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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


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If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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"In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly"

Poor update for the West. Was really hoping for a Greeni high.  Little snow here in the March Easterly. 

Hopefully the high would take a trip to Greenland after Scandi and we can get some troughs in a northerly flow. 

Lancashire still one of the worst places in the country for snow. 

Looking forward to model watching over Christmas however and hope others do well. 

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Meant to post this last night  but some forecasters saying mild Christmas. At this range ,about any thing could turn up ,strange year weather wise so far ,snow in the forecast tomorrow , STORMY with i

I'm sorry for being off topic but I'm sure mods will forgive me for this one. Very sorry to hear you're missing your wife, this time of year can be especially hard and you can't just switch off that s

I love having the FV3 now.  There used to be that dead time between the end of the GFS and the start of the ECM where I had to talk to the wife.  Not any more ?

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1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

"In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly"

Poor update for the West. Was really hoping for a Greeni high.  Little snow here in the March Easterly. 

Hopefully the high would take a trip to Greenland after Scandi and we can get some troughs in a northerly flow. 

Lancashire still one of the worst places in the country for snow. 

Looking forward to model watching over Christmas however and hope others do well. 

I was about to write a post about how various scenarios could form and how different areas could see snow, then I thought, it'd probably be easier if you move ?

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Another excellent Exeter update, i wouldn't get too hung up on the reference to mild wet and windy, we are an island at the edge of a warm ocean, we are always going to be at the mercy of the Atlantic..

I for one will be keeping a close eye on eps etc for signs of any high pressure ridging into scandy longer term,what i absolutely do not want to see is a growing signal for high pressure to sink into Europe, thats generally a pattern that eats away at large chunks of winter.

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Just now, c00ps said:

I was about to write a post about how various scenarios could form and how different areas could see snow, then I thought, it'd probably be easier if you move ?

Sliders go underneath. 

Easterlies don't reach

Northerly 'wishbone effect'

Channel runners too far South.

North Westerlies never cold enough. 

Breakdown snow = too wet and = end of cold spell. 

Anyway we'll see. Looking forward to January and hope all can get involved. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, c00ps said:

I was about to write a post about how various scenarios could form and how different areas could see snow, then I thought, it'd probably be easier if you move ?

I feel for anyone west of the M6, its up there with the south west as the least favourable locations for anyone wanting snow and cold..we can safely blame the irish sea for the woes of those residing in Lancs!!

Anyway, as i said, i'm looking for signals of High pressure moving into the north sea and ridging north longer term during the next few days..

Any HP as long as it isn't centered to our S/SW it will bring cold frosty weather to the UK, esp at this time of year..(Mid feb onwards a different story ).

Edited by northwestsnow
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15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 Concerned that some of you are at the stage where you are extrapolating a day 16 gfs op chart on several more days ........

if you are one of these people then you may need help! 

Where should one go then if can't talk about cold chart that shows cold then?

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7 minutes ago, booferking said:

Where should one go then if can't talk about cold chart that shows cold then?

One was talking about a possible chart several days on from a chart at day 16 ………….a day 16 gfs chart is worth little to begin with and then imagining what it may look like several days later...… im sure you see my point ….. 

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1 hour ago, Don said:

It seems that things are taking a turn for the worst at the moment with the Metoffice less bullish about the cold spell in January, too.  However, still a long way to go.

Have they been bullish about anything so far this late Autumn/Winter?...strikes me they have little confidence whether cold or mild.

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ecm was trying to retrogress the high towards greenland ,so easterly was looking possible ,then it somehow sunk the high the other way,at the end.Hope to see more improvement on that high in the next run.

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1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

not necessarily,polor lows would form in that bitterly cold air mass,which could give snow to many places,if it verified of course,

if that  384 chart ran a few more days it would end up looking close to feb1969

 

0AD70F16-840F-46B1-AA2E-6BEAA40751DF.png

F88B80BA-46CC-4942-9291-8E8030A35145.png

Yes maximum day time temperature of -5c with heavy powdery snow and  a northerly gale.Just made it to secondary school 7 miles  awayand was immediately turned round. Took 2 hours to travel back 6 miles and then bus got stuck and we walked the last mile through the fields as the farm road had filled in between two four foot high dykes. Arrived home with one side of our faces snow encrusted. Still have the fax chart for middday from my grans Daily Telegraph as even then I thought it was something special.  November / December 2010 almost matched it but was lacking the strong wind.

