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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

6z left, 00z right

6z.thumb.png.fb73f4393bf72d1a9b7b261921b72d0e.png00z.thumb.png.91267fd0a72d9cb12e53d48c14624295.png

Much, much more amplification on the 6z compared with the 00z run - Going in the right direction 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

We are still well on course..

Xmas period...

Without even mention-of the massive script for ridging..

The large siberian lobe...screams the evolving forms !!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

6z left, 00z right

6z.thumb.png.fb73f4393bf72d1a9b7b261921b72d0e.png00z.thumb.png.91267fd0a72d9cb12e53d48c14624295.png

Much, much more amplification on the 6z compared with the 00z run - Going in the right direction 

Looks better to our North west for sure..

Thrice bittern thrice shy with GFS though, for me..

 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

nice move forward. Not difficult to see it going cold from there

 

 

D88A0050-8DD0-43C6-9A0A-F739528F9D7E.png

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

nice move forward. Not difficult to see it going cold from there

 

 

D88A0050-8DD0-43C6-9A0A-F739528F9D7E.png

Certainly not a million miles away here...

 

gfsnh-1-210.png

Edited by Stuie W
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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

Wouldn't take a whole lot of tweaking to get some colder air in for Christmas day from here..

Better.thumb.png.b819741d2255e3f833ee98d99e58dfd0.png

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted
11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Acc to Retron on TWO eps dont offer much hope either- a 10% chance of an air frost by the 29th ..

Fraid i will be ignoring any hope offered by the BBC forecast..

All that said, its still mid Dec so very early in proceedings , although i would say i would want to be seeing better NWP products than we are currently being subjected to!

why are you ignoring the long term forecasts from the meto and others on here.Its end of dec into january that the forecast of much colder weather is being forecasted not dec! ,do you just ignore what the experts are banging on about for the last few weeks.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

why are you ignoring the long term forecasts from the meto and others on here.Its end of dec into january that the forecast of much colder weather is being forecasted not dec! ,do you just ignore what the experts are banging on about for the last few weeks.

No.. i was referring to the post about Helen willetts..

No reason to doubt the longer term potential

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
1 minute ago, booferking said:

What's all this talk about bbc weather update shows nothing of interest in video forecast for week ahead? 

It was a comment about Xmas week mate.

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

WRT to Helen Willet-gate..

i would be delighted if she is proved correct and we do see a flip in the NWP, call me doubting Thomas but i doubt very much there is much evidence to back that theory up?

It would help if the original poster could elaborate on what she said exactly!

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Somerset Squall Seasoned

Somerset Squall

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted (edited)

Encouraging changes so far to the GFS 06Z, the Atlantic seems more held back by Xmas eve with better mid-atlantic ridging, let's see if this trend continues. Helen Willets said a chance of things turning colder for Xmas week, she only said a chance and she is right, that chance is there and I am encouraged by the 06Z so far. I wouldn't be surprised to see further upgrades for cold potential in the coming days.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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lassie23 Maestro

lassie23

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted
7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

We just need that LP to move SE, and the doors will be open:Netweather GFS Image

We just need the UK to migrate to Scandinavia, can this be done by Christmas Day? ⛔

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cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted
10 minutes ago, Johnp said:

It would help if the original poster could elaborate on what she said exactly!

It would also help if it was posted in the correct Thread

C.S

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Paul White. Enthusiast

Paul White.

Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Winters
  • Location: Huddersfield
Posted

Maybe i need to check my browser. I am pretty sure this is the "Hunt for cold" thread.and not the "I want to air my negative comments about it not snowing in my garden at Christmas thread" 

 

I couldn't find the moaning thread link to copy into this post. That maybe the place foe some members to vent out some frustration.

 

And yes I know "The irony"

 

Seasons greetings to all and may all of your winter wished be fulfilled.

 

 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

I’d urge a lot of caution with Christmas week . 

The ridge toppling towards Scandi isn’t impossible , even if you look at the ECM you’ll note the PV set up running more sw/ne would allow for pressure rises towards Scandi.

The ECM has a slack pattern over much of the Atlantic from day 7. It’s looks very messy but it’s not a lost hope .

The slow down in zonal winds and then reversal could see some quick changes.

 

Edited by nick sussex
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Eps clusters are singular days 5 thru 7 (and this is a consistent rather than wide spread solution). 

Thereafter, tough to pin a tail on the donkey ......... there is a wintry cluster at 20% ......it’s not out of the question but the mid lat ridge looks a safer bet for the time being .....

 I did see that gfs 06z op ended in the same place as the extended eps mean ..........

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