Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

47 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I bet there are some who'd still find something to moan about with this chart. 

ECE1-216.gif

Only that it’s 9 days away 😉other than that it’s pretty perfect. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM ensemble mean and spread at the key timeframe of T168:

image.thumb.jpg.ddd5d9d4ce14cc4f09148d5137c90d73.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.d8e043cc82c1125fcb4f9f55f1e0fcdf.jpg

Yes some uncertainty in the crucial region, but looks to me like most members have gone for it!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, c00ps said:

Only that it’s 9 days away 😉other than that it’s pretty perfect. 

More interestingly, it's going to last for precisely 32 days...Or was that last week's!:cold:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM ensemble mean and spread at the key timeframe of T168:

image.thumb.jpg.ddd5d9d4ce14cc4f09148d5137c90d73.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.d8e043cc82c1125fcb4f9f55f1e0fcdf.jpg

Yes some uncertainty in the crucial region, but looks to me like most members have gone for it!

EPS 240 has the signal for the Atlantic to begin it's attack, op probably sits smack bang in the middle of the ensembles. The control run if anything is more extreme than the Op with stronger blocking across Scandi in the 7-10 day timeframe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry a bit late on things tonight - not sure if the FV3 had been posted but it is fairly it close to the ECM

gfs-0-204.png?12

My confidence is therefore growing that we might see some sort of easterly next week.

It doesn't look right that both the ECM and the FV3 both break the cold down fairly quickly given their D8 positions (milder air into southern UK by D10 on ECM) but this has been a solid theme on many ensembles - quick bite at the cold but Atlantic too strong for now to sustain an easterly. Or is it? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

252hr EPS.. 

Strong robust Scandi block, Atlantic not really getting very far and energy looks to be heading South. I would expect given GFS means being similar to the EPS that the 12z GFS is too progressive with the Atlantic and is putting too much energy heading Eastwards. 

Not the first time we've been in this situation of course, but for now I'm personally discounting the GFS until it has some support. 1512359042_Screenshot2018-12-03at19_51_18.thumb.png.d56b2d61069fa52322f61d3d63778c2f.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GEFS 12Z ensemble for Suffolk doesn't inspire a great deal confidence, post December 11...?

GEFS Ensembles Chart

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ECM mean isn't supporting the Op yet for those really low 850s. 

graphe_ens3.thumb.png.901fb1e46bdcfebf7db61bfe0ec41e3f.png

Back in Feb and March the mean moved to the Op, in the end, more runs needed as ever to see which way it'll go

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM is a cold outlier so champagne should stay on ice for now!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, shaky said:

Expect gfs to fall in line if not on the 18z then 00z!!what a wonderful ecm though!!

Shaky,you just know the 00z's are gonna be dreadful! 😪😪

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM is a cold outlier so champagne should stay on ice for now!

Tim, have a look at summers graph, nothing is an outlier post the 9th, anything possible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

I bet there are some who'd still find something to moan about with this chart. 

ECE1-216.gif

It’s 9 days away. 

Pretty to look at but the timeframe to moan at. 

Bring it within 4 days then your post has some legs. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

It’s 9 days away. 

Pretty to look at but the timeframe to moan at. 

Bring it within 4 days then your post has some legs. 

Plus it doesn't give a full on countrywide blizzard, which is what we are chasing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Taking stock after the 12s...we're probably still a couple of days away from being able to call the blocked regime bringing in an easterly, certainly taking the day as a whole we've moved a lot closer, UKMO, FV3 and ECM 12z leading the way.  Question maybe over how long lived the spell might be if it happens, but that is very much a secondary question to be resolved later.


Events in the strat equally fascinating, with a SSW now possible within a couple of weeks, has raised the question of will an SSW shuffling the deck just as we've got the trop pattern as we'd like it, mess things up. D'oh! 💀 I don't think it would.  My reasoning is that if a technical SSW (wind reversal at 10 hpa, 60N) were to happen it would be a displacement, not a split, and the strat vortex is already displaced in the direction it would be displaced to (if that makes sense!) it would just enhance the currently developing pattern. ❄️ 🍺

Edited by Mike Poole

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM is a cold outlier so champagne should stay on ice for now!

Was such a tease though, snow streamers developing next Wednesday across eastern England. 

ECMWF_204_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.thumb.png.b6731f3044260e7daea0f540978d2034.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Plus it doesn't give a full on countrywide blizzard, which is what we are chasing.

Thats a once in a lifetime event..

I'm searching for cold, snow is a bonus for me ..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am certainly encouraged by the general trend to build another ridge to our east. 850s look potentially unreliable for forecasting the surface conditions as you could have fairly warm 850s but cold at the surface, especially as the ridge builds folllowing a cold shot from the north/north west.

However we need a deep enough low to develop over Europe to allow the cold air to push west to bring properly cold conditons and of course the chance of snow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Was such a tease though, snow streamers developing next Wednesday across eastern England. 

ECMWF_204_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.thumb.png.b6731f3044260e7daea0f540978d2034.png

Nick, come on... no towel throwing...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Shaky,you just know the 00z's are gonna be dreadful! 😪😪

Yeh seems to be recurring theme recently!!evening runs more amplified then back to rubbish runs in the mornings!!dunno why thats happening to be fair!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Yeh seems to be recurring theme recently!!evening runs more amplified then back to rubbish runs in the mornings!!dunno why thats happening to be fair!

Not sure about that shaky..

UKMO/EC were both very nice this morning..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UKMO extended looks to have the low in the Atlantic a bit closer to the UK and Ireland than ECM 

UKMO                                                               ECM

ukm2.2018121012_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.6f08ef957f2429b67c3c3495b60e9bfb.pngecm2.2018121012_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.390b54304286520765b0f54eb5a2ea9b.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Nick, come on... no towel throwing...

Sat on a slippery rain slick fence for now, at least the EC det. is consistent rather than the chopping and changing 6 hourly GFS runs, consistency from the EC is encouraging.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yeh seems to be recurring theme recently!!evening runs more amplified then back to rubbish runs in the mornings!!dunno why thats happening to be fair!

I'm certain we are not imagining this, happens every year.  If there is a genuine bias I expect it can only come from data being collected at genuinely different times of day as input for the two suites.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’d be interested in that day 10 ECM chart. Straight Easterlies don’t bring snow to West Lancashire generally.

It’s fun watching the chaos elsewhere but we only got a light dusting in March. 

A battleground scenario however would get me polishing the bulb in the back garden spotlight. 👍

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...