The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Seasonality]

Nice. ECM continues to shift towards a colder solution in six days time. Always better to see it grasp a signal and move towards it than flail about like a loose fire hose as it has recently. 

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Not even commenting on GFS 00Z as it is pretty grim..

EC 144

Profile to the NE becoming interesting , just need to see the back of those heights across Spain, 1030 mb high needs to do one..

Ha ha. You beat me to it. Yes, those Iberian heights really need to do one. 

[Seasonality]

Hello! Look what's coming in the back door! 

Edited December 16, 2018 by Seasonality

[SLEETY]

Heights over Spain have ruined winters in the past few decades,don’t want to see a trend beginning to show now.Ecm shows what we don’t want to see!

Edited December 16, 2018 by SLEETY

[snowangel32]

7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Heights over Spain have ruined winters in the past few decades,don’t want to see a trend beginning to show now.Ecm shows what we don’t want to see!

Yh Sleety i agree the damm hieghts can be a pain but look at the cold building to our North and East the problem with our last failed Easterly was there wasn't really much cold air to tap into. So on face value it looks grimm but it wouldnt take much for those hieghts to be our friend and then we have all that beautiful cold air waiting in the wings for us.

[northwestsnow]

Less said the better..

OK we wait, but precious little on offer this morning for coldies!

[Radiating Dendrite]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Less said the better..

OK we wait, but precious little on offer this morning for coldies!

ECM look pretty encouraging to the NE.

Given the impending SSW we need to be looking for small steps - it is chaos a few miles above our head at the moment.....good battling evil - give it a chance.

[SLEETY]

6 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Yh Sleety i agree the damm hieghts can be a pain but look at the cold building to our North and East the problem with our last failed Easterly was there wasn't really much cold air to tap into. So on face value it looks grimm but it wouldnt take much for those hieghts to be our friend and then we have all that beautiful cold air waiting in the wings for us.

Yes ,that’s proper cold air building to the NE.The ECM has been pretty useless in fl recently so i’m not going to put any faith in what it shows,probably another warm outlier at the end of its run,yet again!The extended forecasts are going for cold in early January,so we just have to wait it out a while.

[carinthian]

13 hours ago, carinthian said:

Crazy swings from GFS in the past 48 hours for the run up to Christmas. Our team think the low still to sink over England this time next week after a spell of windy or even stormy weather over Southern Britain towards the end of next week. Less certain will the positioning of the high to follow. The problem is the forecast variability of the 300mb polar jet positioning   and likely to be the cause of main models erratic swings at the moment. Lets see what ECM comes up with this time.

C

 

And a happy Sub Tropical Christmas from ECM. Think you know you are in trouble ( cold lovers ) when all the models show the same milder picture at 144t. Can we rescue Christmas from turning down thermostats switch ?  Looking at the short term probably not, however, only 4 days ago we had NElys taking over. Maybe time for a switch again. I will next get an update from what our singular model is showing tomorrow morning and see whether it has come into line with the milder outputs now being shown by the big ones.  I think we will have to see where that high ends up by day 10 as this is possibly not resolved yet. Keep the faith ! ( Northern Cold )

C

[IDO]

The only positive from the runs today, as they are pretty much as expected, it that at the end of the GFS op we have more amplification upstream with a Pacific wave forming:

Unfortunately, there is zero support in the GEFS (ATM), and by then the PV looks to be more organised (may change), so will take time for that to eat into the lower heights so that an Atlantic ridge could pop up! I would welcome a trop driven attack on the PV to make life easier when the SSW effects downwell?

The next 10 days look changeable from the west with little in the way of cold uppers, so average to above temps with a succession of mini-ridges maybe extending north for a drier and milder segue way. Models are consistent on this theme, though variations within those confines.

Best to not look further on as the GEFS offer little guidance and therefore the op is just likely to tell a different story on latter runs:

[mountain shadow]

Precious little encouragement for anything wintry in the short to medium term. 

Despite the trop. PV having been largely absent from Greenland of late we have failed to get a cold pattern into these islands. Concerningly, we are seeing signs of the trop PV being moved over to Greenland as we approach the New Year.

[winterof79]

2 hours ago, Seasonality said:

Ha ha. You beat me to it. Yes, those Iberian heights really need to do one. 

