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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

Around Xmas is what we should be focusing on now. We have lost the current round, forget the blink and you will miss it easterly bs. Onto the next round.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Chanches growing for new block around christmas days

gfs-0-324.png

In the meantime, we'll just have to enjoy a sheet sandwich?

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe
  • Location: Crewe
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The resolution for the end of the weeks event is about 48-60 hours away for the GFS...

Hi Steve

 

I love your teasing posts... joking aside what is your current thoughts with how it will play out in the end?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Some good news: the Para at T+75 has virtually the entire country in the cold air...

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
52 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Whoops  sorry  yes  this far East  Latest Arpege showing this  hitting a brick wall in the Irish Sea

......hopefully coastal Irish Sea.

(IMBY)

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
53 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Whoops  sorry  yes  this far East  Latest Arpege showing this  hitting a brick wall in the Irish Sea

Something like this Weirpig?

Navgem 06z.

navgem-0-96.png

navgem-0-108.png

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
20 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Going down... Bottom floor...

HAplot101218-1123.thumb.png.0cc30e7f1367ef7558427c3349fdac8d.png

It's getting there hopefully. With one slightly bonkers member going for -20 m/s. In December!

 

 

Yeah, I posted about that on the Strat thread. It's actually -30m/s. There are no GEFS archives though, so I can't find that member. 

Edit: Oh, the chart in the Strat thread is 65N, not 60N.

Edited by Yarmy
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Just a note - the eps clusters reveal the op was progressive by day 6 and two slightly larger clusters push an upper ridge up from the south before the Atlantic pushes in - that may complicate things if the Atlantic jet isn’t modelled accurately 

in the mid term, the Atlantic trough keen to dig towards Iberia - that could throw up a new scandi ridge by day 10

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Might as well post this, about as useful as the navgem

87F22931-1261-464A-9D6D-F34731ECA7B5.jpeg

 It's improved a lot though since its last upgrade, thats what I've heard anyway, MO and SM rate it...I think. Oh dear, am I clutching at straws already?:crazy:

 

Anyway GFS has hardly been consistent, pile of rubbish, ECM and UKMO the king and Queen of models. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Para for Friday...that's some westward adjustment!

Netweather GFS Image

But, alas, by Saturday, the fat lady is whining with full voice!

Netweather GFS Image

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Longer term, most modelling going for the Alaskan ridge to replace the current trough - downstream eastern USA trough - what then happens with the jet and can we generate a downstream n Atlantic ridge to deflect it into Europe, leaving us on the cold side ?? 

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
2 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

I was saying that the UKMO 00z run is a backtrack (in terms of cold longevity and snow) compared to its previous (12z) run. That’s not my opinion or forecast,  it’s just a factual report of the output. I think it’s only fair for members who don’t view the models and come in here to get a report to find out what is actually shown. I know it’s the ‘hunt for cold’ and I’m as desperate as everyone for some snow, but a little reality needs to be injected occasionally 

Sorry don't take offense.

I totally agree must try to word things bit better.

I think I might been better just to say it's 50/50 and that the models including the ukmo does have the Atlantic winning out.

But there's equal chance that the cold and Scandinavian block will disrupt enough energy south southeast to allow wiggle room for heights.

I'd prefer a northerly or north easterly with Atlantic and Greenland location blocked.

But of course this is just an apitiser.

were waiting for the main course.

 

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Para 300h

gfsnh-10-300.png?6

That's a toasted vortex split or displaced or reversal ?

Anyone else getting the feeling we could have an equally strong warming event like February 2018 record breaker.

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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
30 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Going down... Bottom floor...

HAplot101218-1123.thumb.png.0cc30e7f1367ef7558427c3349fdac8d.png

It's getting there hopefully. With one slightly bonkers member going for -20 m/s. In December!

 

 

well lets hope its a trendsetter and not an outlier ....

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
1 minute ago, MR EXTREMES said:

That's a toasted vortex split or displaced or reversal ?

Anyone else getting the feeling we could have an equally strong warming event like February 2018 record breaker.

It gets even warmer in the hours following.  very similar to the last run  interesting January for sure. 

gfsnh-10-324.png?6

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