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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


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Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    But UKMO > all as it was the only one that had the icelandic high retrograde when ECM / GFS sunk the high

    Anyway watch over the next day or so as things improve to a colder & colder outlook..

    @Sardonixs Thats 00z

    No offence to you so please don't take this the wrong the UKMO is really the only model at current (ECM GFS slowly following that way) that sounds a way to colder conditions 

    It could still go either way through I'm all the way for the colder outlook 

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    Meant to post this last night  but some forecasters saying mild Christmas. At this range ,about any thing could turn up ,strange year weather wise so far ,snow in the forecast tomorrow , STORMY with i

    I'm sorry for being off topic but I'm sure mods will forgive me for this one. Very sorry to hear you're missing your wife, this time of year can be especially hard and you can't just switch off that s

    I love having the FV3 now.  There used to be that dead time between the end of the GFS and the start of the ECM where I had to talk to the wife.  Not any more ?

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Bexley, Kent
  • Location: Bexley, Kent
    12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    But UKMO > all as it was the only one that had the icelandic high retrograde when ECM / GFS sunk the high

    Anyway watch over the next day or so as things improve to a colder & colder outlook..

    @Sardonixs Thats 00z

    No its 12z but only have clusters for 252 hours instead of 240 for some reason..

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

    No offence to you so please don't take this the wrong the UKMO is really the only model at current (ECM GFS slowly following that way) that sounds a way to colder conditions 

    It could still go either way through I'm all the way for the colder outlook 

    No offence at all ?

    We of course need all 3 on board however I would certainly advocate the UKMOs evolution over & above the others progressive nature at the moment as based on the last week or so everytime the progressive them has transitioned from 168 -120 there has been regression to a slower theme with more blocking ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor

    We’ll never get agreement on all 3 models in complex non-zonal situations like this November. It’s a case of keeping tuned to see how the cold pool develops to our NE and starts to influence the undercutting of the lows from the SW.

    Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    18 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

    Some times I step in here and think its the ' I don't like cold so I'm going to annoy people who do thread...

    I don't care if its 384 hours away and as likely to verify as me winning the lottery that's my whole reason for being in here ? 

    Anyway back to the models and as Steve has pointed out I wouldn't be surprised to see the cold runs upgrade as we move towards the next 24 hrs. 

    I just think we are at the stage where we have been all year since the SSW it's a matter of when not if. 

    Then again if it dosent come off this time I will still watch every single chart come out till I'm blue in the face.. 

    Happy hunting.. See you for the 18z. 

    I love cold, snowy weather. Always have. But what annoys me more than anything-else is being promised Snowmageddon, only to be greeted with rain, gales and 11C! Aaaaargh!!:oldangry:

    Let the snow cold hunt continue? :cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Not a great EC mean it has to be said..

    And thats probably being generous..

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
    30 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    No offence at all ?

    We of course need all 3 on board however I would certainly advocate the UKMOs evolution over & above the others progressive nature at the moment as based on the last week or so everytime the progressive them has transitioned from 168 -120 there has been regression to a slower theme with more blocking ?

    Hey Steve

    Did you mention earlier that you was releasing your winter forecast this evening?? If so will that be in your own thread you began a little while back?

    cheers

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield - 228m/748ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Sheffield - 228m/748ft ASL
    12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    The 12z ECM op and mean once again is pretty close through-out on the 850's

    graphe_ens3.thumb.png.f7e59e81b2f3174c4f3e0fee23a351a2.png

    Must be noted that despite the doom and gloom (understandable, given the eye candy we've been treated to in the past couple of weeks in FI), a mean never really getting above 0c at 850hpa still signals a largely blocked setup with no typically zonal weather for the time of year.  

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    37 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

    No offence to you so please don't take this the wrong the UKMO is really the only model at current (ECM GFS slowly following that way) that sounds a way to colder conditions 

    It could still go either way through I'm all the way for the colder outlook 

    Navgem is great tonight.  Not the best model,  but it’s not true to say UKMO is the only one showing cold.

    navgemeu-0-180_ufo6.png

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

    Not liking the look of EC longer term..

    Try again tomorrow then, it’ll be all change.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, Johnp said:

    Try again tomorrow then, it’ll be all change.

    Hope so John ?

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    AT-az-ridging..was after the miss dynamics..going to be order of the day.

    as mass circular (raw) strat bullying became the order!!.

    chucking such large scale complexities(waving) and the chuck of outed polar vortex-modeling,notes the swing and decipher ops-ens and paywall outs- and the like the swing and sway-from eye 2 eye..

    and lets be reasonable..even myself was sucked in!!.

    'however'-..seriously the nor-hem situ is of alarm by the way of non-usual!!!

    and  gain has left*shirt term" only 2 be replaced by LARGE-synoptics given gain..

    1-point missed...4 points 2 gain.

    angular momentum has drafted and been spiteful..

    but only on this occasion!..

    wave act-and the initial momentum thats teased..has in fact 'further ramped up' the point -and destruct...

    its classical wave activity that goes as clockwork- with gain...and sypher!

    and this creates model 'divergence'..

    aligned 4 way structures and-or destruction..along with concise raw model viewing...

    divergence is as massive as it has ever been....

     

    Ozz suites..i think take these as-a pin-pointer..

    Eps!! Block/squeeze refer!!

    Edit;.

    A switch in the 18z suite is a likely sceanario/scenarios..

    For pre-block..height- annoms!!

    gem-ens_z500a_nhem_27 (2).png

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Not sure myself which solution will win out and at day 7 it actually looks the UKMO is about to screw us given the angle of the high pressure over Spain. 

    But out to day 7 at least we have a more or less solid cool/cold easterly flow and the UKMO in particular would have cool upper on the way since the trough penetrates east enough to draw air from Denmark. 

    UN144-7.GIF?19-17&key=236e43aebb9d9d55f3

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    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)

    Amazing how Models are diverging even in the ST but makes it all the more interesting.Over the last 8 years since i have been on the brilliant NW Forums i always feel statistically that the UKMO at T+144 is the most consistent and close to the mark(just going from memory here before i get shot down and my memory not the best lol).Hope it is on the money tonight as if it is i think it is a good route to colder weather for last few days of November into early December? 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    To add to the disappointing EC mean longer term the beeb really becoming bullish about the Atlantic moving in..

    Dont shoot the messenger!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    24 minutes ago, Johnp said:

    Navgem is great tonight.  

    navgemeu-0-180_ufo6.png

    So it's curtains then??

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and winter storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

    Who else remembers when NAVGEM modelled 40c temperatures across the SE in July...? Could you imagine if it started spewing out -20c isotherm-galore charts lol

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    22 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    So it's curtains then??

    I did say it’s not a good model, but hey crop the quote!

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

    It does look as though on this particular occasion it's probably not happening for us or at least that seems to be the broad model concensus. 

    Plenty of twists and turns to come. Winter hasn't even started yet.

    Edited by The Eagle
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    12 minutes ago, Team Jo said:

    <steps out of topic for one post>

    That would correlate with the bbc getting their weather info from Meteo group which I believe predominantly use the EC suite for data and forecasting though. Met office lost the contract last year, so personally I take to their (the met o) YouTube channel for what I feel is a more rounded set of info. There’s some threads on it kicking around in general weather discussion.

    <steps back into topic> 

     

    Thanks Jo ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    Evening All ... operational models just showing how difficult northern blocking is hard to predict...very interesting viewing...

    npsh500.240-2.png

    npsh500-1.png

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    Message added by Paul

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
    • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
    • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
    • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)
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