The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Radiating Dendrite]

ECM is pleasing at 216 - heights look likely to move NW whilst lows come under and in to Southern Europe.

240 is not great though - high sinks back over Europe.

Edited December 17, 2018 by Radiating Dendrite

[Seasonality]

GEM and ECM broadly similar for Christmas. Hoping they have it right because it looks like a white Christmas for my location. 

[booferking]

Very surprised there's not been very much said about the potential in ukmo very close to dragging down some very cold air from the north east petty it doesn't go on any further to see the big day wouldn't be far away i think also the navgem is similar at 144hr and ends loaded with potential at 180hr.

[Johnp]

46 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Looks like the split's gone tits up, hopefully temporary.

Please tell me the cold weather in January hasn't gone belly up too?

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Very surprised there's not been very much said about the potential in ukmo very close to dragging down some very cold air from the north east petty it doesn't go on any further to see the big day wouldn't be far away i think also the navgem is similar at 144hr and ends loaded with potential at 180hr.

I agree with your thoughts about ukmo but I don’t think navgem is close around Christmas. Imo high over or to our north. Ecm  closer to the mark. Can someone put up the ukmo at t168 please as for once we will be able to see the area of interest.?

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Johnp said:

Please tell me the cold weather in January hasn't gone belly up too?

No - definitely not

hopefully just a delay - well hopefully actually that the models will show a favourable split in next few days

Edited December 17, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Paul_1978]

55 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Looks like the split's gone tits up, hopefully temporary.

Was a split even “on” other than in the far reaches of FI?

Where did you see that it’s gone TU anyway?

[bluearmy]

Anyone expecting to see height rises in the n Atlantic (Iceland west) in the 10/16 day period  - the GEFS say impossible with low Greenland anomolys 

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I agree with your thoughts about ukmo but I don’t think navgem is close around Christmas. Imo high over or to our north. Ecm  closer to the mark. Can someone put up the ukmo at t168 please as for once we will be able to see the area of interest.?

Both are not very far away couple of tweaks wouldn't take much more for navgem to pull cold air from NE just need that low to track further East South East but likely all change next run ..

[Duane S.]

20 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Please tell me the cold weather in January hasn't gone belly up too?

No no no.

It hasn't.

It's one run.

And even then, nobody can predict the outcome, split or no split after the initial displacement.

It's still looking absolutely fantastic in terms of prospects. Same old same old, we could of course still be unlucky but when you get charts like this, it is never without massive reprocussions...

The warming proper coming into range on the ECM this morning

 

Complete and utter toast...

 

Edited December 17, 2018 by s4lancia

[That ECM]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Anyone expecting to see height rises in the n Atlantic (Iceland west) in the 10/16 day period  - the GEFS say impossible with low Greenland anomolys 

The gefs might but what do you think?

[mountain shadow]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Anyone expecting to see height rises in the n Atlantic (Iceland west) in the 10/16 day period  - the GEFS say impossible with low Greenland anomolys 

This has been showing in many ops runs for a while now

Very much manyana, manyana as we wait to see if the strat warming impacts favorably on the trop.

Who knows, maybe the strat influence will simply result in the trop PV being pushed across to Greenland where its been largely absent from so far?

[northwestsnow]

EC again making more of High pressure- at this stage, a cold high esp the further north you go with temps struggling over Xmas..

Looking at the EC mean though there doesn't look to be much appetite for any signs of high pressure being able to move into the Atlantic- low heights coming out of Canada likely the culprit..

 

[swfc]

Id agree with BA tbh.Nothing in the next 10 or so would indicate anything other than maybe an area of high pressure over the uk ie seasonal temps imo.hopefully into the new year proper things pick up cold and wintry weather wise

[Summer Sun]

Hints of high-pressure building as we end 2018 and move into 2019 depending on where it sets up it could draw in some chillier air at the surface like we did last week

Edited December 17, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Badgers01]

11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

This has been showing in many ops runs for a while now

Very much manyana, manyana as we wait to see if the strat warming impacts favorably on the trop.

Who knows, maybe the strat influence will simply result in the trop PV being pushed across to Greenland where its been largely absent from so far?

This would be the heart break option ! It is unfortunately one of the outcome that would prove the rule re Uk winters and what could could possibly go wrong will go wrong. Would feel much more confident if we could at least some tasty charts in FI but even that seems elusive at the moment.

[bluearmy]

16 minutes ago, That ECM said:

The gefs might but what do you think?

 

11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

This has been showing in many ops runs for a while now

Very much manyana, manyana as we wait to see if the strat warming impacts favorably on the trop.

Who knows, maybe the strat influence will simply result in the trop PV being pushed across to Greenland where its been largely absent from so far?

Btw, the gfs op does have a split - despite what the temps seem to show - not a big split but it’s a split and it shows further down aswell - check on instant weather maps before assuming from the raw temps

i don’t necessarily agree with the gefs - the eps look more ridgy at day 10 and don’t have the same low anomaly as the gefs later on 

[northwestsnow]

EC det has temps dropping away nicely Xmas eve onwards for my location and much of the North -Boxing day in particular not much above freezing..

A little less cold the further south one heads..

168 onwards though we can see too much energy in the Atlantic to allow for any high to retrogress to where we would it.

As others have said, there seems to be an appetite to sink any high pressure back towards Euroland long term.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

 

Btw, the gfs op does have a split - despite what the temps seem to show - not a big split but it’s a split and it shows further down aswell - check on instant weather maps before assuming from the raw temps

i don’t necessarily agree with the gefs - the eps look more ridgy at day 10 and don’t have the same low anomaly as the gefs later on 

well its an evolving picture Blue, nice to hear eps a little more 'ridgy' than GEFS..

Xmas looks cool/cold depending on location..

[Summer Sun]

59 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

GEM and ECM broadly similar for Christmas. Hoping they have it right because it looks like a white Christmas for my location. 

Looks like parts of eastern Europe could be going into the freezer 

[IDO]

Good consistency again this morning.

This week the trough moving slowly east.

Weekend a mini-ridge in the Atlantic topples (pushed) east over the UK to give us a settled D8-D10.

The GEFS then suggesting heights close to the UK or south so more settled the further south you are.

No indication in the GEFS of any background signals rebooting this current insipid pattern.

The wait continues for what appears the main hope for this Winter, good impacts from the SSW in our sector.

[Seasonality]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Looks like parts of eastern Europe could be going into the freezer 

Thanks @Summer Sun, thats GFS output right?

[bluearmy]

22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

well its an evolving picture Blue, nice to hear eps a little more 'ridgy' than GEFS..

Xmas looks cool/cold depending on location..

no more than yesterday’s 12z run. But clearly more than the gefs

my mid lat high plump seems pretty safe but where it leads is the question .....obviously the gefs would steer more towards a sceuro, e Atlantic or sausage shaped scandi (best case for coldies) as options .... e Atlantic is my current  favoured route 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

no more than yesterday’s 12z run. But clearly more than the gefs

my mid lat high plump seems pretty safe but where it leads is the question .....obviously the gefs would steer more towards a sceuro, e Atlantic or sausage shaped scandi (best case for coldies) as options .... e Atlantic is my current  favoured route 

Do you eps would steer to sceuro etc Blue?

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Do you eps would steer to sceuro etc Blue?

Eps mean says uk centric ......... let’s see how varied the clusters are to see if the mean is a reasonable place days 10/15

the spread at day 10 shows just to our west up towards Iceland as being pretty solid for the upper ridge extension 

Edited December 17, 2018 by bluearmy