week (December!) 😯

Crosses Alba

101011010110.thumb.png.0202b38e3088ea97653385210dd72d2b.png

Opens the Arctic pipeline

22222222222222222222222222222.thumb.png.ebc185d6717286291e5082597edc8d97.png

Result?

First real ppn shot for N altitudes.

uksnowrisk.thumb.png.0d37a2274746ce98470762bff0bd409f.png

it's still November next Tuesday. we are very much still autumn watch!!

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The main thing in the medium range is the rebuilding of a block towards Scandinavia around about day 10. 

8 of the next ten days are in November.

So to me that looks like a good way to start meteorological winter

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