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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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1 minute ago, North East Blizzard said:

If only i was at the pub, girls are ill so my evening is pretty unexciting, In all seriousness guy is legit, cant make up the kind of knowledge he has, tbf he is only saying what many an expert is now predicting. Wont post links to his tweets because that isn't something i am comfortable with, Anyway guys on here just as knowledgeable predicting similar, so nothing new, hes just very bullish  

Due diligence is severely missing on here. 

And in all seriousness, one thing i've noticed this Winter is that the LRFs are noticeably diverse.

My own view is that heights to our South/ South West and to our East will see a 'resident trough' over Blighty for much of Winter. Probably relenting towards end Jan/early Feb.

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Potential for a cold Christmas from the para ... 

C986A55E-39F7-4816-AF15-35027E380D5B.png

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Hints of the ridge on the GEFS.

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16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hints of the ridge on the GEFS.

Ensembles don't look too pretty to me.

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The 18z GEFS for christmas days are one of the blandest yet, with the parallel being the best on offer. Many rather mild runs on there unfortunately.

image.thumb.png.50a89c3b963d7d5ea19ad867f2213d2d.png

Pretty frustrating that as soon as the 12z output came out yesterday with some promise for the christmas period, things have markedly swung the other way to mild again. Gutted... 10 days away but we would have to see a dramatic change for something really wintry. Best I can hope for is a toppler northerly or a brief cold zonal spell.  

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Just in from the pub.

Interesting to see the GFS with a Scandi high and easterly at the end of its run. Wonder if it's starting to pick up on strat developments and if we'll start to see some stellar charts appearing.

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10 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

The 18z GEFS for christmas days are one of the blandest yet, with the parallel being the best on offer. Many rather mild runs on there unfortunately.

image.thumb.png.50a89c3b963d7d5ea19ad867f2213d2d.png

Pretty frustrating that as soon as the 12z output came out yesterday with some promise for the christmas period, things have markedly swung the other way to mild again. Gutted... 10 days away but we would have to see a dramatic change for something really wintry. Best I can hope for is a toppler northerly or a brief cold zonal spell.  

10 days is a long time, whatever they're showing 2day... probably won't be within 75% in 3 days time, never mind 10?? Just saying :hi:

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Just now, Law of averages!! said:

10 days is a long time, whatever they're showing 2day... probably won't be within 75% in 3 days time, never mind 10?? Just saying :hi:

We can hope... though the milder runs are zonal in character , it's hard to see where any sudden notable cold may come from. If there was a few really cold runs in there I wouldn't be so pessimistic but the best in there is fleeting cold behind passing low pressure systems.

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59 minutes ago, North East Blizzard said:

If only i was at the pub, girls are ill so my evening is pretty unexciting, In all seriousness guy is legit, cant make up the kind of knowledge he has, tbf he is only saying what many an expert is now predicting. Wont post links to his tweets because that isn't something i am comfortable with, Anyway guys on here just as knowledgeable predicting similar, so nothing new, hes just very bullish  

Or just full of "bullish"....

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Get that energy into east of Greenland and it’ll help build the high into West Greenland/Iceland and all will fit into place (towards a cold incursion). 

It’s really tough viewing at the moment but be patient. It was quite a special summer, and odds are this winter will be special too.

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