Not until I come back from the Algarve on New Years Eve..... then nirvana please

I'll drag the heights back up through the UK on their way to the Pole

 

Edited December 16, 2018 by winterof79

[winterof79]

1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

Hello! Look what's coming in the back door! 

Yes sneaking on the blind side through Siberia whilst a ridge pumps up toward Greenland.

The change to cold will be swift when it comes.

[Paul_1978]

9 hours ago, North East Blizzard said:

If only i was at the pub, girls are ill so my evening is pretty unexciting, In all seriousness guy is legit, cant make up the kind of knowledge he has, tbf he is only saying what many an expert is now predicting. Wont post links to his tweets because that isn't something i am comfortable with, Anyway guys on here just as knowledgeable predicting similar, so nothing new, hes just very bullish  

With all due respect that’s rubbish - Tweets are in the public domain and anyone can look. Just post a link and let us decide. Not sure why you’re so worried about it. 

[bobbydog]

This chart from the end of the GFS seems to offer little encouragement,

But then this one seemed to offer even less.....

[Frosty.]

Nothing remotely wintry on the latest models so it's back to playing red dead redemption 2 in the snowy mountains for my snow fix!!

[Met4Cast]

I'm sure these were posted last night but I can't be bothered to read back through hundreds of messages this morning.

ECM clusters 12z certainly a step towards mid-almost high lat blocking going forward. 

Day 10 sees high pressure build North in the Atlantic having the majority, even cluster 2 wouldn't be a terrible option. 

We then see that transfer North-Eastwards towards Scandinavia, likely ushering in increasing cold temperatures (cluster 3 would be preferable if we got to pick, however. Cluster 2 is yuck).

Not terrible.. certainly a move towards a more blocked theme within the EPS yesterday. Overnight EC/GFS were rubbish for cold so lets hope the cluster charts continue throwing in a little hope. 

 

[Bradowl]

26 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Not until I come back from the Algarve on New Years Eve..... then nirvana please

I'll drag the heights back up through the UK on their way to the Pole

 

Leave it for me and I'll bring it up on my return from Costas on 8th. 

[mulzy]

The ext EPS continue to show higher heights over the middle latitudes even extending a touch further north than the last few suites.  Promising signs - clusters will be interesting viewing.

[Scandinavian High.]

Are we seeing models being progressive again this chart at 120   is a week away I expect when we get to this time frame low could be further south and not so intense with some pressure build to north west or north east  being more of a player could be wrong but some times  you need sit and try and read between the lines 

[bluearmy]

The 00z eps offer a route forward but it’s a slow burner ......mid lat ridging nw Europe and eastern Atlantic which exerts itself slowly nw towards se Greenland (NOT A GREENY HIGH).  at the same time an Atlantic trough dropping just west of the Azores and a developing scrussian trough could lead to an undercut of this ridge 

note that Europe cools as we reach the end of week 2 which makes me think the trough to our east will be advecting some colder air  around the ridge 

[blizzard81]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The 00z eps offer a route forward but it’s a slow burner ......mid lat ridging nw Europe and eastern Atlantic which exerts itself slowly nw towards se Greenland (NOT A GREENY HIGH).  at the same time an Atlantic trough dropping just west of the Azores and a developing scrussian trough could lead to an undercut of this ridge 

note that Europe cools as we reach the end of week 2 which makes me think the trough to our east will be advecting some colder air  around the ridge 

Yes, I am very encouraged by the ecm this morning. The op and ens are an improvement going forward compared to the last couple of runs. It seems to be a slow burner like you say. However, I think there is every chance things could be brought forward a few days as the ramifications of the strat warming sink into the model psyche. 

[Summer Sun]

The ECM op has no support for the 25th and 26th when compared to the mean on the 850s. The chances of anything overly cold in the next 10 days or so do look slim though.

[jonboy]

Helen Willett on breakfast weather on the bbc was hinting that a colder and potentially snowy outlook was possible from next weekend and xmas week so not all hope lost

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, jonboy said:

Helen Willett on breakfast weather on the bbc was hinting that a colder and potentially snowy outlook was possible from next weekend and xmas week so not all hope lost

The mean will of course contain various clusters .......... I would love to see the eps strat data ..... hopefully ventrice uses one of his ‘free tweets’ in the next day or so .....