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Paul

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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19 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

Will add if you live in North East USA you will be witnessing a 30 odd degree increase in upper air temperature between 192h and 240 on the ECM! Not a good run for you ha

I’ve decided I will take the two bouts of sub -15c uppers prior to day 8 in exchange for the positive numbers for day 10 !

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Got to admit I was expecting the shape of the pear this morning but it’s all looking pretty damn exciting, have to remember though it’s all a week away atm so don’t get too excited yet but it’s all looking like it may just start to happen...we hope

Edited by markw2680
Mistake

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’ve decided I will take the two bouts of sub -15c uppers prior to day 8 in exchange for the positive numbers for day 10 !

Looks good this morning Blue !!

Even the not as pretty GFS 00z is fabulous Strat-wise!! PV completely relocated to scandy !!

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10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’ve decided I will take the two bouts of sub -15c uppers prior to day 8 in exchange for the positive numbers for day 10 !

Thats the 2nd time you have made me spit my coffee out recently Blue 😂, do you get the feeling the critical 120-144 timeframe is going down to the wire?

I do..

Edited by northwestsnow

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Early one from the eps is more am9lified day 8 and the upper low gets cut off day 9 

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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Early one from the eps is more am9lified day 8 and the upper low gets cut off day 9 

Yes the mean looks better than last night..

Moving in the right direction? i'd say so..

Edited by northwestsnow

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECH1-216_lwr9.GIF

That is a thing of beauty good to see the Americans nice and toasty and the PV taking a kicking. Surely the PV is balancing on the edge like a slot machine just waiting to fall into europe. I think the strat warming will give it that final push. Afterall the papers say we are about to get blasted by the Artic so it has to be true dosent it lol.

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The ECM op goes on both the milder side and colder side of the mean this morning on the 850's

graphe_ens3.thumb.png.013560dc07fba620eae991168502c70e.png

Edited by Summer Sun

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9 hours ago, snowangel32 said:

Does anyone know where to access sea temps because surely if we did get lucky the warmer sea temps would produce massive moisture. Wich could cause very heavy snowfall. Still nail biting now until tomoz but blocking now looks odds on.

click on the maps here

http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Bournemouth-Pier/seatemp

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ECM 240hrs is a snow maker special for some

image.thumb.png.60a6c2069dcf1df71a94bd840ca24851.png

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ECM is outler solution according to ensemble ? I think unless we see MET change forecast then we have to think Atlantic will be too strong over the top.

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6 minutes ago, georgiedre said:

Fergie has tweeted about this winter being colder than average according to the met

I think this is in relation to the contingency planning update today , which now favours a below average temp winter as apposed above average in temperature , an interesting update for cold hunters 

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5 minutes ago, Spanish Dani said:

ECM is outler solution according to ensemble ? I think unless we see MET change forecast then we have to think Atlantic will be too strong over the top.

The spreads say it remains v uncertain - however, I would await the spreads before declaring the op a sypnotic outlier .... control very snowy undercutting story ...not that it matters particularly.....

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An unpleasant weekend coming up...

Netweather GFS Image

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Ian’s comments are for the winter thread methinks - especially as they relate moreso to the lattter part of the season 

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

An unpleasant weekend coming up...

Netweather GFS Image

It's not an ideal chart but t least there will be some rather potent even thundery showers to look out for.

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

An unpleasant weekend coming up...

Netweather GFS Image

hope not, that's 1 chart 6am Sat, comes off like that my location may be okay, just if winds NW'ly it will be wet here, WNW'ly, as chart shows, the rain moves ESE, through Stockport into Derbyshire on ESE track

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gfseu-0-162.png?6

 

The low that deepened rapidly on the 0z and crushed the block is not as developed on the 06z, but there much lower heights coming out of Canada.

0z Vs 06z

Look at the temp contracts feeding the low of canada vs the 06z 
gfseu-1-186.pnggfseu-1-180.png

Edited by frosty ground

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Some lovely, crisp sunny afternoons, once any freezing fog lifts?

h850t850eu.png

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gfseu-5-192.png?6gfseu-5-198.png

The Jet has less energy than the 0z run, the block should hold

Also of note is the better angle on the return loop

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