The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Cheshire Freeze]

Initiation of the potential SSW is now heading towards the day 10 time frame

12z gives us a bigger warming late on than the 6z did

 

Edited December 7, 2018 by CreweCold

[ICE COLD]

This is now getting closer , it’s starting around day 12 . 

The PV is in a right old state. 

[Singularity]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Initiation of the potential SSW is now heading towards the day 10 time frame

12z gives us a bigger warming late on than the 6z did

The greater resilience of blocking is inherently linked to the warming magnitude as stated earlier .

Still the typical GFS handling of a battleground situation beyond a week's range but at least we've (at last) seen a step in a more favourable direction from it this evening. Hopefully the first of many, though it may stumble at times based on past experience!

[cheeky_monkey]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

This is now getting closer , it’s starting around day 12 . 

The PV is in a right old state. 

looks like a classic el nino set up to me

[Seasonality]

21 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Are we really sure?  Tonight's ECM is critical as ever but if it shows a significant westward shift then who knows?

Yes, tonight's ECM really will be one to watch. Stronger block and less punch to those atlantic weather weather bombs in the 12z output so far. It'll be interesting to see what the ECM makes of it. Arguably a model much less inclined towards progging oceanic dartboards. 

[snowking]

7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

This is now getting closer , it’s starting around day 12 . 

The PV is in a right old state. 

That is one hell of an Aleutian low too - combine that with the resilient Scandinavia/Siberian high, and what do you get?

The atmosphere is cooking up something tasty, it’s in the prep stages at the moment, but it’s getting ready to turn the oven on....

[nick sussex]

After what seemed relentless dowgrades a change of fortunes on especially the UKMO .

More trough disruption and very close to importing some cold air to undercut any fronts moving east.

Still time for more changes and I’d be dubious of anything post day 6 as the models might still disrupt more energy as the next low moves in after that .

[shaky]

Have a feeling tonights ecm will be horrendous!!!the lows to the west are just far too deep!!even if its a slight upgrade on 12z i will be happy!

[cyclonic happiness]

I must say, i'm loving these updates from the Met Office, they do explain things well

 

 

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

After what seemed relentless dowgrades a change of fortunes on especially the UKMO .

More trough disruption and very close to importing some cold air to undercut any fronts moving east.

Still time for more changes and I’d be dubious of anything post day 6 as the models might still disrupt more energy as the next low moves in after that .

My concern with UKMO , although the scandy high disrupts the first low, is another horrid little fellow sweeping across the Atlantic which may do the damage..

Ive said it a few times now, these lows forming off the ES are utterly relentless , i still feel the atmosphere is pre-disposed to blocking but these lows are a huge achilles heel.

[ICE COLD]

11 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

looks like a classic el nino set up to me

Is it ? That chat is not the norm for mid December , the pv is in bits . There is ridges of high pressure around the hole globe and that warming predicted will take the pv down . There is no circle shape pv and massive purple blob . Can only be good news going forward. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Ive said it a few times now, these lows forming off the ES are utterly relentless , i still feel the atmosphere is pre-disposed to blocking but these lows are a huge achilles heel.

On the contrary they're helping the long game. The energy being sent across the Atlantic is interacting with the omnipresent Siberian heights, allowing it to constantly inflate on its western limb. Combined with the Aleutian low, it's setting the wheels in motion for the expected SSW. It's a pattern that I said back in October that I wanted to manifest.

[Duane S.]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

My concern with UKMO , although the scandy high disrupts the first low, is another horrid little fellow sweeping across the Atlantic which may do the damage..

Ive said it a few times now, these lows forming off the ES are utterly relentless , i still feel the atmosphere is pre-disposed to blocking but these lows are a huge achilles heel.

But, if the models have been under estimating trough disruption, things could get very interesting. GEFS will be interesting.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

CFS seems very determined on a mild pest from the west themed December rather than an icy beast from the east. I've been watching this run for a couple of weeks now and run after run it seems consistent with stormy conditions, some runs just continue the same stormy theme right into middle of January 2019.   

