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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


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Meant to post this last night  but some forecasters saying mild Christmas. At this range ,about any thing could turn up ,strange year weather wise so far ,snow in the forecast tomorrow , STORMY with i

I'm sorry for being off topic but I'm sure mods will forgive me for this one. Very sorry to hear you're missing your wife, this time of year can be especially hard and you can't just switch off that s

I love having the FV3 now.  There used to be that dead time between the end of the GFS and the start of the ECM where I had to talk to the wife.  Not any more ?

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    imageproxy.php?img=&key=d8af95ed7f22db9eNice?? let’s get here then take it from there. T144 is far enough for now for me.

    A852D037-3C27-40CE-8AB6-3BF0CA4F6748.png

    Edited by That ECM
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Naturally GFS decides heights aren't going to drop SE so ECM decides it will pick up the baton through today though much more cut off and further N. If ECM is right then Scandi high would be the next great white(snow) hope.

    ECH1-168.GIF?19-0

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Yes please Matron!

    image.thumb.png.aeebd30f40b039e8e1328307899e524e.png

    ?

    Seriously though, there are a good few cold options to play for - as well as mild of course.

    image.thumb.png.e12b5c4c5f1445d219a35fb765c542ec.png

    An interesting evolution to say the least and a welcome change from the usual zonal grundge. ?

    Edited by Purga
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    JMA siding with ECM but a little better.

    JN192-21.GIF?19-12ECH1-192.GIF?19-0

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Yesterday I had a conversation with someone on here (can’t remember who) and they stated the GEFS were “solid” on no cold. Well.. 

    8545F89E-3CE6-4A9D-89A3-357C13A9F9F2.thumb.png.740fec94618143fc1c7da83193e0d1b2.png

    One day later and they’re once again not solid on anything. Nice clutering on the cold side but probably about an equal number on the warmer side, too. 

    Steps towards a better outcome across the board today.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Oh dear what a drama ! 

    Hard to know what’s going to happen , the ECM wants to go the more Scandi high route . Interestingly heights are a bit lower to the se than on earlier runs.  

    Yeah I always favoured the GFS 12z route and thought the ECM might go that way this evening but nope!

    It is interesting GFS dabbled with the ECM route yesterday before dropping it today so either GFS has sniffed day 7+ out before ECM or it is having a bad day.

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    So earlier we discussed where the next high pressure would come from -

    Building over Scandi in situ- ECM expected to be to progressive -

    UKMO/ JMA blend better

    JMA will be saying no to the atlantic 

    5B48050B-DB7D-4927-A5DB-09518A62DABE.thumb.png.ee75d324b73448aa56cf81d4b30eef4b.png

    Also mentioned earlier was cold uppers building in situ

    Note the JMA 180-192 over the continent to the SE

    0686D789-7F16-4B2C-96B2-5811F98FBF48.thumb.png.1ebf01d45441118f1a662a4649ffca9e.pngB8A87C74-9BCE-4C6F-A61A-121C63FC5530.thumb.png.565e224f73b4441ddc036ca412b1eb06.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
    7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    So earlier we discussed where the next high pressure would come from -

    Building over Scandi in situ- ECM expected to be to progressive -

    UKMO/ JMA blend better

    JMA will be saying no to the atlantic 

    5B48050B-DB7D-4927-A5DB-09518A62DABE.thumb.png.ee75d324b73448aa56cf81d4b30eef4b.png

    Also mentioned earlier was cold uppers building in situ

    Note the JMA 180-192 over the continent to the SE

    0686D789-7F16-4B2C-96B2-5811F98FBF48.thumb.png.1ebf01d45441118f1a662a4649ffca9e.pngB8A87C74-9BCE-4C6F-A61A-121C63FC5530.thumb.png.565e224f73b4441ddc036ca412b1eb06.png

    Well as things are starting to become `interesting` I thought I would come out of hibernation.....

    And then I see the JMA being posted, Steve.... thought this was only pulled out as a last chance saloon...

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    42 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Noting tonight ECM how its backed that shallow feature back East over the last 2 days ( All those moaning about the shortwave spoiler saying how amazing the ECM was ) - its fully transitioned to the UKMO

    2 images below - 120 tonight v 168 2 days ago

    A67482E3-0E17-41D4-9455-3A14B69F0BCC.thumb.png.2e690f82f6b51c0282101aba99567c64.png46070403-6145-4491-B9C8-4A56DE57A781.thumb.png.b38e9ffad0d01b9f118aa44d678df39f.png

    The spoiler biscay low I pointed out days ago has counted down perfectly on the ecm. Still there at T48 - see chart attached. None of the other models spotted this until much nearer the time - especially the gfs parallel which is why it kept on showing those dream like winter nirvana runs. 

    ECH1-48.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Even the JMA is a downgrade on yesterday’s run. Struggling to see the positives if I’m honest. Fingers crossed for better tomorrow 

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    However you omitted the bit about insisting it would stop any form of continental flow following on behind when clearly thats changed towards what was forecast as opposed to whats being observed -

    I said it would stop the frigid air to our north east coming to our shores which is what the gfs parallel persistently showed on it's ops. I termed it as the battle royale between the ecm (which didn't once show those frigid uppers heading our way - due to the spoiler low) and the gfs p which got some people's hopes up. The ecm won that battle. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis

    Charts all over the place, ensembles sitting on the fence. Polar vortex disturbed. No wonder they can't agree. 

    Little wonder the METO says there is no clear signal from the medium to long range. 

    It's a case of when not if and how much. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    However you omitted the bit about insisting it would stop any form of continental flow following on behind when clearly thats changed towards what was forecast as opposed to whats being observed from the former model suites

    Ever so slowly me are moving back into a nice position- UKMO / NAVGEM & JMA all great tonight - the 2 more progressive models ECM & GFS slow to come on board-

    S

    Thank the Lord peeps are only arguing over what the models say, and when (changing one's socks comes to mind?) and not what the real weather might do. Phew!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    I said it would stop the frigid air to our north east coming to our shores which is what the gfs parallel persistently showed on it's ops. I termed it as the battle royale between the ecm (which didn't once show those frigid uppers heading our way - due to the spoiler low) and the gfs p which got some people's hopes up. The ecm won that battle. 

    This is just one example of many. Last Friday's 12z gfs parallel and ecm runs at T120 for this coming weds. The difference is quite stark and unfortunately the ecm came up trumps. 

     

    gfsnh-0-120.png

    ECH1-120.gif

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    Message added by Paul

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
    • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
    • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
    • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)
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