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Paul

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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I personally think daylight isn't relevant other than maybe ice/frost lasting longer. What falls from the sky depends on uppers/dews/thickness etc. Where short days matter is for daytime melt which as we know is our bogey in early Spring

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Problem with that is you then run the risk of no cold uppers reaching us!

That's the pickle. Having the cold air go down the north sea is not ideal. It's the trend that matters at this point though so i'm content for now.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

gfsnh-10-384_npt5.png

SSW = YES PLEASE 

7E694BF0-A4AC-49C7-B7D3-9EB3D8B9E27D.png

Edited by ICE COLD

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

SSW = YES PLEASE 

7E694BF0-A4AC-49C7-B7D3-9EB3D8B9E27D.png

Its certainly not out of the question in late Dec / early Jan from what i can see.

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8 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

A lot of retrogression going on here

blocked, yes, but the heights never really back west though?

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If you have snowcover- (which Feb and myself will almost certainly have if 18z is correct), then the shorter days will make a huge difference, it will assist in the night time temps plummeting for starters - 

🙂

And ice will form earlier in any frosty weather, either way i would much rather have cold weather in Dece than late Feb..

Thats just my preference though, some would prefer cold in late Feb/march i guess? 

Yes I agree but my point is whether snow falls or not isn't helped by shorter days. Obviously prolonging it on the ground does of course help

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A little off topic but have to agree that cold / snow in December is more preferable due to the shorter days and more capacity for ice / frost to keep the temperatures down due to a low sun.

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If you have snowcover- (which Feb and myself will almost certainly have if 18z is correct), then the shorter days will make a huge difference, it will assist in the night time temps plummeting for starters - 

🙂

And ice will form earlier in any frosty weather, either way i would much rather have cold weather in Dece than late Feb..

Thats just my preference though, some would prefer cold in late Feb/march i guess? 

Agree 100%, I say this every year. We saw how cold it can get in December 2010, and the infamous 1981 was bitter in spite of upper air not being particularly cold. For me the best time for snowfall and for it to stick around for a while with ice days is mid Dec to mid Feb. 

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Just now, snowray said:

Agree 100%, I say this every year. We saw how cold it can get in December 2010, and the infamous 1981 was bitter in spite of upper air not being particularly cold. For me the best time for snowfall and for it to stick around for a while with ice days is mid Dec to mid Feb. 

Surely January is the best month for snow cover?

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another day and another set of excellent outputs showing us what want ecmwf 00z and 12z fantastic again how ever I am trying to hold back on getting carried away by those outputs these are not in the time frame of 120-96hours nor is the met office fully on board yet.  MJO forecast look good again going by today's update from what I understand it will be in it's high faze for the next week or so.  This is today's update.mjoupdate. 3RD DECEMBER 2018.pdf

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5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

No idea why some people rave about February cold. It just doesn't have the same feel or sustainability as a spell in December or January. Even by mid Feb it can feel pleasant in the sun during the middle of the day.

  • Because the days are longer to enjoy sledging etc if you have the time
  • Christmas is too busy and mad travelling to enjoy disruption
  • Feb is sometimes boring and cold, but then gets quite fun if you have a snow day, as long as you are safe

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1 minute ago, Bartlett High said:

Surely January is the best month for snow cover?

Yes of course January is good, very little melt from the sun.

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5 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

Surely January is the best month for snow cover?

Its Dec and Jan for me- there are many arguments that Feb should be included, and of course Feb is a winter month afterall- but its the sun  that is the biggest issue, although of course SSTs will be lower than Dec and Europe more often that not will be colder in Feb..

But for me its the low/weak sun in Dec and of course it being Christmas that tips my favourite month for cold weather.

 

Edited by northwestsnow

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... and back to discussing the lovely models, please?! 🙏

Discussion for what month you like the snow can be continued here: 

 

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First week or two of February are ok, but it's all downhill after that, the sun gets too strong. Although if a cold spell starts in early Feb and we get a big freeze, that alters everything, this is when February can be memorable.

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Come on guys, the box that we click in says “ reply to this topic” which is not, what month do I like my snow? Which being a coldie, is any. 😃 somepoor mod has got a lot of deleting to do, including this one😩

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