The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Scandinavian High.]

Gfs has nalid it we are going into the freezer. I wish...

[Methuselah]

00Z GEFS ensembles for Cambridge:

   850s don't indicate anything all that special.

 A definite trend towards rising SLP.

 

 2m temps show a fall of sorts...?

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I think it might just be acceptable to start getting a wee bit excited. Even more so after GFS 06Z this morning.

[bobbydog]

So the GFS gives us a Greenland high,

 

A white Christmas in The East

 

And even a little love for Scandi...

[sorepaw1]

06z precip charts for fun .

Xmas day.

Looking good for a Greenland high development. 

[MP-R]

Just outside the reliable continues to look very promising for cold as has been shared already by so many.

It also looks like next week won't be quite as wet as I first thought. Unsettled certainly, as it has been for a while now, but not 'mobile' as such. Although conditions at the surface have resembled a zonal train recently, Synoptics tell a different story and next week similarly shows sluggish lows which, we are unfortunately, on the wrong side of for cold. That said, other than late tomorrow and Tuesday, temperatures remain generally average through next week, perhaps a bit above at night. Next weekend may even see the start of the first cold 'spell' rather than 'snap' as we have now.

[Chesil View]

Well that's a rather nice run from the GFS 06z. The most interesting thing about it is that it is quite a plausible evolution given where the background signals are heading

[Frosty.]

On 13/12/2018 at 07:49, Frosty. said:

Potentially i see plenty of potential for some wintry weather in the run up to crimbo!

The Gfs 6z operational backs up my thoughts yesterday!!!!..fingers crossed c o l d i e s!!..let's hope we see a wintry xmas / new year!!..and a good Brexit deal...nah that's probably too optimistic!!

Edited December 14, 2018 by Frosty.

[Purga]

GFS 06z far FI chart is just perfect.

Consistent hints at a potential white Christmas for many.

Then leading onto.......

Setting up for a bitter easterly

Sub -10 850hPa's incoming

Very cold snow covered Europe

Just has to verify at +384hrs - what could possibly go wrong?

 

[syed2878]

 and excellent  GFS6 hours run for called and who knows possibly snow in the mean time there are warnings for snow and ice tomorrow even an amber warning from the Met office for those of you who are up north so enjoy tomorrow and let the model fun begin soon 

Edited December 14, 2018 by syed2878

[swfc]

Think the 6z gfs para probably more realistic if somewhat half hearted.Still not a bad start today hopefully euros come up trumps later .

[Ventnor Viking]

16 hours ago, Ben Lewis said:

17 days on and your opinion looks to be gathering strength 

Transient snow for most northern areas of England and Scotland Saturday before temps rocket back up to close double figures,  but apart from that no real cold in the reliable, but perhaps January can deliver, the beginning rather than the end 

Hi Ben - Indeed, I agree that it will be more mid Jan (I think I updated y thoughts on that in other posts). It looks like there are attempts to get things colder for Xmas but the likely hood is that it wont be as cold as it is modelling now. 

With the the way NH profile is looking shaping up its normal to see lots of different scenarios put out there, which is always easy on the eye, but its equally important to keep perspective as well. 2-3 weeks from now the models should hopefully be showing something consistent and with the help of a much talked about SSW could bring us a decent set up for cold     

[Summer Sun]

GFS op on it's own pretty much for the near -10 850's over Christmas the mean remains steady around 0

 

Edited December 14, 2018 by Summer Sun

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Not a huge amount of support for the GFS op yet for the cold Christmas

 

Control goes the same way as the op until Christmas day all to play for, good to see snow chances are growing for Christmas Day..

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

P17 not far off a split stratospheric warming at the end after the initial displacement event 

also plenty of potential at the end of the run 

P8 with some snow around just after Christmas

 

and a few charts showing the wintry potential for tomorrow with rain, sleet, freezing rain and snow 

 

 

 

   hopefully the HIRLAM has it right and we will be needing dug out 

@More Snow 

 

[Summer Sun]

Major flip from JAMSTEC now signalling an above average winter temp wise

 

[Astral Goat Juice]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Major flip from JAMSTEC now signalling an above average winter temp wise

 

You know this is "The Hunt For Cold Thread" right ? 

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Major flip from JAMSTEC now signalling an above average winter temp wise

 

Looks like above average almost worldwide doesn’t look right to me 

[swfc]

Just now, Astral Goat Juice said:

You know this is "The Hunt For Cold Thread" right ? 

wow nearly all the planet above average then

[Light Without Heat]

Maybe worth an Xmas punt down the bookies for many locations down the east

[Froze were the Days]

Not the first time the JAMSTEC has flipped...have little faith in that model (refer back to late October/November in the winter 2018/18 thread for more info).

[Chesil View]

25 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Major flip from JAMSTEC now signalling an above average winter temp wise

 

Presumably SSW must stand for solidly suspect warming in Japanese then.

[ICE COLD]

30 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Major flip from JAMSTEC now signalling an above average winter temp wise

 

Come on Gavin don’t start throwing ya toys about because everything is pointing towards a lovely looking cold spell towards January . Cant believe you’ve gone to the extent of getting your red crayons out and colouring in the whole globe . 

[ICE COLD]

12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Another fantastic update from exeter..even better than yesterday regarding the end of Dec and especially through January!!..and some very encouraging signs from the models, especially the Gfs 6z operational!!..coldies may be in luck this winter with cold winter hazards grabbing the headlines for a change!!!!!!

That is one of the best Meto updates I’ve ever read . And it could start at the end of the month . Where is @feb1991blizzard ? Thought he would be lovin this . 

[matt111]

People always say they take more notice of the models when the Met Office are onboard. Are they taking notice now?