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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Gfs 00z looks like cold zonality..

Well in about 400h it may pay off. 216h that same feature is still there... 

Edited by Dave Kightley

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Not much diffrence to my untrained eye there is slightly more amplification but ridge looks a tad east to me. Close but more upgrades needed. Greenland looks exposed

 

npsh500(2).thumb.png.d3f50f129c1692868d5a1070c432f277.pngnpsh500.thumb.png.4a5338e385374674c2b9d9b5385f3923.png

 

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2 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

288h Look at the GFS!

The pv looks in all kinds of trouble i predict fun and games chrismas week.

  • Like 4

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO let it snow

7594515A-FF8E-46DA-AED7-920E287C53BF.thumb.png.9e3077b06cb9c03c04b538b9fa5f381c.png

Credit Steve you said the Models would overplay the Atlantic lows and Jet stream and the block would be more robust. Yep a snow day according to UKMO.

  • Like 6

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Cracking GFS FL and the 500hpa charts at the end are something else too.. Pick where you want high pressure too its coming up from everywhere! 

Edited by Dave Kightley
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 as I have said on my post on Thursday let’s not give up on next week and deliver a verdict after the 12 hours runs on Friday and see where we are  and I have to say so far so good the models have certainly turned them self around although it’s not the best but beggars can’t be chooses.  any way I still find the ECMWF guilty for putting all met weather member through all that stress.

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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Merry Christmas ... 

 

16E346F6-8FB7-4890-ACFB-8179DAF4982C.png

BA441F54-4E1D-48F5-B034-56DD697106EE.png

835CA25A-A953-47DA-90C0-167B68ED93AB.png

Thought it might be a potentially snowy FI..

  • Like 5

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16 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Christmas Eve just came into view on the 00z. And very much for fun only, it would be ding dong merrily on high, and those dreaming of a white Christmas would just have to look out the window. :santa-emoji::reindeer-emoji:

gfs-0-384 (1).png

gfs-1-384 (1).png

gfs-2-384.png

gfs-16-384 (3).png

If 2/3 of the country see snow falling Christmas Eve..Ding Dong Merrily!!

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Just now, tinybill said:

:drinks:

gfs-2-384.png

Stellas in the fridge!

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1 minute ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

 

Ohhh no, if this comes off the Mother-in-Law might not be able to make it down for Christmas !!!

 

she  would  be down on  her broom stick

 

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Its going to be a Euro full house today 😮

3E9BF2F1-6658-4530-B8E8-D88C76F25A67.thumb.png.791858f6db5bf4f51a7f2f6a54e70983.png

 

Bing crosby?

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Hmmmmm...

Not so sure about 144 tho steve?

Dont know what to make of EC..

Edited by northwestsnow

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