Edited by Northernlights
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1 hour ago, fromey said:

Not bad at all

9C548F9A-06D1-4E84-84C4-07CE96525A93.jpeg

Looks like reversal I wonder if we could get a 1963 looking at that maybe a week later than 63 but interesting.

But then this warming not a Canadian warming like 63.

But nevertheless it's very interesting I found the gefs was pretty consistent back in winter 2010 so exciting model watching coming up.

Hopefully 

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17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

One was talking about a possible chart several days on from a chart at day 16 ………….a day 16 gfs chart is worth little to begin with and then imagining what it may look like several days later...… im sure you see my point ….. 

Because, right now Blue, it's all we have.

 

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24 minutes ago, booferking said:

Where should one go then if can't talk about cold chart that shows cold then?

When I dared suggest that some of the shameless ramping, withing the pages of this thread, was almost pointless, I was promptly put in my place: 'This the Hunt for Cold thread...,' I was told...So, fair enough, that's what I now do: Hunt for Cold...:drunk:

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Still concerning that the OP is not going for a reversal while every single GEFS member convincingly does with the average wind speed being -15. One of them is going to have their reputations permanently ruined in a couple of weeks.

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13 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Still concerning that the OP is not going for a reversal while every single GEFS member convincingly does with the average wind speed being -15. One of them is going to have their reputations permanently ruined in a couple of weeks.

When would you  expect the ops to pick it up if it occurs ???

Edited by swfc
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11 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Still concerning that the OP is not going for a reversal while every single GEFS member convincingly does with the average wind speed being -15. One of them is going to have their reputations permanently ruined in a couple of weeks.

It is a bit of a concern today, I admit, it does look like the SSW is on slightly shakier ground than some of us thought. 

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

When would expect the ops to pick it up????

If it is going to happen I would have expected it more likely to be picked up by the op runs first?

I would also like to see this wind reversal shown on ECM, but obviously this only goes out to day 10.  Reversal today at 3mb for first time on today's ECM at T240.

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It is a bit of a concern today, I admit, it does look like the SSW is on slightly shakier ground than some of us thought. 

If it is going to happen I would have expected it more likely to be picked up by the op runs first?

I would also like to see this wind reversal shown on ECM, but obviously this only goes out to day 10.  Reversal today at 3mb for first time on today's ECM at T240.

But gfs op drops to lower resolution after day ten and is the same resolution as the ensembles isn’t it ? ? 

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33 minutes ago, Northernlights said:

Yes maximum day time temperature of -5c with heavy powdery snow and  a northerly gale.Just made it to secondary school 7 miles  awayand was immediately turned round. Took 2 hours to travel back 6 miles and then bus got stuck and we walked the last mile through the fields as the farm road had filled in between two four foot high dykes. Arrived home with one side of our faces snow encrusted. Still have the fax chart for middday from my grans Daily Telegraph as even then I thought it was something special.  November / December 2010 almost matched it but was lacking the strong wind.

G'd arvo, NL...from one 'old fart' to another...:santa-emoji:

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4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

But gfs op drops to lower resolution after day ten and is the same resolution as the ensembles isn’t it ? ? 

Think the concern is that it is picking up on something that the ensembles might not be, while it is in high res before day 10?  More runs needed!

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So it looks and sounds like the ssw could be on shaky ground. Models don’t look particularly exciting either. Think it’s time to take a break from the hunt for cold till after Xmas to save my sanity. So I will wish everyone a happy Christmas. And hope for maybe better news and output into the new year. Merry Christmas and a happy new year to all. 

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Think the concern is that it is picking up on something that the ensembles might not be, while it is in high res before day 10?  More runs needed!

Yer maybe Mike . I do remember a tweet from Ian F the other day and him saying the GFS was to quick with the reversal , so hopefully it’s a timing issue . ??

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22 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Well it shows some good progress ☺

Colder days ahead

ECMF_phase_51m_full (2).gif

This is what I've been waiting to see - the adjustments toward stronger, more propagating activity not only continuing but growing in daily amount too.

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