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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The cardi'vascular..

Of the osophegus...of heights ..being tried!!!

But the stent..WILL LIKELY BE PUT IN PLACE!!!

@atlantic pushing...#mass scandi block..

The fizzke out..is being VASTLY-undermined!

Ive just put that in Google translate it came back with... Snow lots of it at some point in the near future.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

T180 is out before the previous frames and it's definitely a shift Eastwards, though still some good trough disruption 

180.thumb.png.e5bd2d7480562a5ec5ece2bfd49c8273.png

Never seen a model run like it!

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, evans1892 said:

Something clearly going wrong with the 18z run roll out on Meteociel. Fragmented.

Yeah!

fragmented trough against the block at 180.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

18z..mass data output/input issue.

Frames are deviant!!!

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Just now, MattStoke said:

Seems to have frozen again? In fact, 156 and 180 hours has updated but 144, 150 and 162 to 174 hours haven’t.

 

1 minute ago, evans1892 said:

Something clearly going wrong with the 18z run roll out on Meteociel. Fragmented.

Yes sorry, there are some missing files on the NCEP servers, they're coming very slowly. I try to get and draw the ones that are present. The files are correct though, no data corruption.

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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom

gfs-0-180.png?18

Interesting viewing.. I'm hoping for that low to slide SE and the High to start retrogressing W. One can hope

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)

It is regretful but GFS18Z  is yet another downgrade at +180hrs Atlantic the dominating feature across the UK, more progressive than the 12Z which was also more progressive than the 0Z. Concerning for those who want a long cold spell. Such synoptic cannot be ignored unfortunately.

gfs-0-180.png

Edited by AppleUK 123
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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

T180 is out before the previous frames and it's definitely a shift Eastwards, though still some good trough disruption 

180.thumb.png.e5bd2d7480562a5ec5ece2bfd49c8273.png

Never seen a model run like it!

Is it a good model run Dan 

I can't load the out put for some reason. 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, sorepaw1 said:

Is it a good model run Dan 

I can't load the out put for some reason. 

I wish I knew..

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I can see that Murr sausage getting dragged west toward greenland.. it may only be a small sausage mind but hey beggars cant be choosers. sorry Steve..

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
5 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I do like your posts but I need a dictionary next to me every time I read them!!

never mind keep up the good work

The worrying thing is I'm starting to understand @tight isobar's posts without the need for a dictionary, or having to read them 3 times. I assume that just means I spend too much time on here.

Now if only I could decipher the 18z as easily, what with it only showing sporadically. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

180 shows a nice snow event across the UK with energy moving SE -

Wont take long before its all going SE - & the block will remain in Situ...

Yes - certainly an upgrade for a snow event.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

180 shows a nice snow event across the UK with energy moving SE -

Wont take long before its all going SE - & the block will remain in Situ...

Brave call

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

216 hours updated.

The GFS and it’s dart board lows! I think this model is secretly hoping that one day we will be wiped off the map.

D4CC44B7-F6EC-4AC0-B96B-8C54AEFBAF5A.jpeg

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

180 shows a nice snow event across the UK with energy moving SE -

Wont take long before its all going SE - & the block will remain in Situ...

Have a feeling the buzz word over the coming days is going to be slider..

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

GFS(P) is running now, maybe we'll have better luck with that one!

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