[Cheshire Freeze]

 

2 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

CFS seems very determined on a mild pest from the west themed December rather than an icy beast from the east. I've been watching this run for a couple of weeks now and run after run it seems consistent with stormy conditions, some runs just continue the same stormy theme right into middle of January 2019.   

Every raw run I've seen over the past 48 hrs has shown significant polar height anomalies for January

Edited December 7, 2018 by CreweCold

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

On the contrary they're helping the long game. The energy being sent across the Atlantic is interacting with the omnipresent Siberian heights, allowing it to constantly inflate on its western limb. Combined with the Aleutian low, it's setting the wheels in motion for the expected SSW. It's a pattern that I said back in October that I wanted to manifest.

Well we will have to see Crewe- i cant play the long game if the end result is victory 

UKMO does offer hope closer to now, lets see if EC has a change of heart with the trough disruption this evening..

[kumquat]

1025 mb scandi hp 6hrs earlier on this run than last one

[Weathizard]

Control run is frustratingly close, the trend this afternoon is that the low will not just bulldoze the block, will it be enough? Possibly not but it’s a knife edge setup and should changes continue, you never know.

 

Wouldnt bother with the ensembles they are a real mess, no real guidance can be taken. Crucial ECM coming up, hoping for a continued game westward trend

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

CFS seems very determined on a mild pest from the west themed December rather than an icy beast from the east. I've been watching this run for a couple of weeks now and run after run it seems consistent with stormy conditions, some runs just continue the same stormy theme right into middle of January 2019.   

Pretty shore @Mike Poolehad been posting the cfs recently and it was showing northern blocking galore. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Pretty shore @Mike Poolehad been posting the cfs recently and it was showing northern blocking galore. 

CFS fully behind a SSW now. These individual raw runs of the CFS should begin to filter into the mean runs on the NOAA site over the next couple of days.

Edited December 7, 2018 by CreweCold

[damianslaw]

17 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

After what seemed relentless dowgrades a change of fortunes on especially the UKMO .

More trough disruption and very close to importing some cold air to undercut any fronts moving east.

Still time for more changes and I’d be dubious of anything post day 6 as the models might still disrupt more energy as the next low moves in after that .

The theme of the year has been for the atlantic to hit the buffers against blocking to our east, currently we are seeing the trough inching further east than in many a recent month, but hardly with any real force, at a time of year when it should be all steam ahead, early Dec is renowned for its westerlies.. Alas lets wait and see whether it disrupts next week or holds its way into the N Sea, against the block.

Notable how the GFS and UKMO are showing a more resilient block to our NE, just within the reliable. Will ECM follow suit?

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

These are the runs ive been watching

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=360&mode=0&carte=0&run=12

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Pretty shore @Mike Poolehad been posting the cfs recently and it was showing northern blocking galore. 

It was showing a strong -AO signal for December but I haven't looked for a while, as the focus has been on the shorter range output.  That doesn't necessarily equate to a -NAO, though, so there could well have been some stormy individual runs there too.

Edited December 7, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

17 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

CFS fully behind a SSW now. These individual raw runs of the CFS should begin to filter into the mean runs on the NOAA site over the next couple of days.

That's that buggered, then!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

The theme of the year has been for the atlantic to hit the buffers against blocking to our east, currently we are seeing the trough inching further east than in many a recent month, but hardly with any real force, at a time of year when it should be all steam ahead, early Dec is renowned for its westerlies.. Alas lets wait and see whether it disrupts next week or holds its way into the N Sea, against the block.

Notable how the GFS and UKMO are showing a more resilient block to our NE, just within the reliable. Will ECM follow suit?

hopefully going the right way Damian to avoid a very wet Thursday. GFS still going for the washout, but trending west, unsure of precip on UKMO chart for Thurs? looks like rain in far west? bit optimistic to expect a dry day maybe, see where EC goes