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Paul

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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GFS P looks like it’s going to be a belter - maybe we should discuss this more than GFS if it’s the newer more powerful model. Definitely an interesting Strat, I have a feeling Jan is going to be epic!!! 

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

FV3 not interested in the GFS 12z solution-

We all know the GFS energy seperation issues hopefully the FV3 has sorted it out!!

Slightly less amplified but within a margin of error 

looks like it may go a bit more over runny in fi based on the jet at day 8 but it’s well in the general ball game re coldie expectations 

Edited by bluearmy

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FV3 much better...Here are all to runs so far out to T180 (UKMO T144), while we await the ECM.

gfseu-0-180-1.png

gfseu-0-180.png

iconeu-0-180.png

gemeu-0-180.png

navgemeu-0-180.png

UE144-21.gif

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De facto displacement now - big majority cluster i would think.

gensnh-21-7-384_mvl1.png

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5 minutes ago, snowking said:

Absolutely and that is why we should be taking any tropospheric output beyond a few days with some caution right now

image.thumb.png.2717b916ac4128f177ef11d3d19a9c72.png

The Wave 1 displacement, if coupled in the troposphere, would, you would think, give a period of stronger westerlies across the Atlantic in the 10-15 day period. But we'll see how that plays out.

Either way, as we head towards the second half of December, this looks pretty exciting....especially if we can get a secondary warming into the core of the vortex while (if!) it resides in the asian sector, as has been hinted at at 10mb in several recent runs

Nice to see you posting Kris- and great to see the big hitters descending on the thread - 🙂

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7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS P looks like it’s going to be a belter - maybe we should discuss this more than GFS if it’s the newer more powerful model. Definitely an interesting Strat, I have a feeling Jan is going to be epic!!! 

It's parallel for a reason, it still needs to prove itself and it may handle some situations worse

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7 days time on the FV3, around -6 850`s... Will take that.

gfs-1-174.png

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4 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Not gunna be  confitible with models  till metoffice are on board 

Do not mention met office in here there will be war there already was a war today in the right thread to mention that word.

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18 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

How about this for a MEAN at the back end of FI

gensnh-21-5-360.png

Big signal for Scandi heights there.

Having looked through them I think the mean is 'meaningless' in this instance. By the end of FI there is essentially no pattern in the individual GEFS members. Just about every solution you can think of is represented. There are times when the mean can inform but I'm not sure it does on this occasion. Obviously people should look themselves though as others may arrive at a different view. 

Edited by Jason M

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Never comfortable when GFS disagrees. Yes it does go off on one sometimes, but sometimes it’s correct!

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The Fv3/GFS para, the better verifying newer version of the GFS, showing a much nicer cold evolution than its older brother. Still FI I know but this may help to calm those who still panic at every (old) GFS op run. 

gfseu-0-192.png

gfseu-1-192.png

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8 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Having looked through them I think the mean is 'meaningless' in this instance. By the end of FI there is essentially no pattern in the individual GEFS members. Just about every solution you can think of is represented. There are times when the mean can inform but I'm not sure it does on this occasion. Obviously people should look themselves though as others may arrive at a different view. 

Interestingly it’s quite similar to the eps anoms but given that there are five clusters the stuff you mention about the gefs is likely true of the eps !

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35 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Why people get worked up over the gfs I will never know  now if the ecm shows the same then its time to worry    para already different 

Probably because it's the first one out lol

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Still on for a settled spell with overnight frost and fog...Maybe something a tad more interesting if a LP centre ends up somewhere around the low countries...?

Netweather GFS Image

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GFS ensembles inconclusive

graphe3_1000_256_100___.gif

Taking them on FACE VALUE there is relatively weak signal for cold but the stronger signal is for the Atlantic to push in.

Of course they should not be taken at face value but equally they should not be dismissed. 

All we can really gather from them is that there much uncertainty.

I think we are a few days from knowing what form any pattern change will take beyond the Atlantic ridge/Scandi high (which don't guarantee cold) and let's not forget that is itself 7+ days away.

Always good viewing when we are in the chase, on to the ECM.

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Gfs(p) is a blink and you will miss it’s cold snap with little or no snow. Hope the ECM keeps the dream alive this evening ! 

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3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS ensembles inconclusive

graphe3_1000_256_100___.gif

Taking them on FACE VALUE there is relatively weak signal for cold but the stronger signal is for the Atlantic to push in.

Of course they should not be taken at face value but equally they should not be dismissed. 

All we can really gather from them is that there much uncertainty.

I think we are a few days from knowing what form any pattern change will take beyond the Atlantic ridge/Scandi high (which don't guarantee cold) and let's not forget that is itself 7+ days away.

Always good viewing when we are in the chase, on to the ECM.

Bit of a mess Mucks..

Op was indeed an outlier -but as you say, far too much fog that needs to clear..

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The strat chart at the end of the GFS is interesting to me, looks like a new warming at the very end, perhaps the one that cleans up the vortex for good...

image.thumb.jpg.0e3ab196646ae5d892b8d928abb2f0ab.jpg

The rest of the model output holds promise, nothing certain yet though, interesting ECM coming up.

Edit, new warming showing on the FV3 too at T384:

image.thumb.jpg.58d93e645b5840ff7166527c2d0f93e7.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Bit of a mess Mucks..

Op was indeed an outlier -but as you say, far too much fog that needs to clear..

We are still looking at the 9th before things go haywire. We will know by Weds which direction is likely... 

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Para brings a  nice little northerly later on.. the scandy high does its job and disrupts the jet..

We really got to see that azores high get as far north as possible-

 

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